Gold prices may hit $3,600 by year-end amid global uncertainty: Report
Over the past three years, gold has delivered average annual returns of 23%, outpacing the Nifty 50’s 11%. Ventura noted that gold’s negative correlation with equities has acted as a cushion during market sell-offs.
- Aug 19, 2025,
- Updated Aug 19, 2025 3:55 PM IST
Gold prices are expected to remain strong through the second half of 2025, with brokerage Ventura Securities forecasting Comex gold to touch $3,600 an ounce by year-end. The yellow metal hit a record high of $3,534.10 on August 7, surpassing its previous peak of $3,509.90 in April, supported by geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic uncertainty, and sustained investment inflows.
“Gold’s strategic role in portfolios has strengthened as investors navigate an era of slower global growth, policy uncertainty, and elevated geopolitical risks,” said NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities at Ventura. He added that inflationary pressures, a softer US dollar, and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts could provide further upside momentum.
Over the past three years, gold has delivered average annual returns of 23%, outpacing the Nifty 50’s 11%. Ventura noted that gold’s negative correlation with equities has acted as a cushion during market sell-offs. Data showed Comex gold had gained 28.68% year-to-date (July 2025), compared with just 4% from the Nifty 50.
In India, domestic demand remains resilient. Aksha Kamboj, Vice President of IBJA, said gold continues to be a favored asset, both for emotional and strategic purposes. “At present, the price of 24-karat gold is ₹99,623 per 10 grams, aligned with international cues and robust domestic demand. Upcoming wedding and festival demand will further fuel buying,” she noted.
On August 19, however, prices saw a sharp dip, with MCX October contracts opening at ₹99,466 per 10 grams. Spot prices varied across major cities, with 24k gold priced at Rs 1,00,900 in Delhi and Jaipur, while most other metros quoted ₹1,00,750 per 10 grams.
Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, said: "Gold prices traded slightly weak but remained range-bound between Rs 99,000 and Rs 99,400 on MCX, while Comex hovered below $3,350. However, strong support emerged near $3,330 in early trade, leading to a recovery toward the $3,345 zone. Going ahead, gold is expected to trade with a mildly positive bias within Rs 99,000–Rs 1,00,000 on MCX and $3,335–$3,360 on Comex. Market participants now shift focus to Friday’s Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which will be the key driver for volatility and direction."
Globally, gold markets were weighed down by optimism around U.S.-led peace efforts in Ukraine and a stronger dollar. Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Securities said gold was trading above $3,340 as investors awaited the U.S. Fed’s meeting minutes and the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Meanwhile, India’s gold investment landscape is shifting rapidly. Gold ETF holdings surged 42% year-on-year to 66.68 tons as of June 30, 2025, with assets under management soaring 88% to rs 64,777 crore. Investor accounts rose 41% to 76.54 lakh, driven by fintech platforms and fractional ownership models that appeal to younger investors.
On the global front, gold demand in Q2 2025 rose 3% year-on-year to 1,249 tons, led by investment and ETF inflows despite weaker jewelry demand. Central banks added to reserves, lifting global holdings to 36,345 tons, with India’s reserves steady at 880 tons.
Ventura expects this combination of central bank buying, ETF inflows, and steady Indian retail participation to keep gold prices elevated, cementing its role as both a safe-haven asset and a long-term portfolio hedge.
Gold prices are expected to remain strong through the second half of 2025, with brokerage Ventura Securities forecasting Comex gold to touch $3,600 an ounce by year-end. The yellow metal hit a record high of $3,534.10 on August 7, surpassing its previous peak of $3,509.90 in April, supported by geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic uncertainty, and sustained investment inflows.
“Gold’s strategic role in portfolios has strengthened as investors navigate an era of slower global growth, policy uncertainty, and elevated geopolitical risks,” said NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities at Ventura. He added that inflationary pressures, a softer US dollar, and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts could provide further upside momentum.
Over the past three years, gold has delivered average annual returns of 23%, outpacing the Nifty 50’s 11%. Ventura noted that gold’s negative correlation with equities has acted as a cushion during market sell-offs. Data showed Comex gold had gained 28.68% year-to-date (July 2025), compared with just 4% from the Nifty 50.
In India, domestic demand remains resilient. Aksha Kamboj, Vice President of IBJA, said gold continues to be a favored asset, both for emotional and strategic purposes. “At present, the price of 24-karat gold is ₹99,623 per 10 grams, aligned with international cues and robust domestic demand. Upcoming wedding and festival demand will further fuel buying,” she noted.
On August 19, however, prices saw a sharp dip, with MCX October contracts opening at ₹99,466 per 10 grams. Spot prices varied across major cities, with 24k gold priced at Rs 1,00,900 in Delhi and Jaipur, while most other metros quoted ₹1,00,750 per 10 grams.
Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, said: "Gold prices traded slightly weak but remained range-bound between Rs 99,000 and Rs 99,400 on MCX, while Comex hovered below $3,350. However, strong support emerged near $3,330 in early trade, leading to a recovery toward the $3,345 zone. Going ahead, gold is expected to trade with a mildly positive bias within Rs 99,000–Rs 1,00,000 on MCX and $3,335–$3,360 on Comex. Market participants now shift focus to Friday’s Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which will be the key driver for volatility and direction."
Globally, gold markets were weighed down by optimism around U.S.-led peace efforts in Ukraine and a stronger dollar. Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Securities said gold was trading above $3,340 as investors awaited the U.S. Fed’s meeting minutes and the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Meanwhile, India’s gold investment landscape is shifting rapidly. Gold ETF holdings surged 42% year-on-year to 66.68 tons as of June 30, 2025, with assets under management soaring 88% to rs 64,777 crore. Investor accounts rose 41% to 76.54 lakh, driven by fintech platforms and fractional ownership models that appeal to younger investors.
On the global front, gold demand in Q2 2025 rose 3% year-on-year to 1,249 tons, led by investment and ETF inflows despite weaker jewelry demand. Central banks added to reserves, lifting global holdings to 36,345 tons, with India’s reserves steady at 880 tons.
Ventura expects this combination of central bank buying, ETF inflows, and steady Indian retail participation to keep gold prices elevated, cementing its role as both a safe-haven asset and a long-term portfolio hedge.