AI could boost India's productivity more than it cuts jobs, says Goldman Sachs

Generative artificial intelligence (Gen-AI) is more likely to make Indian workers more productive than replace them, according to a new Goldman Sachs report that argues the technology could become a medium-term driver of economic growth despite concerns over job losses.

In its report, "Gen-AI in India: Jobs Crosswinds, Productivity Tailwinds," Goldman Sachs says AI adoption is expected to have "wide-ranging effects" on India's economy but believes the overall labour-market impact will be positive as the technology complements more workers than it substitutes.

More jobs to be complemented than replaced

The report estimates that Gen-AI could perform 9-17% of tasks currently undertaken by India's non-agricultural workforce, depending on how advanced the technology becomes. However, it expects only 8-12% of non-agricultural employment to face substitution risk, while 42-48% of workers are likely to see their roles complemented by AI, enabling them to focus on higher-value tasks.

According to Goldman Sachs, occupations with limited AI exposure are more likely to benefit from automation of repetitive work, whereas substitution risks rise only where a significant portion of tasks can be automated. Workers engaged in predominantly physical or manual activities are expected to remain largely unaffected.

MUST READ: 'Create jobs, do not replace them': Satya Nadella calls for community-first AI growth

Productivity gains could outweigh disruption

The report projects that widespread AI adoption could increase India's annual labour productivity growth by around 0.4 percentage points over the next decade under its baseline scenario. Depending on AI's ability to perform more complex tasks, the productivity boost could range between 0.1 percentage points and 0.8 percentage points annually.

Goldman Sachs believes the largest productivity gains are likely to be concentrated in media and entertainment, education and healthcare, where AI can augment knowledge-intensive work rather than replace it. By contrast, sectors such as construction, textiles, manufacturing and post and telecom services are expected to see more modest productivity improvements because a larger share of work remains physical in nature.

ALSO READ: OpenAI's 'rogue' AI incident reaches White House; Lawmakers propose emergency kill switch

Sector-wise impact will vary

The report identifies healthcare, education, financial and professional services as sectors where AI is likely to enhance productivity through applications such as diagnostics, personalized learning and data analytics. On the other hand, routine business functions in IT-enabled business process services, postal and telecom services face relatively higher substitution risk because they involve repetitive and codifiable tasks. Manufacturing is expected to remain less exposed due to its greater reliance on physical work.

Occupationally, routine clerical support workers are expected to face the greatest disruption, followed by some professional and technician roles. Meanwhile, physical occupations, craft and trade-related workers and machine operators could see higher demand as manual and interpersonal skills remain difficult to automate.

MUST READ: 15 years of experience vs 5 years of AI skills: Which pays more?

Infrastructure remains key

Goldman Sachs cautions that India's AI opportunity will depend on significant investments in computing infrastructure, data centres, reliable power supply and digital infrastructure. The report notes that India currently accounts for only about 1% of global data-centre capacity, making infrastructure expansion critical for scaling AI adoption across the economy. It also argues that deploying AI first as a productivity-enhancing tool rather than a labour-substituting one could help maximise economic gains while limiting labour-market disruption.