Is gold heading for $5,000 in early 2026? Rising prices spark talk of a massive bull run ahead
Gold prices are climbing rapidly, reigniting global speculation about a fresh multi-year bull run. With momentum building, analysts are asking the big question: could gold touch $5,000 sooner than expected?
- Nov 13, 2025,
- Updated Nov 13, 2025 2:37 PM IST
Gold continued its blistering upward momentum on Thursday (November 13), igniting debate among global investors about whether the precious metal could be headed toward the long-discussed $5,000 per ounce mark. Both domestic and international markets reflected strong appetite for safe-haven assets as expectations of US interest rate cuts, central bank accumulation, and geopolitical risks kept bullion demand elevated.
In India, gold prices hit Rs 1.27 lakh per 10 grams, climbing Rs 2,290 in just a day. Globally, spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,214.52/oz, while US December futures edged up to $4,218.20/oz, the highest since October 21.
Analysts attribute the surge to a combination of macro forces. “Gold is extending its winning streak driven by a weaker dollar, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and persistent central bank accumulation,” said Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities. He believes the short-term consolidation phase is healthy, but the broader trend still points upward, with the yellow metal potentially testing $4,300/oz by year-end if real yields stay muted.
The bigger question, however, is whether gold’s current rally is merely a strong cyclical upswing—or the beginning of a massive structural bull market that could push prices toward $5,000 within the next couple of years.
A 33% surge in months
Market strategist Alok Jain, Founder of Weekend Investing, saidthat the magnitude and pattern of the recent rally suggest something bigger is underway. “We went from $3,300 to $4,400—almost a 33% move in just a couple of months,” he said, noting that gold typically delivers 8–9% annual returns in USD terms. Such an outsized move, he added, resembles previous phases of “lumpy” gold rallies that often precede multi-year upside cycles.
Gold’s brief correction from $4,400 to $3,900 did not alter the long-term picture, Jain said. The metal has already bounced back to around $4,100, retracing barely 10%—a pattern consistent with earlier bull markets. Silver is exhibiting similar behaviour, swinging from $38 to $54, correcting, and rising again toward its highs.
Three mega bull runs
Historical charts show that gold has experienced three major bull supercycles—in the 1970s following the end of the gold standard, in the early 2000s after coordinated central bank gold-sale agreements, and during the post-2008 crisis years. Each delivered gains ranging from 500% to over 1,800%.
Jain pointed out that the current cycle has seen only about 150% growth, suggesting significant headroom if global macro conditions align.
One of the strongest structural drivers, he notes, is the sharp rise in gold accumulation by global central banks. Since 2022, central bank buying has jumped from 300 tonnes annually to almost 1,000 tonnes, even as global mine supply remains capped at roughly 3,000 tonnes per year. This sudden demand surge—led by China, Turkey, Russia, and India—has tightened the market significantly.
De-dollarisation
Growing concerns about the “weaponisation” of US Treasury holdings after sanctions on Russia have pushed nations to diversify away from the dollar. Countries from Germany to China have sharply reduced US Treasury holdings while increasing gold reserves. India’s gold reserves have also jumped from 566 tonnes in 2017 to 880 tonnes in 2025, reflecting this strategic shift.
Rate cuts and gold price
Investors remain divided on timing. While the US Fed struck a hawkish tone recently, markets still expect rate cuts starting December. A sustained decline in the dollar index—something US President Trump has openly favoured—could turbocharge bullion prices further. Will gold hit $5,000?
Experts say the trajectory depends on the next macro trigger: a Fed pivot, dollar weakness, geopolitical flare-ups, or continued central bank buying. But the underlying consensus is clear—the structural bull case for gold remains intact. For now, investors are watching closely. If global liquidity cycles align, the long-awaited $5,000 mark may arrive sooner than expected.
Gold continued its blistering upward momentum on Thursday (November 13), igniting debate among global investors about whether the precious metal could be headed toward the long-discussed $5,000 per ounce mark. Both domestic and international markets reflected strong appetite for safe-haven assets as expectations of US interest rate cuts, central bank accumulation, and geopolitical risks kept bullion demand elevated.
In India, gold prices hit Rs 1.27 lakh per 10 grams, climbing Rs 2,290 in just a day. Globally, spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,214.52/oz, while US December futures edged up to $4,218.20/oz, the highest since October 21.
Analysts attribute the surge to a combination of macro forces. “Gold is extending its winning streak driven by a weaker dollar, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and persistent central bank accumulation,” said Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities. He believes the short-term consolidation phase is healthy, but the broader trend still points upward, with the yellow metal potentially testing $4,300/oz by year-end if real yields stay muted.
The bigger question, however, is whether gold’s current rally is merely a strong cyclical upswing—or the beginning of a massive structural bull market that could push prices toward $5,000 within the next couple of years.
A 33% surge in months
Market strategist Alok Jain, Founder of Weekend Investing, saidthat the magnitude and pattern of the recent rally suggest something bigger is underway. “We went from $3,300 to $4,400—almost a 33% move in just a couple of months,” he said, noting that gold typically delivers 8–9% annual returns in USD terms. Such an outsized move, he added, resembles previous phases of “lumpy” gold rallies that often precede multi-year upside cycles.
Gold’s brief correction from $4,400 to $3,900 did not alter the long-term picture, Jain said. The metal has already bounced back to around $4,100, retracing barely 10%—a pattern consistent with earlier bull markets. Silver is exhibiting similar behaviour, swinging from $38 to $54, correcting, and rising again toward its highs.
Three mega bull runs
Historical charts show that gold has experienced three major bull supercycles—in the 1970s following the end of the gold standard, in the early 2000s after coordinated central bank gold-sale agreements, and during the post-2008 crisis years. Each delivered gains ranging from 500% to over 1,800%.
Jain pointed out that the current cycle has seen only about 150% growth, suggesting significant headroom if global macro conditions align.
One of the strongest structural drivers, he notes, is the sharp rise in gold accumulation by global central banks. Since 2022, central bank buying has jumped from 300 tonnes annually to almost 1,000 tonnes, even as global mine supply remains capped at roughly 3,000 tonnes per year. This sudden demand surge—led by China, Turkey, Russia, and India—has tightened the market significantly.
De-dollarisation
Growing concerns about the “weaponisation” of US Treasury holdings after sanctions on Russia have pushed nations to diversify away from the dollar. Countries from Germany to China have sharply reduced US Treasury holdings while increasing gold reserves. India’s gold reserves have also jumped from 566 tonnes in 2017 to 880 tonnes in 2025, reflecting this strategic shift.
Rate cuts and gold price
Investors remain divided on timing. While the US Fed struck a hawkish tone recently, markets still expect rate cuts starting December. A sustained decline in the dollar index—something US President Trump has openly favoured—could turbocharge bullion prices further. Will gold hit $5,000?
Experts say the trajectory depends on the next macro trigger: a Fed pivot, dollar weakness, geopolitical flare-ups, or continued central bank buying. But the underlying consensus is clear—the structural bull case for gold remains intact. For now, investors are watching closely. If global liquidity cycles align, the long-awaited $5,000 mark may arrive sooner than expected.