Sensex, Nifty this week: From Q2 results to bank credit growth, factors that may drive Dalal Street
This week investors will be eyeing key data releases such as Q2 earnings of major banking and IT companies, India’s bank loan growth and deposit growth, wholesale inflation, and the latest forex reserves.
- Oct 15, 2023,
- Updated Oct 15, 2023 5:07 PM IST
Last week, Indian equity markets posted modest gains on the back of positive macroeconomic data amid rising tension in the Middle East. India's industrial output grew by 10.3 per cent in August. Also, India's headline retail inflation rate fell to 5.02 per cent in September. This week investors will be eyeing key data releases such as quarterly results of major banking and IT companies, India’s bank loan growth and deposit growth data, wholesale inflation data, and the latest forex reserves, along with the industrial and manufacturing production in the US, that will keep the markets buzzing.
Economic data: In economic releases, traders will be eyeing India's wholesale prices index (WPI), slated to be released on October 16. India's wholesale prices shrank by 0.52 per cent year-on-year in August 2023, compared with market estimates of a 0.6 per cent decline after a 1.36 per cent drop in the prior month.
Foreign exchange reserves data, bank loan growth, and deposit growth data are scheduled to be released on October 20. India's forex reserves decreased to $586.9 billion on September 29 from $590.7 billion in the previous week.
Quarterly Results: In the banking and finance sector, investors will keep an eye on some important quarterly numbers to be released during the week such as HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, IDBI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Yes Bank, Federal Bank, Bank of Maharashtra, Bajaj Finance, Bandhan Bank, IndusInd Bank, and L&T Finance Holdings.
In the IT sector, Wipro, Happiest Minds Technologies, L&T Technology Services, LTIMindtree, Persistent Systems, Tata Elxsi, Mastek, Mphasis, and Cyient will also report their Q2 earnings in the coming week.
Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Tata Metaliks, CEAT, Bajaj Auto, Polycab India, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, Havells India, Jindal Stainless, Nestle India, PVR INOX, Tata Communications, UltraTech Cement, Voltas, Hindustan Zinc, JSW Steel, and One 97 Communications are some other major companies that are going to release their latest earnings this week.
US market data: On the global front, investors would be eyeing important economic data from the US, starting with NY Empire State Manufacturing Index on October 16 followed by Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production on October 17, Building Permits Prelim on October 18, Initial Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales on October 19 and finally Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count on October 20.
Trend in global markets: Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities, said that global equities slipped on Friday after US inflation data fuelled concerns about interest rates staying higher for longer, while persistent deflationary pressures reflected in the latest consumer and producer inflation data from China added to jitters about the global economy.
He said the conflict in the Middle East looked set to escalate as Israel's military on Friday called for all civilians of Gaza City, to relocate south within 24 hours, ahead of an expected ground invasion. “An escalation of Israel’s war with Hamas, drawing in Iran, could send crude oil to $150 a barrel and cut about $1 trillion off world economic output”, according to Bloomberg Economics.
On domestic macros, Jasani said India's merchandise deficit eased to a 5-month low amidst a sharper decline in imports. "The merchandise trade deficit fell to $19.4 billion in September, compared to $24.2 billion in August and $27.98 bn in September 2022. Exports fell by 2.6 per cent annually to $34.5 billion; Imports fell by 15 per cent annually to $53.8 billion. Exports were flat on a sequential basis, while imports fell by 8.2 per cent."
Technical Outlook: Nifty recovered well after a gap-down opening on October 13. "On weekly charts, it rose 0.5 per cent forming a bullish engulfing bull pattern. Nifty could now face resistance in the 19,839-19,878 band while support could come in at the 19,512-19,565 band,” Jasani said.
Bank Nifty: Kunal Shah, Senior Technical and derivative analyst at LKP Securities, said, "In the Bank Nifty index, the ongoing battle between the bulls and bears continued. Resistance is established at the 44,700 mark, while support lies at 44,000. The overall market sentiment remains bullish as long as the critical support at 44,000 holds, and a breach below this level, confirmed by a closing basis, may lead to renewed selling pressure. On the upside, a substantial resistance level is placed at 45,000, and a breakout beyond this point is likely to trigger significant short-covering," Shah said.
Last week, Indian equity markets posted modest gains on the back of positive macroeconomic data amid rising tension in the Middle East. India's industrial output grew by 10.3 per cent in August. Also, India's headline retail inflation rate fell to 5.02 per cent in September. This week investors will be eyeing key data releases such as quarterly results of major banking and IT companies, India’s bank loan growth and deposit growth data, wholesale inflation data, and the latest forex reserves, along with the industrial and manufacturing production in the US, that will keep the markets buzzing.
Economic data: In economic releases, traders will be eyeing India's wholesale prices index (WPI), slated to be released on October 16. India's wholesale prices shrank by 0.52 per cent year-on-year in August 2023, compared with market estimates of a 0.6 per cent decline after a 1.36 per cent drop in the prior month.
Foreign exchange reserves data, bank loan growth, and deposit growth data are scheduled to be released on October 20. India's forex reserves decreased to $586.9 billion on September 29 from $590.7 billion in the previous week.
Quarterly Results: In the banking and finance sector, investors will keep an eye on some important quarterly numbers to be released during the week such as HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, IDBI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Yes Bank, Federal Bank, Bank of Maharashtra, Bajaj Finance, Bandhan Bank, IndusInd Bank, and L&T Finance Holdings.
In the IT sector, Wipro, Happiest Minds Technologies, L&T Technology Services, LTIMindtree, Persistent Systems, Tata Elxsi, Mastek, Mphasis, and Cyient will also report their Q2 earnings in the coming week.
Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Tata Metaliks, CEAT, Bajaj Auto, Polycab India, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, Havells India, Jindal Stainless, Nestle India, PVR INOX, Tata Communications, UltraTech Cement, Voltas, Hindustan Zinc, JSW Steel, and One 97 Communications are some other major companies that are going to release their latest earnings this week.
US market data: On the global front, investors would be eyeing important economic data from the US, starting with NY Empire State Manufacturing Index on October 16 followed by Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production on October 17, Building Permits Prelim on October 18, Initial Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales on October 19 and finally Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count on October 20.
Trend in global markets: Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities, said that global equities slipped on Friday after US inflation data fuelled concerns about interest rates staying higher for longer, while persistent deflationary pressures reflected in the latest consumer and producer inflation data from China added to jitters about the global economy.
He said the conflict in the Middle East looked set to escalate as Israel's military on Friday called for all civilians of Gaza City, to relocate south within 24 hours, ahead of an expected ground invasion. “An escalation of Israel’s war with Hamas, drawing in Iran, could send crude oil to $150 a barrel and cut about $1 trillion off world economic output”, according to Bloomberg Economics.
On domestic macros, Jasani said India's merchandise deficit eased to a 5-month low amidst a sharper decline in imports. "The merchandise trade deficit fell to $19.4 billion in September, compared to $24.2 billion in August and $27.98 bn in September 2022. Exports fell by 2.6 per cent annually to $34.5 billion; Imports fell by 15 per cent annually to $53.8 billion. Exports were flat on a sequential basis, while imports fell by 8.2 per cent."
Technical Outlook: Nifty recovered well after a gap-down opening on October 13. "On weekly charts, it rose 0.5 per cent forming a bullish engulfing bull pattern. Nifty could now face resistance in the 19,839-19,878 band while support could come in at the 19,512-19,565 band,” Jasani said.
Bank Nifty: Kunal Shah, Senior Technical and derivative analyst at LKP Securities, said, "In the Bank Nifty index, the ongoing battle between the bulls and bears continued. Resistance is established at the 44,700 mark, while support lies at 44,000. The overall market sentiment remains bullish as long as the critical support at 44,000 holds, and a breach below this level, confirmed by a closing basis, may lead to renewed selling pressure. On the upside, a substantial resistance level is placed at 45,000, and a breakout beyond this point is likely to trigger significant short-covering," Shah said.