‘This cycle repeats 4-5 times’: Gurmeet Chadha on months of no market returns
Stock market: Chadha said it is not unusual for markets to deliver no returns or even sharp negative returns for months.
- Feb 17, 2026,
- Updated Feb 17, 2026 3:13 PM IST
With benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty trading around their mid-2024 levels, and precious metals such as gold and silver delivering unexpectedly strong returns, equity investors are increasingly questioning when the market’s next meaningful upmove will begin.
Gurmeet Chadha, Managing Partner and CIO at Compcircle, in a post on X advised investors to embrace market cycles. He said it is not unusual for markets to deliver no returns or even sharp negative returns for months. He said there could also be months, which will make up years of no or negative returns.
"This cycle repeats 4-5 times in a 20-25 year journey. Embrace it. Learn from it. Result will be generational wealth," Chadha said.
On Tuesday, the BSE Sensex stood at 83,414.52 in intraday trade, while the Nifty was quoting at 25,715.30. Both indices had traded at higher levels in September 2024. Despite this, Sensex and Nifty delivered 13.4-13.6 per cent returns compounded annually over the past 10 years.
In a reply to Chadha, market veteran Shankar Sharma in a light-hearted banter said only if investors knew about such cycles in 2024, they would have sold stocks to buy gold and silver.
"Small Pra, yeh baat 2024 July mien batate to hum logon Ka bhala ho jaata. Maal bech ke Gold Silver le liya hota awaam ne," Sharma said.
Concerns over a potential sharp market correction, amid a global technology selloff, have unsettled investors. A few brokerages, however, believe Indian equities may move higher going ahead, supported by a recovery in corporate earnings and improving macro conditions.
Emkay Global suggested a Nifty target of 29,000 for December 2026 and said the positive third-quarter earnings trend reinforced its constructive stance on Indian equities. “Despite the labor code hit, the BSE-500 delivered a 16 per cent PAT growth, outperforming the Nifty 50 at 8 per cent. We remain bullish on Indian equities, with the announcement of the India-US trade deal marking an inflection point for the markets,” it said.
Kotak Institutional Equities said the Indian market could witness a gradual upward movement in the next few months after a prolonged phase of stagnation. It attributed this to an improving earnings outlook, although it cautioned that high and potentially moderating multiples in consumption sectors could act as a drag.
MOFSL said Nifty valuations at 20.4 times were marginally below its long-period average of 20.9 times on a 12-month forward earnings basis. The brokerage remained overweight on auto, PSU banks, diversified financials, technology, consumer discretionary and capital goods.
With benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty trading around their mid-2024 levels, and precious metals such as gold and silver delivering unexpectedly strong returns, equity investors are increasingly questioning when the market’s next meaningful upmove will begin.
Gurmeet Chadha, Managing Partner and CIO at Compcircle, in a post on X advised investors to embrace market cycles. He said it is not unusual for markets to deliver no returns or even sharp negative returns for months. He said there could also be months, which will make up years of no or negative returns.
"This cycle repeats 4-5 times in a 20-25 year journey. Embrace it. Learn from it. Result will be generational wealth," Chadha said.
On Tuesday, the BSE Sensex stood at 83,414.52 in intraday trade, while the Nifty was quoting at 25,715.30. Both indices had traded at higher levels in September 2024. Despite this, Sensex and Nifty delivered 13.4-13.6 per cent returns compounded annually over the past 10 years.
In a reply to Chadha, market veteran Shankar Sharma in a light-hearted banter said only if investors knew about such cycles in 2024, they would have sold stocks to buy gold and silver.
"Small Pra, yeh baat 2024 July mien batate to hum logon Ka bhala ho jaata. Maal bech ke Gold Silver le liya hota awaam ne," Sharma said.
Concerns over a potential sharp market correction, amid a global technology selloff, have unsettled investors. A few brokerages, however, believe Indian equities may move higher going ahead, supported by a recovery in corporate earnings and improving macro conditions.
Emkay Global suggested a Nifty target of 29,000 for December 2026 and said the positive third-quarter earnings trend reinforced its constructive stance on Indian equities. “Despite the labor code hit, the BSE-500 delivered a 16 per cent PAT growth, outperforming the Nifty 50 at 8 per cent. We remain bullish on Indian equities, with the announcement of the India-US trade deal marking an inflection point for the markets,” it said.
Kotak Institutional Equities said the Indian market could witness a gradual upward movement in the next few months after a prolonged phase of stagnation. It attributed this to an improving earnings outlook, although it cautioned that high and potentially moderating multiples in consumption sectors could act as a drag.
MOFSL said Nifty valuations at 20.4 times were marginally below its long-period average of 20.9 times on a 12-month forward earnings basis. The brokerage remained overweight on auto, PSU banks, diversified financials, technology, consumer discretionary and capital goods.