Who really pays Trump's tariffs? New data says Americans foot 96% of the bill

Americans, not foreign exporters, are bearing almost the entire cost of the tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, according to new research analysing millions of US-bound shipments since the start of the trade actions.

The findings were shared on Monday by Julian Hinz, Head of the Research Center Trade Policy at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, who said detailed shipment-level data shows that 96% of the tariff burden is paid inside the United States.

"A lot has been said about the Greenland tariffs in the past couple of days. We've been looking at the broader picture: who actually pays the tariffs?" Hinz wrote in a series of posts outlining the research.

"We analyzed 25 million shipments worth nearly $4 trillion," he said, before setting out the core conclusion. "The answer: Americans pay 96%. Foreign exporters absorb just 4%."

Hinz said the scale of the tariffs introduced in 2025 had produced a sharp rise in US customs collections. "The 2025 Trump tariffs triggered a $200 billion surge in US customs revenue," he wrote.

That increase, he said, directly contradicts political claims that tariffs are paid by overseas suppliers. "Political rhetoric claims foreign countries 'pay' these tariffs. Our data says otherwise."

According to the economist, the analysis draws on detailed shipment-level pricing data spanning nearly two years. "Using shipment-level data (Jan 2024 - Nov 2025), we find: For every percentage point increase, on average, import prices decreased by 0.04 percent," he wrote. "In other words: $100 in tariff revenue, ~$96 comes from American pockets."

To test whether exporters were absorbing costs through discounts, the researchers examined two major tariff episodes as natural experiments. "We additionally tested this result with two clean natural experiments: Brazil’s 50% tariff and India’s 25-50% tariffs since August 2025," Hinz said.

The outcome, he added, was consistent across cases. "Result? Import prices stayed flat. Trade volumes collapsed instead. Exporters shipped less - they didn't discount."

Indian export data, Hinz said, reinforced the conclusion. "Indian export customs data confirms it: US-bound prices unchanged vs. exports to Europe, Canada, Australia." The impact was seen instead in quantities. "Volumes down 18-24%. Prices? Unchanged."

Summing up the findings, Hinz wrote: "The 2025 tariffs are a consumption tax on American firms and consumers. Full stop." He also addressed a common counter-argument — that if exporters lose sales, the burden must still be shared. "Who pays the tariffs? The US," Hinz wrote, before adding a caveat. "Does this mean we shouldn’t care about the new tariff threats? No. Selling less has obvious significant economic consequences for exporters."

The findings come as India and Brazil rank among the hardest hit by Trump's latest trade actions. India has faced a 50% effective tariff on most exports since August 27, 2025, after a 25% baseline reciprocal tariff was doubled through a penalty linked to Russian oil purchases. Trump has also imposed 50% tariffs on Brazil.

More recently, Trump announced new tariffs targeting eight European countries on January 17, explicitly linking them to his push to acquire Greenland. The initial 10% tariffs, set to take effect on February 1, apply to Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the UK. These duties are scheduled to rise to 25% on June 1 unless a Greenland deal is reached.