Gold may rally to ₹1.48 lakh in 1-2 weeks despite correction: Vandana Bharti of SMC Global explains why
Vandana Bharti, Head of Commodity Research at SMC Global Securities, said that the recent decline in gold prices has encouraged value buying by institutional investors and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), although technical confirmation of a sustained rally is still awaited.
- Aug 4, 2026,
- Updated Aug 4, 2026 3:35 PM IST
Gold prices could rebound to ₹1.48 lakh per 10 grams on the MCX within the next one to two weeks, despite recent volatility, as renewed buying by central banks, improving ETF inflows and resilient physical demand continue to support the precious metal, according to Vandana Bharti, Head of Commodity Research at SMC Global Securities.
Speaking to Business Today, Bharti said the recent correction has largely been confined to the paper market, while the physical market continues to witness healthy buying from institutional investors and central banks.
"The physical market is much stronger than the paper market. Futures and options volumes remain subdued, but physical buying has picked up across jewellery, central banks and over-the-counter (OTC) markets during the second quarter of 2026," she said.
Bharti noted that the recent decline in gold prices has encouraged value buying by institutional investors and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), although technical confirmation of a sustained rally is still awaited.
Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday (August 4) as persistent uncertainty over the West Asia conflict boosted safe-haven demand, while investors awaited key US economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Silver outperformed, rising nearly 2%, supported by both geopolitical demand and its strong industrial applications in sectors such as renewable energy, electronics and manufacturing.
Central banks remain key buyers
According to Bharti, central banks continue to underpin gold prices despite recent corrections.
She said China remains an aggressive buyer of gold, while South Korea has also announced fresh purchases. ETF buying, which had slowed in recent months, resumed in July following the correction in prices.
MUST READ: Gold, silver prices today (August 4): Check latest rates in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, other cities
"ETF buying has started again after nearly four months. Central banks have remained net buyers throughout, and that is helping gold consolidate before the next move higher," she said.
Bharti expects international gold prices to move towards $4,250-$4,300 per ounce once key resistance levels are crossed.
On the domestic front, she believes the recent appreciation in the rupee has narrowed the premium between spot and futures prices, creating a healthier market structure.
Investment demand outweighs jewellery demand
While jewellery demand has softened amid elevated prices, Bharti said investment demand remains robust.
She pointed to strong trading volumes on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), indicating continued investor participation despite recent price declines.
"Jewellery demand has slowed, but Indian investors are increasingly buying gold coins and bars. That clearly reflects investment demand rather than consumption," she said.
Silver outlook remains positive
Bharti also retained a constructive outlook on silver, although she expects the metal to remain more volatile than gold in the near term.
She said silver continues to face pressure from bond yields and movements in the US dollar, but gradual ETF inflows and industrial demand should support prices over time.
According to her, silver could climb towards $64-$65 per ounce in international markets, while domestic prices may move higher in the coming months. However, she expects a clearer trend to emerge only after the US Federal Reserve's September policy meeting.
More broadly, Bharti said commodity markets remain driven by movements in the US dollar index, global bond markets and geopolitical developments, particularly tensions involving the US and Iran.
For investors, she believes the recent correction should be viewed as a phase of consolidation rather than a reversal of the long-term trend, with continued central bank buying and renewed ETF inflows likely to provide support to gold prices.
Gold prices could rebound to ₹1.48 lakh per 10 grams on the MCX within the next one to two weeks, despite recent volatility, as renewed buying by central banks, improving ETF inflows and resilient physical demand continue to support the precious metal, according to Vandana Bharti, Head of Commodity Research at SMC Global Securities.
Speaking to Business Today, Bharti said the recent correction has largely been confined to the paper market, while the physical market continues to witness healthy buying from institutional investors and central banks.
"The physical market is much stronger than the paper market. Futures and options volumes remain subdued, but physical buying has picked up across jewellery, central banks and over-the-counter (OTC) markets during the second quarter of 2026," she said.
Bharti noted that the recent decline in gold prices has encouraged value buying by institutional investors and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), although technical confirmation of a sustained rally is still awaited.
Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday (August 4) as persistent uncertainty over the West Asia conflict boosted safe-haven demand, while investors awaited key US economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Silver outperformed, rising nearly 2%, supported by both geopolitical demand and its strong industrial applications in sectors such as renewable energy, electronics and manufacturing.
Central banks remain key buyers
According to Bharti, central banks continue to underpin gold prices despite recent corrections.
She said China remains an aggressive buyer of gold, while South Korea has also announced fresh purchases. ETF buying, which had slowed in recent months, resumed in July following the correction in prices.
MUST READ: Gold, silver prices today (August 4): Check latest rates in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, other cities
"ETF buying has started again after nearly four months. Central banks have remained net buyers throughout, and that is helping gold consolidate before the next move higher," she said.
Bharti expects international gold prices to move towards $4,250-$4,300 per ounce once key resistance levels are crossed.
On the domestic front, she believes the recent appreciation in the rupee has narrowed the premium between spot and futures prices, creating a healthier market structure.
Investment demand outweighs jewellery demand
While jewellery demand has softened amid elevated prices, Bharti said investment demand remains robust.
She pointed to strong trading volumes on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), indicating continued investor participation despite recent price declines.
"Jewellery demand has slowed, but Indian investors are increasingly buying gold coins and bars. That clearly reflects investment demand rather than consumption," she said.
Silver outlook remains positive
Bharti also retained a constructive outlook on silver, although she expects the metal to remain more volatile than gold in the near term.
She said silver continues to face pressure from bond yields and movements in the US dollar, but gradual ETF inflows and industrial demand should support prices over time.
According to her, silver could climb towards $64-$65 per ounce in international markets, while domestic prices may move higher in the coming months. However, she expects a clearer trend to emerge only after the US Federal Reserve's September policy meeting.
More broadly, Bharti said commodity markets remain driven by movements in the US dollar index, global bond markets and geopolitical developments, particularly tensions involving the US and Iran.
For investors, she believes the recent correction should be viewed as a phase of consolidation rather than a reversal of the long-term trend, with continued central bank buying and renewed ETF inflows likely to provide support to gold prices.