Trump tariff: US Supreme Court verdict today; can stock market recover on Monday?
Trump tariff: US Supreme Court verdict today; can stock market recover on Monday?
Nomura in its global macro outlook 2026 note last month said if Trump’s tariffs through his emergency powers are ruled as illegal, this would cut the US effective tariff rate by nearly half.
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The US SC may decide today on the US President Donald Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping global tariffs, including 10 per cent baseline rates.
Stock investors in India were nervous on Friday, ahead of the US Supreme Court verdict on the legality of Trump tariffs. The US apex court may rule today on the US President Donald Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping global tariffs, including 10 per cent baseline rates and higher reciprocal duties on key trading partners.
The ruling may centre on two key questions: first, whether the White House can legally invoke emergency powers to impose tariffs; and second, if the tariffs are struck down, whether the US government would be required to issue refunds.
On Friday, the BSE Sensex settle at 83,576.24, down 604.72 points or 0.72 per cent. Nifty shed 193.55 points, or 0.75 per cent, to close at 25,683.30. "Investors clearly adopted a risk-off stance, refraining from aggressive positioning, while defensive sectors offered only limited support. Overall sentiment stayed cautious, with market participants awaiting clearer signals on global policy direction and its broader economic impact," said Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money.
VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said that following the sharp correction in the previous session, triggered by the possibility of a nearly 500 per cent tariff on India under the provisions of the Russia Sanctioning Act approved by President Donald Trump, markets were focused on the verdict now.
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"There is a high probability of the verdict going against Trump. But the details are significant: that is, whether it would be a partial striking down of the tariffs or completely declaring the tariffs illegal. The market reaction would depend on the details. If the Supreme Court declares Trump tariffs illegal, there would be a rally in India since India has been the worst affected by the 50 per cent tariffs," Vijayakumar said.
In the case of US, Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research at HDFC Securities said a ruling striking down the tariffs could bolster US corporate profits by lowering input costs and ease trade frictions, but it might pressure US government's revenue, elevate Treasury yields, and trigger short-term equity volatility.
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"Upholding the tariffs would support onshoring efforts but would also risk fuelling higher inflation and market uncertainty," he noted.
Nomura in its global macro outlook 2026 note last month said if Trump’s tariffs through his emergency powers are ruled as illegal, this would cut the US effective tariff rate by nearly half (currently around 11-12 per cent). Without immediate usage of other trade acts from Trump to reimpose tariffs, markets would likely initially view the outcome as additional support for the Fed to cut, it noted.
(more to come)
Disclaimer: Business Today provides stock market news for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Stock investors in India were nervous on Friday, ahead of the US Supreme Court verdict on the legality of Trump tariffs. The US apex court may rule today on the US President Donald Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping global tariffs, including 10 per cent baseline rates and higher reciprocal duties on key trading partners.
The ruling may centre on two key questions: first, whether the White House can legally invoke emergency powers to impose tariffs; and second, if the tariffs are struck down, whether the US government would be required to issue refunds.
On Friday, the BSE Sensex settle at 83,576.24, down 604.72 points or 0.72 per cent. Nifty shed 193.55 points, or 0.75 per cent, to close at 25,683.30. "Investors clearly adopted a risk-off stance, refraining from aggressive positioning, while defensive sectors offered only limited support. Overall sentiment stayed cautious, with market participants awaiting clearer signals on global policy direction and its broader economic impact," said Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money.
VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said that following the sharp correction in the previous session, triggered by the possibility of a nearly 500 per cent tariff on India under the provisions of the Russia Sanctioning Act approved by President Donald Trump, markets were focused on the verdict now.
Advertisement
"There is a high probability of the verdict going against Trump. But the details are significant: that is, whether it would be a partial striking down of the tariffs or completely declaring the tariffs illegal. The market reaction would depend on the details. If the Supreme Court declares Trump tariffs illegal, there would be a rally in India since India has been the worst affected by the 50 per cent tariffs," Vijayakumar said.
In the case of US, Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research at HDFC Securities said a ruling striking down the tariffs could bolster US corporate profits by lowering input costs and ease trade frictions, but it might pressure US government's revenue, elevate Treasury yields, and trigger short-term equity volatility.
Advertisement
"Upholding the tariffs would support onshoring efforts but would also risk fuelling higher inflation and market uncertainty," he noted.
Nomura in its global macro outlook 2026 note last month said if Trump’s tariffs through his emergency powers are ruled as illegal, this would cut the US effective tariff rate by nearly half (currently around 11-12 per cent). Without immediate usage of other trade acts from Trump to reimpose tariffs, markets would likely initially view the outcome as additional support for the Fed to cut, it noted.
(more to come)
Disclaimer: Business Today provides stock market news for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
