Economic Survey 2025-26: Growth outlook, inflation, capex, jobs -- what to expect amid global headwinds

The Economic Survey 2025–26 is set to be tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday, January 29, 2026, offering the first official snapshot of the government’s assessment of the economy ahead of the Union Budget on February 1. Presented annually before the Budget, the Economic Survey is among the most closely tracked policy documents, as it reviews the previous year’s economic performance and outlines priorities likely to shape fiscal policy for the coming year.

The Survey will be presented between 11:00 am and 12:00 pm, followed by a media briefing by Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V. Anantha Nageswaran. Its findings are expected to set the tone for Budget 2026–27, which Sitharaman will present on Sunday, February 1, during the ongoing Budget session of Parliament that began on January 28.

What to watch in the Survey

Market participants and policymakers will closely track four broad themes in the Survey: the real GDP growth projection for FY26 and beyond, trends in inflation and prices, the performance of key sectors such as banking and agriculture, and the outlook for exports and services. Together, these indicators will offer clues on the government’s comfort with macroeconomic stability and its room for fiscal manoeuvre.

In recent years, India’s actual growth has frequently outpaced the projections made in pre-Budget Economic Surveys. For 2025–26, first advance estimates peg GDP growth at 7.4%, significantly higher than the 6.3–6.8% growth range projected in last year’s Survey. Similarly, GDP growth for 2024–25 came in at 6.5%, broadly in line with the Survey’s forecast of 6.5–7%. In 2023–24, growth surprised on the upside at 9.2%, well above the Survey’s projection of 6–6.8%.

Animesh Hardia, Senior Vice President, Quantitative Research at 1 Finance, expects the Survey to acknowledge the strong FY26 performance while striking a measured tone on the outlook. “The Economic Survey 2026 will likely show we grew at 7.4% this year and project 6.5–7% for FY27 — solid, but not spectacular,” he said.

Hardia added that key questions include whether the RBI’s projected 21.5% jump in private capex materialised, whether the government can adhere to its FY27 fiscal deficit target of 4.2% while pushing capital expenditure beyond ₹12 lakh crore, and whether growth is translating into sufficient job creation as manufacturing targets a $1 trillion GDP contribution.

Sectoral signals and structural themes

Industry leaders expect the Survey to underline India’s resilience amid global volatility. C P Gurnani, Co-Founder and Vice Chairman of AIONOS, said the economy has been supported by strong domestic demand, sustained public capex and expanding digital infrastructure. He noted a structural shift in the IT sector, with artificial intelligence moving from pilots to production. “What the Economic Survey must now signal is a decisive pivot from experimentation to execution,” Gurnani said, calling for targeted investments in compute infrastructure, stronger R&D incentives and outcome-driven skilling.

Economists also expect a balanced assessment of macroeconomic stability and growth. Dr. Nilanjan Banik, Professor and Economist at Mahindra University, said India’s performance over the past year was anchored by public investment, steady consumption and financial system stability, even as inflation and weak global demand posed challenges. He added that the next phase of growth would require strengthening private investment, enhancing manufacturing competitiveness and sustaining employment generation, supported by coordinated fiscal and monetary policy.

Real estate and urban growth

The real estate sector is also watching the Survey closely for policy signals. Ashish Agarwal, Director at AU Real Estate, said stakeholders expect a data-driven assessment of project momentum, investment trends and employment generation, along with continued emphasis on RERA-led transparency. Aman Sharma, Founder and Managing Director of Aarize Group, added that the Survey is likely to advocate planned urban growth, integrated townships and mixed-use developments, while recognising the growing role of institutional capital in improving governance and liquidity.

What the Survey represents

Since its introduction in 1950–51, the Economic Survey has evolved into a standalone document prepared by the Economic Division of the Department of Economic Affairs. Under the stewardship of CEA V. Anantha Nageswaran, the Survey provides a comprehensive review of macroeconomic conditions, fiscal and financial indicators, and forward-looking challenges. The 2025–26 edition is expected to examine growth resilience amid global headwinds, the impact of trade tariffs, AI’s influence on labour markets, currency movements, and progress on poverty alleviation, climate action, infrastructure and financial sector reforms.

As Parliament gears up for Budget 2026–27, the Economic Survey will serve as the government’s key narrative on where the economy stands — and where policy intends to take it next.