Gold extends winning streak on strong Fed-cut bets; will the yellow metal end 2025 strong?
In India, domestic prices mirrored the global trend. On 28 November 2025, 24K gold rose to Rs 126,580 per 10 grams, up Rs 630 from its previous close, while 22K gold was quoted at ₹116,032.
- Nov 28, 2025,
- Updated Nov 28, 2025 12:36 PM IST
Gold is on track to clock its fourth straight monthly advance as global traders increasingly bet that the US Federal Reserve will deliver a long-awaited interest rate cut at its December policy meeting. The metal has risen in nearly every month of 2025, positioning it for what analysts say could be its best annual performance since 1979, even as patchy US economic data—delayed by the government shutdown—continues to cloud visibility, according to Bloomberg.
Spot gold traded near $4,170 per ounce on Friday, gaining more than 2% through the week. A mix of dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials and the release of postponed economic indicators strengthened expectations of lower borrowing costs. Since gold does not earn interest, falling rates typically enhance its appeal. Swap markets are now pricing in over an 80% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December.
In India, domestic prices mirrored the global trend. On 28 November 2025, 24K gold rose to Rs 126,580 per 10 grams, up Rs 630 from its previous close, while 22K gold was quoted at ₹116,032. Indian bullion rates continue to trade at a sizeable premium to Dubai. At the same time, 24K gold in Dubai stood at about Rs 112,816 per 10 grams—a nearly 12.2% lower price gap that persists even before accounting for duties and local levies.
Why gold is moving higher
Gold’s upward drift is being fuelled primarily by growing bets of a December rate cut. Recent comments from senior Fed officials have boosted confidence that the central bank is ready to ease policy. Weak US consumer sentiment and softer-than-expected data have also supported the metal. With US markets closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, trade volumes were muted, but the directional trend remained intact.
Uncertainty across global financial markets, volatility in crude oil, and the US dollar’s movements continue to influence bullion. Typically, a stronger dollar depresses gold demand in other currencies, but the latest modest pullback in the greenback has aided bullion.
Aksha Kamboj, Vice President of the India Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA) and Executive Chairperson of Aspect Global Ventures, said wedding-season purchases are holding steady. “Demand for gold remains robust, and price corrections have been minimal. Gold continues to be viewed as a safe, stable, long-term asset. With currency markets relatively steady, gold is offering both security and reliability for investors,” she said.
Kamboj added that silver has also inched higher due to stable industrial consumption and rising investor interest. Actual demand rather than speculation appears to be driving gains, she noted, strengthening silver’s case as part of a diversified portfolio.
Fed rates and investors
With the Federal Reserve entering its communication blackout from Saturday, traders are dissecting every data point for clues on policy direction. The US government shutdown has delayed or limited several key economic releases, making the Fed’s job—and investors’ decision-making—more challenging.
As of Friday morning in Asia, spot gold was up 0.3% at $4,171.18, while US futures gained a similar margin to $4,215.80. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged lower, providing additional support.
Central-bank buying and consistent inflows into gold-backed ETFs have kept prices above $4,000 per ounce throughout November, even after last month’s record high above $4,380. Bloomberg data shows ETF inflows have remained firm for three straight weeks.
A strong 2025 finish?
Analysts expect gold to remain supported through the year-end, driven by heavy central-bank accumulation and persistent ETF demand. Many expect the metal to record its strongest annual rally since the late 1970s.
Expectations for monetary easing also remain elevated. Rate futures imply an 87% probability of a December cut. Remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly have strengthened that narrative, though not all regional Fed chiefs agree.
Kevin Hassett—considered a leading contender to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair—has publicly advocated for lower rates, echoing the stance of President Donald Trump. Since gold typically outperforms in low-rate environments, the policy outlook remains firmly supportive for the metal.
Retail investors, analysts say, should watch both domestic pricing and global cues closely before making fresh purchases.
Gold is on track to clock its fourth straight monthly advance as global traders increasingly bet that the US Federal Reserve will deliver a long-awaited interest rate cut at its December policy meeting. The metal has risen in nearly every month of 2025, positioning it for what analysts say could be its best annual performance since 1979, even as patchy US economic data—delayed by the government shutdown—continues to cloud visibility, according to Bloomberg.
Spot gold traded near $4,170 per ounce on Friday, gaining more than 2% through the week. A mix of dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials and the release of postponed economic indicators strengthened expectations of lower borrowing costs. Since gold does not earn interest, falling rates typically enhance its appeal. Swap markets are now pricing in over an 80% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December.
In India, domestic prices mirrored the global trend. On 28 November 2025, 24K gold rose to Rs 126,580 per 10 grams, up Rs 630 from its previous close, while 22K gold was quoted at ₹116,032. Indian bullion rates continue to trade at a sizeable premium to Dubai. At the same time, 24K gold in Dubai stood at about Rs 112,816 per 10 grams—a nearly 12.2% lower price gap that persists even before accounting for duties and local levies.
Why gold is moving higher
Gold’s upward drift is being fuelled primarily by growing bets of a December rate cut. Recent comments from senior Fed officials have boosted confidence that the central bank is ready to ease policy. Weak US consumer sentiment and softer-than-expected data have also supported the metal. With US markets closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, trade volumes were muted, but the directional trend remained intact.
Uncertainty across global financial markets, volatility in crude oil, and the US dollar’s movements continue to influence bullion. Typically, a stronger dollar depresses gold demand in other currencies, but the latest modest pullback in the greenback has aided bullion.
Aksha Kamboj, Vice President of the India Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA) and Executive Chairperson of Aspect Global Ventures, said wedding-season purchases are holding steady. “Demand for gold remains robust, and price corrections have been minimal. Gold continues to be viewed as a safe, stable, long-term asset. With currency markets relatively steady, gold is offering both security and reliability for investors,” she said.
Kamboj added that silver has also inched higher due to stable industrial consumption and rising investor interest. Actual demand rather than speculation appears to be driving gains, she noted, strengthening silver’s case as part of a diversified portfolio.
Fed rates and investors
With the Federal Reserve entering its communication blackout from Saturday, traders are dissecting every data point for clues on policy direction. The US government shutdown has delayed or limited several key economic releases, making the Fed’s job—and investors’ decision-making—more challenging.
As of Friday morning in Asia, spot gold was up 0.3% at $4,171.18, while US futures gained a similar margin to $4,215.80. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged lower, providing additional support.
Central-bank buying and consistent inflows into gold-backed ETFs have kept prices above $4,000 per ounce throughout November, even after last month’s record high above $4,380. Bloomberg data shows ETF inflows have remained firm for three straight weeks.
A strong 2025 finish?
Analysts expect gold to remain supported through the year-end, driven by heavy central-bank accumulation and persistent ETF demand. Many expect the metal to record its strongest annual rally since the late 1970s.
Expectations for monetary easing also remain elevated. Rate futures imply an 87% probability of a December cut. Remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly have strengthened that narrative, though not all regional Fed chiefs agree.
Kevin Hassett—considered a leading contender to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair—has publicly advocated for lower rates, echoing the stance of President Donald Trump. Since gold typically outperforms in low-rate environments, the policy outlook remains firmly supportive for the metal.
Retail investors, analysts say, should watch both domestic pricing and global cues closely before making fresh purchases.