'From $48 to $28...': CA recalls 2011 crash in 'white gold', warns against greed & leverage
The financial expert distilled the core lesson into one principle: when any asset retests a multi-year high, investors should book partial profits. According to him, this strategy has worked “seven out of ten times over decades” by preventing major losses.
- Oct 23, 2025,
- Updated Oct 23, 2025 1:59 PM IST
Finance professional and market commentator CA Nitin Kaushik has drawn a sharp reminder from one of the most dramatic episodes in commodities trading history — the 2011 silver crash — urging investors to learn from past excesses and exercise discipline when markets turn euphoric.
In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Kaushik recounted how silver’s meteoric rally between 2008 and 2011 — which saw prices soar nearly 400% to touch $47.9 per ounce on April 29, 2011, their highest level since 1980 — ended in one of the fastest collapses in modern trading.
“Social media was buzzing with calls of ‘Silver to $100 next.’ Every dip was bought. Warnings were largely ignored,” he wrote, recalling the frenzy that gripped traders and analysts alike.
But within days, the optimism vanished. Following the death of Osama Bin Laden in May 2011, global risk sentiment flipped overnight. Commodities, including silver, plunged. On MCX, the metal opened with a 4% gap down, falling from $48 to $33 in just five sessions — a staggering 31% crash that triggered widespread margin calls and broker defaults.
“The repercussions lasted years for many. This is the real cost of leverage and overconfidence,” Kaushik noted.
The pain didn’t end there. By September 2011, silver had tumbled again — this time from $44 to $26 in less than a month, wiping out 40% of its value. The metal once hailed as “white gold” turned fragile, leaving even seasoned traders stunned.
Fast-forward to today, Kaushik observed that silver still exhibits wild swings. Recently, MCX silver futures fell nearly 10% in a single day, from ₹1,70,000 to ₹1,53,000 per kg — echoing the volatility of the past.
“Different times, same market emotions,” he reflected. “Markets forget, but history repeats.”
Kaushik distilled the core lesson into one principle: when any asset retests a multi-year high, investors should book partial profits. According to him, this strategy has worked “seven out of ten times over decades” by preventing major losses.
“Sacrifice chasing the last 30% to protect yourself from a potential 70% fall,” he advised, emphasizing that discipline and risk management are the only true safeguards in unpredictable markets.
Kaushik’s message goes beyond silver — he sees the same emotional cycles in equities and other asset classes. “The 45-year pattern — seen in silver, Nasdaq, Nifty, gold — is clear: every euphoric rally ends with exhaustion,” he wrote.
Concluding with a note of pragmatism, Kaushik reminded investors that market leadership always rotates, “Next time you see a multi-year breakout, remember — it’s not a sprint to the top. Book some profits, breathe, and look for the next 40-50% opportunity elsewhere. Markets never die — they just shift leadership.”
Finance professional and market commentator CA Nitin Kaushik has drawn a sharp reminder from one of the most dramatic episodes in commodities trading history — the 2011 silver crash — urging investors to learn from past excesses and exercise discipline when markets turn euphoric.
In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Kaushik recounted how silver’s meteoric rally between 2008 and 2011 — which saw prices soar nearly 400% to touch $47.9 per ounce on April 29, 2011, their highest level since 1980 — ended in one of the fastest collapses in modern trading.
“Social media was buzzing with calls of ‘Silver to $100 next.’ Every dip was bought. Warnings were largely ignored,” he wrote, recalling the frenzy that gripped traders and analysts alike.
But within days, the optimism vanished. Following the death of Osama Bin Laden in May 2011, global risk sentiment flipped overnight. Commodities, including silver, plunged. On MCX, the metal opened with a 4% gap down, falling from $48 to $33 in just five sessions — a staggering 31% crash that triggered widespread margin calls and broker defaults.
“The repercussions lasted years for many. This is the real cost of leverage and overconfidence,” Kaushik noted.
The pain didn’t end there. By September 2011, silver had tumbled again — this time from $44 to $26 in less than a month, wiping out 40% of its value. The metal once hailed as “white gold” turned fragile, leaving even seasoned traders stunned.
Fast-forward to today, Kaushik observed that silver still exhibits wild swings. Recently, MCX silver futures fell nearly 10% in a single day, from ₹1,70,000 to ₹1,53,000 per kg — echoing the volatility of the past.
“Different times, same market emotions,” he reflected. “Markets forget, but history repeats.”
Kaushik distilled the core lesson into one principle: when any asset retests a multi-year high, investors should book partial profits. According to him, this strategy has worked “seven out of ten times over decades” by preventing major losses.
“Sacrifice chasing the last 30% to protect yourself from a potential 70% fall,” he advised, emphasizing that discipline and risk management are the only true safeguards in unpredictable markets.
Kaushik’s message goes beyond silver — he sees the same emotional cycles in equities and other asset classes. “The 45-year pattern — seen in silver, Nasdaq, Nifty, gold — is clear: every euphoric rally ends with exhaustion,” he wrote.
Concluding with a note of pragmatism, Kaushik reminded investors that market leadership always rotates, “Next time you see a multi-year breakout, remember — it’s not a sprint to the top. Book some profits, breathe, and look for the next 40-50% opportunity elsewhere. Markets never die — they just shift leadership.”