Surging oil knocks Nifty near 1-yr low; cash is king as stocks tumble; traders tremble
Oil, India's biggest import item, surged $25/barrel to a fresh 44-month high as the raging war between Iran and the US, along with Israel, entered the 10th day.
- Mar 9, 2026,
- Updated Mar 9, 2026 4:12 PM IST
Indian stocks dived to fresh 11-month lows as soaring prices of crude oil crushed bulls on Dalal Street and investors exchanged volatility for the safety of cash in the world's worst performing major equity market.
Oil, India's biggest import item, surged $25/barrel to a fresh 44-month high as the raging war between Iran and the US, along with Israel, entered the 10th day. A wounded Tehran has shut the Straits of Hormuz – the crucial waterway that transports nearly 90% of West Asia's oil exports – and rained missiles on rival refineries, military bases and economic centres across the Gulf.
As a consequence, India's macro balance sheet has taken multiple hits. The world's 3rd largest economy imports 85-88 percent of its oil needs. A $10 rise in oil prices balloons Delhi's crude bill by an additional $15 billion. Worse, the rupee goes for a toss. Already, Asia's worst performer vs the Dollar on a YTD basis, the currency is likely headed for lower still.
"Market’s volatility is hitting investors across the board. Selling is seen even in fixed income products like real estate trusts to pay off market margin calls," Arun Kejriwal, a seasoned investor, told Business Today. "These are tough times amid uncertainty and burning oil prices. Cash works best."
The fear Index, India ViX, has jumped 70% to a 21-month high as the west Asian conflict worsened over the past week.
CORNERED BULLS
Bears are on a rampage. Airlines, paint companies, construction giants, oil marketing shares, banks and fertiliser stocks were among 772 companies hitting fresh 52-week lows on Monday as plunging prices pushed investor sentiment to a nadir.
However, experts are of the view this sharp fall provides investors an opportunity to buy the market lower and that India’s broader fundamentals remain positive.
Sweta Rajani, head of funds at Anand Rathi Wealth, said fresh purchases could be made piecemeal in flexi cap and multicap schemes of equity funds with an investment horizon exceeding 5 years.
IS THE WORST OVER?
Some analysts said the fear psychosis was overdone and that equities had absorbed most of the pain.
“Market corrections are a part of the cycle. At this stage, we don’t see significant downside risk left in equities, if clarity emerges. Oil at around $115 per barrel is unlikely to sustain for long, and once prices stabilise, markets should find their footing again,” Satish Kumar, MD and Head – InCred Research Services. ``Much of the geopolitical premium is already priced in. If the war does not escalate, investors are likely to shift focus back to fundamentals and earnings growth.”
Mumbai-based Kejriwal, who has tracked equities since mid-1980s, was in sync:
"Monday’s fall was because Iran’s and US’ statements were becoming stronger by the hour,” Kejriwal said. "Sanity will return sooner than later. Back home, we seem to be much better off with our domestic economy well poised to weather one more storm. More importantly then number of times as a nation we have bounced back is admirable.”
Indian stocks dived to fresh 11-month lows as soaring prices of crude oil crushed bulls on Dalal Street and investors exchanged volatility for the safety of cash in the world's worst performing major equity market.
Oil, India's biggest import item, surged $25/barrel to a fresh 44-month high as the raging war between Iran and the US, along with Israel, entered the 10th day. A wounded Tehran has shut the Straits of Hormuz – the crucial waterway that transports nearly 90% of West Asia's oil exports – and rained missiles on rival refineries, military bases and economic centres across the Gulf.
As a consequence, India's macro balance sheet has taken multiple hits. The world's 3rd largest economy imports 85-88 percent of its oil needs. A $10 rise in oil prices balloons Delhi's crude bill by an additional $15 billion. Worse, the rupee goes for a toss. Already, Asia's worst performer vs the Dollar on a YTD basis, the currency is likely headed for lower still.
"Market’s volatility is hitting investors across the board. Selling is seen even in fixed income products like real estate trusts to pay off market margin calls," Arun Kejriwal, a seasoned investor, told Business Today. "These are tough times amid uncertainty and burning oil prices. Cash works best."
The fear Index, India ViX, has jumped 70% to a 21-month high as the west Asian conflict worsened over the past week.
CORNERED BULLS
Bears are on a rampage. Airlines, paint companies, construction giants, oil marketing shares, banks and fertiliser stocks were among 772 companies hitting fresh 52-week lows on Monday as plunging prices pushed investor sentiment to a nadir.
However, experts are of the view this sharp fall provides investors an opportunity to buy the market lower and that India’s broader fundamentals remain positive.
Sweta Rajani, head of funds at Anand Rathi Wealth, said fresh purchases could be made piecemeal in flexi cap and multicap schemes of equity funds with an investment horizon exceeding 5 years.
IS THE WORST OVER?
Some analysts said the fear psychosis was overdone and that equities had absorbed most of the pain.
“Market corrections are a part of the cycle. At this stage, we don’t see significant downside risk left in equities, if clarity emerges. Oil at around $115 per barrel is unlikely to sustain for long, and once prices stabilise, markets should find their footing again,” Satish Kumar, MD and Head – InCred Research Services. ``Much of the geopolitical premium is already priced in. If the war does not escalate, investors are likely to shift focus back to fundamentals and earnings growth.”
Mumbai-based Kejriwal, who has tracked equities since mid-1980s, was in sync:
"Monday’s fall was because Iran’s and US’ statements were becoming stronger by the hour,” Kejriwal said. "Sanity will return sooner than later. Back home, we seem to be much better off with our domestic economy well poised to weather one more storm. More importantly then number of times as a nation we have bounced back is admirable.”