Gold rally may have more fuel left, Jefferies’ Chris Wood sees $6,600/oz target
Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, believes the rally is far from over. In his widely read weekly note GREED & fear, Wood said he expects gold prices to climb to $6,600 per ounce, a jump of over 76 per cent from current levels near $3,745/oz.
- Sep 23, 2025,
- Updated Sep 23, 2025 2:26 PM IST
Gold prices have been on a relentless climb in 2025, rising nearly 43 per cent so far this calendar year amid geopolitical tensions, renewed trade frictions under Donald Trump’s tariff push, and aggressive central bank purchases. Analysts say the yellow metal has firmly reasserted its role as a safe-haven asset, outpacing equities and drawing attention from institutional as well as retail investors.
On September 23, 2025, 24-carat gold touched around Rs 1,14,300 per 10 grams in India, underlining the strength of the rally. In comparison, the Nifty50 has delivered a modest 7 per cent year-to-date return, after gains of 9 per cent in 2024 and 19 per cent in 2023. Gold, on the other hand, had already delivered strong returns of 12 per cent in FY24 and 16 per cent in FY23 before this year’s sharp surge.
Chris Wood’s bold projection
Despite these extraordinary gains, Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, believes the rally is far from over. In his widely read weekly note GREED & fear, Wood said he expects gold prices to climb to $6,600 per ounce, a jump of over 76 per cent from current levels near $3,745/oz.
Wood’s methodology for gold targets has consistently tied prices to US disposable income trends. Back in December 2002, he forecast a $3,400/oz target by adjusting the 1980 peak price of $850/oz in line with annualised growth in US personal income. That projection was later refined by focusing on disposable income per capita, which, he argues, better reflects gold’s store-of-value role relative to household wealth.
“The current gold price is 5.6 per cent of US disposable income per capita of $66,100. To reach 9.9 per cent of US disposable income per capita—equivalent to the peak ratio in January 1980—gold should rise to $6,571. This makes $6,600/oz a reasonable target at the peak of the current secular bull market,” Wood wrote.
He continues to recommend heavy allocations to gold. Since 2002, his model global portfolio for a US dollar-denominated pension fund has kept at least a 40 per cent weighting in bullion. The allocation was only trimmed from 50 per cent in December 2020, when Bitcoin was introduced into the portfolio.
Market drivers and outlook
Other analysts echo the bullish outlook, though with more moderate projections. Julius Baer analysts recently wrote that global central banks remain the key drivers of demand, while technical charts suggest gold could reach between $4,500 and $4,800 in the medium term. They also see silver gaining, with possible upside to $52–58 per ounce.
The macroeconomic backdrop is supportive. The US Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4–4.25 per cent, making non-yielding assets like gold more attractive. At the same time, trade tensions, inflationary pressures, and currency risks have all reinforced demand.
India context
In India, the rally has been amplified by local factors. Aksha Kamboj, Vice President of the India Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA), said festive demand, a weakening rupee, and expectations of further rate cuts abroad have kept buying strong. “Rather than pull back, gold prices have gone up, and those who have bought gold appear preferring to hold on to their positions. The general view is one of positive momentum, and gold seems well supported at current levels,” she noted.
Long-term store of value
While the near-term may bring bouts of profit-booking, the long-term investment case for gold remains intact. Its role as a hedge against inflation, financial instability, and currency debasement ensures continued relevance. For investors, Wood’s $6,600/oz target signals that the secular bull market in gold may have years still to run, with global wealth and monetary policy shaping the path ahead.
Gold prices have been on a relentless climb in 2025, rising nearly 43 per cent so far this calendar year amid geopolitical tensions, renewed trade frictions under Donald Trump’s tariff push, and aggressive central bank purchases. Analysts say the yellow metal has firmly reasserted its role as a safe-haven asset, outpacing equities and drawing attention from institutional as well as retail investors.
On September 23, 2025, 24-carat gold touched around Rs 1,14,300 per 10 grams in India, underlining the strength of the rally. In comparison, the Nifty50 has delivered a modest 7 per cent year-to-date return, after gains of 9 per cent in 2024 and 19 per cent in 2023. Gold, on the other hand, had already delivered strong returns of 12 per cent in FY24 and 16 per cent in FY23 before this year’s sharp surge.
Chris Wood’s bold projection
Despite these extraordinary gains, Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, believes the rally is far from over. In his widely read weekly note GREED & fear, Wood said he expects gold prices to climb to $6,600 per ounce, a jump of over 76 per cent from current levels near $3,745/oz.
Wood’s methodology for gold targets has consistently tied prices to US disposable income trends. Back in December 2002, he forecast a $3,400/oz target by adjusting the 1980 peak price of $850/oz in line with annualised growth in US personal income. That projection was later refined by focusing on disposable income per capita, which, he argues, better reflects gold’s store-of-value role relative to household wealth.
“The current gold price is 5.6 per cent of US disposable income per capita of $66,100. To reach 9.9 per cent of US disposable income per capita—equivalent to the peak ratio in January 1980—gold should rise to $6,571. This makes $6,600/oz a reasonable target at the peak of the current secular bull market,” Wood wrote.
He continues to recommend heavy allocations to gold. Since 2002, his model global portfolio for a US dollar-denominated pension fund has kept at least a 40 per cent weighting in bullion. The allocation was only trimmed from 50 per cent in December 2020, when Bitcoin was introduced into the portfolio.
Market drivers and outlook
Other analysts echo the bullish outlook, though with more moderate projections. Julius Baer analysts recently wrote that global central banks remain the key drivers of demand, while technical charts suggest gold could reach between $4,500 and $4,800 in the medium term. They also see silver gaining, with possible upside to $52–58 per ounce.
The macroeconomic backdrop is supportive. The US Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4–4.25 per cent, making non-yielding assets like gold more attractive. At the same time, trade tensions, inflationary pressures, and currency risks have all reinforced demand.
India context
In India, the rally has been amplified by local factors. Aksha Kamboj, Vice President of the India Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA), said festive demand, a weakening rupee, and expectations of further rate cuts abroad have kept buying strong. “Rather than pull back, gold prices have gone up, and those who have bought gold appear preferring to hold on to their positions. The general view is one of positive momentum, and gold seems well supported at current levels,” she noted.
Long-term store of value
While the near-term may bring bouts of profit-booking, the long-term investment case for gold remains intact. Its role as a hedge against inflation, financial instability, and currency debasement ensures continued relevance. For investors, Wood’s $6,600/oz target signals that the secular bull market in gold may have years still to run, with global wealth and monetary policy shaping the path ahead.