India’s middle class in the crosshairs as white-collar jobs slow down, says Saurabh Mukherjea
Between 2010 and 2020, India experienced a surge in white-collar employment, driven by rapid expansion in information technology, business process outsourcing, and customer experience roles. Cities such as Bengaluru, Pune, Hyderabad, and Gurugram became magnets for educated workers.
- Jan 10, 2026,
- Updated Jan 11, 2026 2:55 PM IST
India’s once-reliable white-collar job engine is losing steam, placing the country’s urban middle class squarely in the line of fire. Saurabh Mukherjea, founder of Marcellus Investment Managers, has issued a stark warning: the growth model that powered India’s professional workforce for more than a decade is breaking down.
“White-collar jobs used to grow at 11% a year. Now it’s just 1%,” Mukherjea said on a recent podcast. “What used to double every six years has flatlined. That’s dramatic stagnation.”
Between 2010 and 2020, India experienced a surge in white-collar employment, driven by rapid expansion in information technology, business process outsourcing, and customer experience roles. Cities such as Bengaluru, Pune, Hyderabad, and Gurugram became magnets for educated workers, enabling mass upward mobility and fuelling consumption-led growth.
That trajectory, however, has sharply reversed. From 2023 to 2025, white-collar job growth has slowed to just 1% annually, according to Mukherjea — a collapse that signals deeper structural stress rather than a temporary slowdown.
Tech & customer experience at epicentre
The most immediate risk lies in technology and customer experience, India’s largest private-sector employers, together accounting for roughly 8 million jobs. Mukherjea cited a joint report by NASSCOM, Boston Consulting Group, and NITI Aayog that projects up to 2 million roles — nearly 25% of the workforce — could disappear by 2031 under a worst-case artificial intelligence disruption scenario.
“This is not some speculative forecast,” he said. “This is top-tier analysis from credible think tanks and consultancies.”
Warning signs are already visible. India’s IT sector, which expanded at an average of 16% annually for a decade, has now slipped into contraction. Job growth has turned negative, declining by about 1% per year. “We are losing 10-12% of tech jobs every year,” Mukherjea noted, pointing to automation, AI adoption, and slowing global demand.
Major firms have begun acting on these shifts. Tata Consultancy Services cut 12,000 jobs in 2023 — a small fraction of its total workforce, but symbolically significant for an industry long seen as a job creator of last resort. HCL Tech’s leadership has openly spoken about doubling revenue with half the headcount, signalling a decisive break from labour-intensive growth models.
Meanwhile, the World Bank’s South Asia Development Update reported a 20% decline in job postings for tech and customer experience roles, attributing the drop largely to the rise of generative AI.
Broader middle-class squeeze
Mukherjea warned that the impact will not remain confined to IT. Sectors such as media, finance, legal services, and logistics — all heavy employers of white-collar professionals — are likely to experience similar pressure as AI-driven efficiency gains spread.
“The NITI Aayog report is the straw that broke the camel’s back,” he said. “It’s a stack of red flags, and they all point in the same direction.”
For India’s middle class, the implications are profound. Slower job creation threatens wage growth, household consumption, and social mobility — pillars that have underpinned India’s economic expansion over the past two decades.
“This is no longer a forecast; it’s a live event,” Mukherjea said. “The question now is how we respond before the damage becomes permanent.”
India’s once-reliable white-collar job engine is losing steam, placing the country’s urban middle class squarely in the line of fire. Saurabh Mukherjea, founder of Marcellus Investment Managers, has issued a stark warning: the growth model that powered India’s professional workforce for more than a decade is breaking down.
“White-collar jobs used to grow at 11% a year. Now it’s just 1%,” Mukherjea said on a recent podcast. “What used to double every six years has flatlined. That’s dramatic stagnation.”
Between 2010 and 2020, India experienced a surge in white-collar employment, driven by rapid expansion in information technology, business process outsourcing, and customer experience roles. Cities such as Bengaluru, Pune, Hyderabad, and Gurugram became magnets for educated workers, enabling mass upward mobility and fuelling consumption-led growth.
That trajectory, however, has sharply reversed. From 2023 to 2025, white-collar job growth has slowed to just 1% annually, according to Mukherjea — a collapse that signals deeper structural stress rather than a temporary slowdown.
Tech & customer experience at epicentre
The most immediate risk lies in technology and customer experience, India’s largest private-sector employers, together accounting for roughly 8 million jobs. Mukherjea cited a joint report by NASSCOM, Boston Consulting Group, and NITI Aayog that projects up to 2 million roles — nearly 25% of the workforce — could disappear by 2031 under a worst-case artificial intelligence disruption scenario.
“This is not some speculative forecast,” he said. “This is top-tier analysis from credible think tanks and consultancies.”
Warning signs are already visible. India’s IT sector, which expanded at an average of 16% annually for a decade, has now slipped into contraction. Job growth has turned negative, declining by about 1% per year. “We are losing 10-12% of tech jobs every year,” Mukherjea noted, pointing to automation, AI adoption, and slowing global demand.
Major firms have begun acting on these shifts. Tata Consultancy Services cut 12,000 jobs in 2023 — a small fraction of its total workforce, but symbolically significant for an industry long seen as a job creator of last resort. HCL Tech’s leadership has openly spoken about doubling revenue with half the headcount, signalling a decisive break from labour-intensive growth models.
Meanwhile, the World Bank’s South Asia Development Update reported a 20% decline in job postings for tech and customer experience roles, attributing the drop largely to the rise of generative AI.
Broader middle-class squeeze
Mukherjea warned that the impact will not remain confined to IT. Sectors such as media, finance, legal services, and logistics — all heavy employers of white-collar professionals — are likely to experience similar pressure as AI-driven efficiency gains spread.
“The NITI Aayog report is the straw that broke the camel’s back,” he said. “It’s a stack of red flags, and they all point in the same direction.”
For India’s middle class, the implications are profound. Slower job creation threatens wage growth, household consumption, and social mobility — pillars that have underpinned India’s economic expansion over the past two decades.
“This is no longer a forecast; it’s a live event,” Mukherjea said. “The question now is how we respond before the damage becomes permanent.”