Is gold headed towards $5,000 in 2026? Bullion rally signals deeper shift in global finance, says expert

Gold prices surged to fresh record highs on Tuesday, edging closer to the $4,500 per-ounce mark, as a weaker US dollar and heightened geopolitical uncertainty drove renewed demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold rose 0.9% to $4,486.34 per ounce by mid-session after touching an all-time high of $4,497.55, while US gold futures climbed 1.1% to $4,518.90. Silver extended its blistering rally, rising 0.9% to $69.63 per ounce after briefly crossing $69.98, a new record.

The gains cap a spectacular year for bullion. Gold is up over 70% in 2025, while silver has surged an extraordinary 141%, supported by supply deficits, rising industrial demand, and strong investment inflows. With prices accelerating, a key question now confronting investors is whether gold could breach the psychologically significant $5,000 level in 2026.

Market participants say the rally goes far beyond short-term geopolitical shocks. Alok Jain, founder of Weekend Investing, argues that attributing gold’s rise solely to global tensions misses the larger structural forces at play. “This is not a temporary move that will reverse once geopolitical tensions ease,” he said in a recent YouTube video. “We are seeing rapid deglobalisation, fast-paced de-dollarisation, and a broad erosion of confidence in fiat currencies.”

According to Jain, real interest rates remain deeply negative when adjusted for actual inflation, steadily eroding the value of cash holdings. As a result, investors are increasingly turning to tangible assets that can preserve purchasing power over time. “This shift is not limited to gold and silver,” he noted, pointing to growing interest in real assets ranging from commodities to collectables as stores of value.

Why is gold prices surging

Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are also playing a critical role in sustaining the rally. Gold accumulation by eastern central banks has accelerated in recent years, reinforcing bullion’s status as a monetary anchor amid uncertainty about the future of the global financial system. Jain believes silver could eventually follow gold into central bank reserves as confidence in traditional reserve currencies weakens.

That said, technical indicators suggest the precious metals market is overbought in the near term. “Corrections of 10–20% can happen at any point,” Jain cautioned, adding that short-term pullbacks should not be mistaken for a trend reversal. “The larger trend is intact and reflects deeper stress within the global monetary framework.”

In India, the rally has translated into sharp price gains. Gold prices have jumped from around ₹11,600 per gram just two months ago to nearly ₹13,700 per gram, while silver prices have risen nearly 47% over the same period. Despite the steep rise, analysts say investor interest remains strong, particularly through ETFs and sovereign gold bonds.

The bullion surge has unfolded alongside relatively stable equity markets, marked by sector rotation rather than broad-based exuberance. While benchmark indices have largely consolidated, smaller stocks and select public sector enterprises have seen renewed buying interest, reflecting expectations of further rate cuts and upcoming policy cues.

What lies ahead

Looking ahead to 2026, analysts say gold touching $5,000 cannot be ruled out if current macro trends persist. A prolonged period of currency debasement, continued central bank buying, and sustained geopolitical risks could keep bullion firmly bid. As Jain puts it, gold’s rally may be less about speculation and more about signalling a transition toward a new global monetary order—one where real assets reclaim centre stage.

"Both gold and silver continue to attract buying strength. This behaviour suggests that $4,500 and $70 are being treated less as hard ceilings and more as reference points within ongoing trends, leaving both metals firmly supported for now and over the holidays," said Ahmad Assiri, research strategist at Pepperstone.