Silver set to soar to Rs 2 lakh/kg in 2025 amid tight stocks and heavy ETF buying: Report
Kedia Advisory noted that the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) alone added 324 tonnes in the past week—its largest inflow since July—raising the ETF’s holdings to 47.5% of all silver stored in London vaults. Traders across COMEX, the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Multi Commodity Exchange of India have increased positions aggressively, encouraged by supply constraints and tariff-linked premiums.
- Dec 2, 2025,
- Updated Dec 2, 2025 2:30 PM IST
Silver prices are projected to surge to Rs 200,000 per kg in 2025, building on the metal’s break above Rs 173,965 per kg in recent sessions, according to Kedia Advisory. The consultancy attributed the sharp upward trajectory to weak US macroeconomic data, rising expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut, and tightening global inventories. Support has also come from the US decision to classify silver as a critical mineral, renewed tariff concerns, and heavy inflows into major silver-backed exchange-traded funds.
Kedia Advisory noted that the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) alone added 324 tonnes in the past week—its largest inflow since July—raising the ETF’s holdings to 47.5% of all silver stored in London vaults. Traders across COMEX, the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Multi Commodity Exchange of India have increased positions aggressively, encouraged by supply constraints and tariff-linked premiums.
Supply tightness remains a defining feature of the current rally. London vault inventories remain strained despite a recent 54-million-ounce inflow, while Shanghai stockpiles sit near their lowest levels since 2015. COMEX has seen nearly 75 million ounces withdrawn since October. Elevated shipping risks and tariff-related premiums have discouraged physical movement of metal, tightening spot–futures spreads globally.
Amid these conditions, Kaynat Chainwala, AVP – Commodity Research at Kotak Securities, said silver extended Friday’s blistering 6% rally amid decade-low Chinese inventories, strong ETF demand and persistent supply tightness. “Global silver ETFs saw 9.7 million ounces of inflows last week, taking year-to-date additions to 113.4 million ounces,” she said.
Silver’s price performance in 2025 has been exceptional. The metal has nearly doubled in value in 11 months, surpassing gold’s 60% rise. On MCX, silver jumped nearly 20% in just 10 days to hover around Rs 184,000 per kg, while international spot prices climbed 21% during the same period. Silver breached the historic $50 per ounce level in October and rebounded strongly after a brief correction, now trading around $56.90—up more than 20% in a month.
The gold–silver ratio has plunged from above 100 in January to around 75, still above the long-term average of 70, suggesting more room for silver to run if gold remains steady.
Fundamental pressures remain firmly supportive. The global silver market is in its fifth consecutive year of deficit, driven by heavy industrial demand from solar, EV, electronics and semiconductor sectors, along with safe-haven buying. China’s exports hit a record 660 tonnes in October even as domestic inventories fell to decade lows. Soaring lease rates and large drawdowns from CME vaults indicate increasingly stressed liquidity.
Aksha Kamboj, Vice President of the India Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA), said strong demand for silver has made it an efficient access point for investors entering the bullion market. Rising industrial consumption and safe-haven buying have made silver “one of the most active commodities during a period of global uncertainty,” she said.
Technical indicators also signal ongoing upside. Kedia Advisory highlighted a strong MACD crossover above the zero line, indicating accelerating bullish momentum. The RSI remains elevated at 79.14—typically an overbought reading, but consistent with strong breakout phases. The Choppiness Index points to heightened volatility, often seen ahead of large directional moves. As long as silver stays above ₹173,965 per kg, analysts see a clear path toward Rs 200,000 within a month.
At 13:27 IST, the most-active March silver contract on MCX was down 1.6% at Rs 179,150 per kg, while COMEX March silver fell 2.1% to $57.93 per ounce.
Silver prices are projected to surge to Rs 200,000 per kg in 2025, building on the metal’s break above Rs 173,965 per kg in recent sessions, according to Kedia Advisory. The consultancy attributed the sharp upward trajectory to weak US macroeconomic data, rising expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut, and tightening global inventories. Support has also come from the US decision to classify silver as a critical mineral, renewed tariff concerns, and heavy inflows into major silver-backed exchange-traded funds.
Kedia Advisory noted that the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) alone added 324 tonnes in the past week—its largest inflow since July—raising the ETF’s holdings to 47.5% of all silver stored in London vaults. Traders across COMEX, the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Multi Commodity Exchange of India have increased positions aggressively, encouraged by supply constraints and tariff-linked premiums.
Supply tightness remains a defining feature of the current rally. London vault inventories remain strained despite a recent 54-million-ounce inflow, while Shanghai stockpiles sit near their lowest levels since 2015. COMEX has seen nearly 75 million ounces withdrawn since October. Elevated shipping risks and tariff-related premiums have discouraged physical movement of metal, tightening spot–futures spreads globally.
Amid these conditions, Kaynat Chainwala, AVP – Commodity Research at Kotak Securities, said silver extended Friday’s blistering 6% rally amid decade-low Chinese inventories, strong ETF demand and persistent supply tightness. “Global silver ETFs saw 9.7 million ounces of inflows last week, taking year-to-date additions to 113.4 million ounces,” she said.
Silver’s price performance in 2025 has been exceptional. The metal has nearly doubled in value in 11 months, surpassing gold’s 60% rise. On MCX, silver jumped nearly 20% in just 10 days to hover around Rs 184,000 per kg, while international spot prices climbed 21% during the same period. Silver breached the historic $50 per ounce level in October and rebounded strongly after a brief correction, now trading around $56.90—up more than 20% in a month.
The gold–silver ratio has plunged from above 100 in January to around 75, still above the long-term average of 70, suggesting more room for silver to run if gold remains steady.
Fundamental pressures remain firmly supportive. The global silver market is in its fifth consecutive year of deficit, driven by heavy industrial demand from solar, EV, electronics and semiconductor sectors, along with safe-haven buying. China’s exports hit a record 660 tonnes in October even as domestic inventories fell to decade lows. Soaring lease rates and large drawdowns from CME vaults indicate increasingly stressed liquidity.
Aksha Kamboj, Vice President of the India Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA), said strong demand for silver has made it an efficient access point for investors entering the bullion market. Rising industrial consumption and safe-haven buying have made silver “one of the most active commodities during a period of global uncertainty,” she said.
Technical indicators also signal ongoing upside. Kedia Advisory highlighted a strong MACD crossover above the zero line, indicating accelerating bullish momentum. The RSI remains elevated at 79.14—typically an overbought reading, but consistent with strong breakout phases. The Choppiness Index points to heightened volatility, often seen ahead of large directional moves. As long as silver stays above ₹173,965 per kg, analysts see a clear path toward Rs 200,000 within a month.
At 13:27 IST, the most-active March silver contract on MCX was down 1.6% at Rs 179,150 per kg, while COMEX March silver fell 2.1% to $57.93 per ounce.