Goldman Sachs Cuts India GDP Forecast To 5.9%, Sees Inflation Rise And Possible RBI Rate Hike

Goldman Sachs has lowered India’s GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 5.9%, down from 6.5%, citing global uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and supply disruptions. The firm has also raised its inflation outlook, projecting CPI at 4.6%, indicating persistent price pressures. The report further flags the possibility of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Reserve Bank of India, as policymakers respond to inflation risks. Additionally, Goldman Sachs has increased the probability of a US recession to 30%, adding to global economic concerns. Despite the downgrade, experts believe India may still remain one of the fastest-growing major economies, even amid rising global headwinds and market volatility.