'Property doesn’t always go up': Real estate advisor warns India’s middle class of a Japan rerun
That one line sets the tone for a larger argument: property values rise only when economic conditions support them. Chauhan dismantles the popular belief that real estate is a guaranteed win, pointing instead to brutal corrections from around the world.
- Nov 11, 2025,
- Updated Nov 11, 2025 8:45 AM IST
India’s real estate market may look bulletproof right now, but history says otherwise. Real estate advisor Rajdeep Chauhan warns that property prices do not rise forever, and past crashes in Japan, China, and the US prove what happens when fundamentals slip.
“Your uncle bought a flat in 2007,” Chauhan writes in a LinkedIn post. “He’s still waiting to break even.”
That one line sets the tone for a larger argument: property values rise only when economic conditions support them. Chauhan dismantles the popular belief that real estate is a guaranteed win, pointing instead to brutal corrections from around the world.
“In 1989, Japan’s real estate market was so hot that the land under the Imperial Palace in Tokyo was worth more than all of California,” he notes. “Then it crashed. By 2001, land values had fallen 70 percent. People who bought property at the peak in 1989 are still underwater. That’s 36 years ago.”
He doesn’t spare the US either. “Property prices crashed 19 percent between 2007 and 2009. Over 2.8 million foreclosures in 2009 alone. Homeowners waited five to seven years just to recover their equity.”
But Chauhan argues that India, for now, is different — for all the right reasons.
“India checks all those boxes,” he says. “GDP grew 7.8 percent in Q1 2025. We’re adding 100 million-plus people to urban spaces. Our office supply to demand ratio is 0.49 — for every 2 sq ft of demand, we build 1.”
That’s what makes the current moment ripe for growth. Still, the warning stands.
“Ask China how it feels with 26 percent office vacancy. Ask Japan how 1990 went. Ask Americans who bought in 2007,” he writes. “When fundamentals align, you make money. When they don’t, you become a cautionary tale at someone else’s wedding.”
India’s real estate market may look bulletproof right now, but history says otherwise. Real estate advisor Rajdeep Chauhan warns that property prices do not rise forever, and past crashes in Japan, China, and the US prove what happens when fundamentals slip.
“Your uncle bought a flat in 2007,” Chauhan writes in a LinkedIn post. “He’s still waiting to break even.”
That one line sets the tone for a larger argument: property values rise only when economic conditions support them. Chauhan dismantles the popular belief that real estate is a guaranteed win, pointing instead to brutal corrections from around the world.
“In 1989, Japan’s real estate market was so hot that the land under the Imperial Palace in Tokyo was worth more than all of California,” he notes. “Then it crashed. By 2001, land values had fallen 70 percent. People who bought property at the peak in 1989 are still underwater. That’s 36 years ago.”
He doesn’t spare the US either. “Property prices crashed 19 percent between 2007 and 2009. Over 2.8 million foreclosures in 2009 alone. Homeowners waited five to seven years just to recover their equity.”
But Chauhan argues that India, for now, is different — for all the right reasons.
“India checks all those boxes,” he says. “GDP grew 7.8 percent in Q1 2025. We’re adding 100 million-plus people to urban spaces. Our office supply to demand ratio is 0.49 — for every 2 sq ft of demand, we build 1.”
That’s what makes the current moment ripe for growth. Still, the warning stands.
“Ask China how it feels with 26 percent office vacancy. Ask Japan how 1990 went. Ask Americans who bought in 2007,” he writes. “When fundamentals align, you make money. When they don’t, you become a cautionary tale at someone else’s wedding.”