What is the new US tariff on India after SC order? GTRI pegs average effective rate at 13.4%

The United States’ tariff regime on India has undergone sharp shifts over the past year, ultimately settling — for now — at a temporary 10% across-the-board import duty. According to Ajay Srivastava, Founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), the average effective tariff on Indian exports now works out to roughly 13.4%.

In a February 21, 2026, note, Srivastava explained that the US Supreme Court’s February 20 ruling striking down reciprocal tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) fundamentally reset the tariff structure and altered the India–US trade equation.

How tariffs escalated — and then reset

Over the past year, US tariffs on Indian goods moved through six distinct phases:

Phase 1: MFN-Only (Before April 2, 2025) Indian exports faced only standard Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariffs — the baseline WTO rates. No additional duties applied.

Phase 2: MFN + 10% (April 2–August 6, 2025) The US imposed a 10% reciprocal tariff. Effective burden: MFN + 10%.

Phase 3: MFN + 25% (August 7–August 26, 2025) The reciprocal tariff was raised to 25% — a 150% jump in the additional duty component. Effective burden: MFN + 25%.

Phase 4: MFN + 50% (August 27, 2025–February 6, 2026) Tariffs peaked at 50%, comprising:

25% reciprocal tariff

25% penalty linked to India’s Russian oil purchases

Effective burden: MFN + 50% — five times higher than the original 10% surcharge.

Phase 5: MFN + 25% (February 7–February 24, 2026) The 25% Russia-related penalty was removed. A proposed reduction to 18% under the February 6 Joint Statement was never implemented.

Phase 6: MFN + 10% (February 24–July 26, 2026) After the Supreme Court invalidated the reciprocal tariffs, the US imposed a temporary 10% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 for 150 days. Effective burden: MFN + 10%.

In numerical terms, the additional tariff moved from: 0% → 10% → 25% → 50% → 25% → 10%.

What the reset means for Indian exports

With the removal of the 25% reciprocal surcharge:

About 55% of India’s exports to the US are now freed from the 25% additional duty and have reverted to standard MFN rates.

Earlier burden: MFN + 25% Now for 55% of exports: MFN only

This is a significant cost reduction for more than half of India’s export basket.

Where tariffs still apply

Relief is not universal.

1. Section 232 tariffs remain

Certain sectors continue to face separate national-security tariffs:

50% on steel and aluminium

25% on certain auto components

These are legally distinct from the struck-down reciprocal tariffs and remain in force.

2. 40% of export value was already exempt

Products accounting for roughly 40% of India’s export value — including:

Smartphones

Petroleum products

Medicines

— were already exempt from US tariffs. These goods were never subject to the 25% reciprocal surcharge and remain outside the tariff net.

The Overall Picture

The export breakdown now looks like this:

~55% of exports: Revert to MFN rates (relief from 25% surcharge)

~40% of export value: Already exempt

Steel, aluminium, autos: Continue to face 50% / 25%

Despite the headline 10% temporary tariff, the weighted average impact across sectors leads GTRI to estimate an effective tariff burden of around 13.5% on Indian exports overall.

The key takeaway: while the removal of reciprocal tariffs has provided substantial relief to more than half of India’s exports, sector-specific tariffs persist, and a large share of export value was never affected by the reciprocal regime in the first place.