Gold, silver rise on strong Fed cut bets; 2026 outlook signals volatile but bullish trend ahead
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), December gold contracts rose Rs 475, or 0.38%, to Rs 1.25 lakh per 10 grams, with a turnover of 7,926 lots. Silver futures for December delivery surged Rs 1,388, or 0.89%, to Rs 1.57 lakh per kilogram in 8,239 lots.
- Nov 26, 2025,
- Updated Nov 26, 2025 1:20 PM IST
Gold and silver futures advanced in Wednesday’s (November 26) trade, supported by firm global cues and rising confidence that the US Federal Reserve may deliver an interest rate cut next month. The move extended the metals’ strong momentum in recent weeks amid softening US data, dovish Fedspeak, and a shift toward safe-haven assets.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), December gold contracts rose Rs 475, or 0.38%, to Rs 1.25 lakh per 10 grams, with a turnover of 7,926 lots. Silver futures for December delivery surged Rs 1,388, or 0.89%, to Rs 1.57 lakh per kilogram in 8,239 lots. Analysts attributed the rebound to weakening US macro indicators and growing expectations of monetary easing.
“Gold and silver prices jumped as delayed US economic data bolstered expectations of a December Fed rate cut,” said Rahul Kalantri, Vice-President of Commodities at Mehta Equities.
Globally, Comex gold for December delivery climbed $28.20, or 0.68%, to $4,193.40 per ounce, while silver advanced 1.03% to $51.61 per ounce. Weak US retail sales and subdued wholesale inflation reinforced bets on monetary easing. Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities, noted that September retail sales rose just 0.2% after a strong August reading, signalling slowing demand.
Adding to the momentum were dovish comments from senior Fed officials. Prithviraj Kothari, Managing Director at RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd., President of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association, and Chairman of Jain International Trade Organisation, said the metals were “dancing to the tunes of Fed rate cut bets,” rising to their highest levels in more than a week despite dollar strength.
He highlighted remarks by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who said the labour market is weak enough to justify another quarter-point cut in December—though further decisions will depend on delayed economic data. His comments followed New York Fed President John Williams’ recent projection that rates could decline “in the near term.”
“According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors now see an 81% chance of a December cut, up from 40% last week,” Kothari added. He noted that markets are focused on upcoming retail sales, PPI, and jobless claims data, which will provide clearer direction on Fed policy.
Kothari said gold has been trading between $4,000 (~₹1,21,000) and $4,200 (~₹1,27,000) on international markets, recommending a buy-on-dips, sell-on-rallies approach. Silver, he added, has been range-bound between $49 (~₹1,50,000) and $53 (~₹1,60,000).
Meanwhile, Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Lead at VT Markets, said several bullish catalysts—including rate cut expectations, ETF inflows, and central bank buying—are already priced in. “Fresh triggers will be needed for the next leg of the rally,” he said, adding that gold remains best suited for long-term allocation.
Gold in 2026
After soaring more than 60% in 2025—its best annual gain since 1979—gold now enters 2026 with cautious optimism, according to Axis Direct’s latest outlook. The firm expects the structural uptrend to continue but warns of sharper volatility as policy decisions, geopolitics, and liquidity conditions shift.
The 2025 boom was driven by US political turbulence, consecutive Fed cuts, record central bank buying, accelerating de-dollarisation, and heavy ETF inflows. For 2026, Axis Direct sees potential tailwinds from hyperinflation risks, further diversification away from the dollar, continued ETF demand, and a volatile geopolitical backdrop.
Risks include a hawkish central bank pivot, a stronger dollar, weaker Chinese demand, and calmer geopolitics reducing safe-haven flows.
Technically, gold remains in a long-term bull phase, with Axis Direct projecting Rs 1,40,000–Rs 1,45,000 per 10g by end-2026, recommending accumulation on dips between Rs 1,08,000 and Rs 1,17,000.
For Indian investors, moderate but steady gains are likely—even if 2025’s extraordinary surge is unlikely to repeat.
Gold and silver futures advanced in Wednesday’s (November 26) trade, supported by firm global cues and rising confidence that the US Federal Reserve may deliver an interest rate cut next month. The move extended the metals’ strong momentum in recent weeks amid softening US data, dovish Fedspeak, and a shift toward safe-haven assets.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), December gold contracts rose Rs 475, or 0.38%, to Rs 1.25 lakh per 10 grams, with a turnover of 7,926 lots. Silver futures for December delivery surged Rs 1,388, or 0.89%, to Rs 1.57 lakh per kilogram in 8,239 lots. Analysts attributed the rebound to weakening US macro indicators and growing expectations of monetary easing.
“Gold and silver prices jumped as delayed US economic data bolstered expectations of a December Fed rate cut,” said Rahul Kalantri, Vice-President of Commodities at Mehta Equities.
Globally, Comex gold for December delivery climbed $28.20, or 0.68%, to $4,193.40 per ounce, while silver advanced 1.03% to $51.61 per ounce. Weak US retail sales and subdued wholesale inflation reinforced bets on monetary easing. Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities, noted that September retail sales rose just 0.2% after a strong August reading, signalling slowing demand.
Adding to the momentum were dovish comments from senior Fed officials. Prithviraj Kothari, Managing Director at RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd., President of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association, and Chairman of Jain International Trade Organisation, said the metals were “dancing to the tunes of Fed rate cut bets,” rising to their highest levels in more than a week despite dollar strength.
He highlighted remarks by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who said the labour market is weak enough to justify another quarter-point cut in December—though further decisions will depend on delayed economic data. His comments followed New York Fed President John Williams’ recent projection that rates could decline “in the near term.”
“According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors now see an 81% chance of a December cut, up from 40% last week,” Kothari added. He noted that markets are focused on upcoming retail sales, PPI, and jobless claims data, which will provide clearer direction on Fed policy.
Kothari said gold has been trading between $4,000 (~₹1,21,000) and $4,200 (~₹1,27,000) on international markets, recommending a buy-on-dips, sell-on-rallies approach. Silver, he added, has been range-bound between $49 (~₹1,50,000) and $53 (~₹1,60,000).
Meanwhile, Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Lead at VT Markets, said several bullish catalysts—including rate cut expectations, ETF inflows, and central bank buying—are already priced in. “Fresh triggers will be needed for the next leg of the rally,” he said, adding that gold remains best suited for long-term allocation.
Gold in 2026
After soaring more than 60% in 2025—its best annual gain since 1979—gold now enters 2026 with cautious optimism, according to Axis Direct’s latest outlook. The firm expects the structural uptrend to continue but warns of sharper volatility as policy decisions, geopolitics, and liquidity conditions shift.
The 2025 boom was driven by US political turbulence, consecutive Fed cuts, record central bank buying, accelerating de-dollarisation, and heavy ETF inflows. For 2026, Axis Direct sees potential tailwinds from hyperinflation risks, further diversification away from the dollar, continued ETF demand, and a volatile geopolitical backdrop.
Risks include a hawkish central bank pivot, a stronger dollar, weaker Chinese demand, and calmer geopolitics reducing safe-haven flows.
Technically, gold remains in a long-term bull phase, with Axis Direct projecting Rs 1,40,000–Rs 1,45,000 per 10g by end-2026, recommending accumulation on dips between Rs 1,08,000 and Rs 1,17,000.
For Indian investors, moderate but steady gains are likely—even if 2025’s extraordinary surge is unlikely to repeat.