West Asia conflict puts record 5.4 lakh housing deliveries at risk in 2026: Report

India's residential real estate sector could face its toughest execution challenge in years as prolonged geopolitical tensions in West Asia threaten to disrupt supply chains and raise construction costs, putting a record 5.4 lakh homes scheduled for completion in 2026 under pressure, according to property consultancy ANAROCK.

The report comes at a time when housing demand remains resilient and developers are financially stronger than in previous cycles. However, rising energy prices, elevated logistics costs and inflation in key building materials are emerging as significant risks to timely project deliveries.

"Latest ANAROCK Research data reveals that a record 5,40,400 housing units are scheduled for completion across the top seven cities in 2026 — the highest in the last decade," said Dr. Prashant Thakur, Executive Director and Head of Research and Advisory at ANAROCK Group.

Delivery pipeline

Among the major markets, the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) and Pune account for the largest share of homes due for completion. Together, the two western cities represent nearly 57% of the total housing pipeline for the year.

MMR alone is expected to see the completion of around 2,07,300 units, while Pune has approximately 1,00,300 homes lined up for delivery.

In southern India, Bengaluru is scheduled to complete around 69,000 units, followed by Hyderabad with 63,700 units and Chennai with 35,600 units. Together, these three cities account for another 1.68 lakh homes.

By comparison, the National Capital Region (NCR) has only 39,000 units due for completion in 2026, while Kolkata has around 22,500 units in the pipeline.

Lessons from the pandemic

ANAROCK noted that ambitious housing delivery targets have historically been vulnerable to external shocks.

During the pandemic-hit year of 2020, nearly 4.66 lakh housing units had been scheduled for completion across the top seven cities. However, only about 2.14 lakh homes, or 46% of the planned pipeline, were eventually delivered as lockdowns, labour migration and supply-chain disruptions brought construction activity to a standstill.

"Historically, ambitious housing supply pipelines have often been vulnerable to external shocks like these," said Thakur.

While the current environment differs significantly from the pandemic period, with labour availability stable and construction activity continuing, prolonged conflict in West Asia could still impact project economics.

Higher crude oil prices and disruptions to global trade routes are expected to increase the cost of essential construction inputs such as steel, aluminium, copper, electrical equipment and building systems.

Execution takes centre stage

According to ANAROCK, nearly 30.5 lakh homes were delivered across the top seven cities between 2017 and 2025. Housing completions have steadily increased from about 2.04 lakh units in 2017 to 5.19 lakh units in 2025, with 2026 projected to become the biggest delivery year in a decade.

Much of the current pipeline consists of projects launched between 2021 and 2023, when housing sales rebounded strongly after the pandemic.

Thakur said cities with the largest completion pipelines — particularly MMR, Pune and Bengaluru — are likely to be most vulnerable to sustained inflation in input costs as developers attempt to maintain delivery schedules while protecting margins.

He added that stronger balance sheets, improved project monitoring and stricter timelines under the Real Estate Regulatory Authority (RERA) provide some support, but prolonged geopolitical uncertainty could still test the industry's execution capabilities.

With the focus now shifting from sales to timely delivery, ANAROCK said 2026 could become a defining year for India's residential real estate sector. Successful execution would reinforce homebuyer confidence, while delays could expose vulnerabilities in one of the country's fastest-growing sectors.