Silver, gold or stocks? 30-year returns & what Nifty-gold and gold-silver ratios hint at

Stocks, as reflected by Nifty, have outperformed gold and silver 60 per cent of the times in the past three decades, Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers said in an note. Calling equities as the core wealth creator, Anand Rathi said stocks have delivered consistent double-digit returns over long periods and dominated performance across most market cyclesIt said gold adds stability, not growth, offering low-to-mid returns. Silver, it said, is cyclical, not defensive, showing higher volatility and positive equity correlation, making it a tactical risk-on asset rather than a hedge. 

"Equities drive long-term returns, gold provides diversification and silver remains cyclical," it said. The brokerage noted that Nifty has delivered 11.4 per cent average annual returns between 1996 and 2025. Nifty500 offered a similar return of 11.1 per cent. Gold return during the same period stood at 9.4 per cent. Silver delivered 5.4 per cent annual return. Stocks outperformed gold and silver during the 1996 to 2001, 2001 to 2006 and 2006 to 2011 periods. They performed better than gold but lagged silver during 2021 to 2025.

Nifty-gold ratio Anand Rathi said stocks dominate in risk-on periods, with high volatility and beta translating into superior long-term returns. Gold, it said, protects in risk-off periods, showing low volatility and near-zero or negative beta and correlation when equities correct. Meanwhile, silver outperforms mainly in risk-on phases, but its high volatility and positive equity linkage limit its effectiveness as a defensive hedge, it said.

At present, the Nifty-Gold ratio is below mean, indicating equities are likely to outperform, it said.

Among gold and silver, MOFSL recommended 75 per cent allocation to gold and 25 per cent to silver, indicating a preference for gold as a relatively steadier hedge in the current environment, while still retaining meaningful exposure to silver’s long-term structural upside. 

Gold-silver ratio MOFSL said that the recent sharp silver outperformance has led to a significant compression in the gold–silver ratio, which has fallen from pandemic highs of 127 to around 50 at the start of 2026. This reset suggests that while the long-term outlook for precious metals remains constructive, the near-term risk-reward equation may now be shifting in favour of gold after silver’s outsized run, it said.