BHEL shares fall 5% on muted Q3 show, take 4-day decline to 19%; what's next?

BHEL shares target prices: Brokerage firms continue to remain positive on Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL) post its results for the December 2025 quarter on Monday. However, the stock has been on a falling trend since hitting its 52-week highs last week and weakened further post its recent earnings update on select misses.BHEL Q3 results report card BHEL reported a solid 191 per cent YoY surge in net profit at Rs 390 crore, while it clocked a 16.4 per cent year-on-year (YoY) growth in revenue for December quarter to Rs 8,473 crore. Ebitda rose 79 per cent YoY to Rs 546 crore, while Ebitda margins improved to 6.4 per cent for the reported quarter. However, revenue was a miss on the street's expectations.BHEL share price Shares of BHEL dropped 5.4 per cent to Rs 248.75 on Tuesday, with its total market capitalization slipping below Rs 88,000 crore mark. The stock has tumbled nearly 19 per cent from its 52-week high at Rs 305.90, hit on January 14, just 4 sessions ago. The stock is down 15 per cent in 2026 so far.Analysts views on BHEL BHEL missed consensus Q3FY26 PAT by 26 per cent despite 16.4 per cent YoY revenue growth as GM fell to 30.8 per cent on accelerated execution of low-margin legacy projects, Nuvama Institutional Equities. Order inflows surged 53 per cent YoY to Rs 10,500 crore lifting backlog to Rs 2.2 lakh crore. We are slashing FY26E EPS by 21 per cent on OPM cut to 6 per cent, it said. BHEL reported broadly in-line PAT due to higher-than-expected other income. The management’s current focus is on completion of 10.2GW of pre-Talcher projects in 2026; however, this has impacted margins. Another 10.9GW of post-Talcher projects have just started and will soon see the beginning of margin-accretive equipment supply, said JM Financial. The remaining 14.1GW of projects have not yet started. As the execution-mix starts skewing in favour of new projects in subsequent quarters, margin improvement is certain. We remain positive on the long term prospects of the company, it said. BHEL’s revenue was broadly in line with our estimate. Its 9MFY26 order inflow stood at Rs 51,500 crore. IIt is L1 in projects worth Rs 45,000. As a result, we expect it to report OIs of Rs 90,000 crore – third consecutive year of strong ordering. We also expect execution to pick up sharply FY27 onwards given the ironing out of teething issues in its burgeoning OB of Rs 2.2 lakh crore, said ICICI Securities. Bharat Heavy Electricals’ (BHEL) delivered healthy 3QFY26 performance but revenue was below expectations impacted by lower than estimated execution in the power segment, said Antique Stock Broking. While the gross margin stood at 30.8 per cent, a sharp decline in other expenses drove a 79 per cent YoY increase in operating profit, it said. "We expect business performance to further improve in FY27 as the recently bagged better-margin orders enter execution leading to material improvement in the company’s profitability. We believe BHEL will continue to witness elevated ordering of Rs 80,000 crore over the next two years, led by both industry and power segments," Antique said.BHEL shares target price "It is unlikely to be impacted by imports from China, if at all, and long runway for thermal power," add JM with a 'buy' rating and a target price of Rs 355. On the other hand, Nuvama expects FY27 to be a ‘turnaround year’, free of legacy drag and start of operating leverage benefits while annual thermal OI continues at 7GW, giving it a 'buy' rating with a target price of Rs 355. Antique broadly retained its FY27/ 28 estimates while paring down the FY26 earnings estimate by 18 per cent to factor in weaker than estimated execution in 9MFY26. "We maintain 'buy' rating on the stock and retain the target of Rs 349, valuing the stock at 25 times FY28E EPS," it adds. The new built-up pipeline remains strong at 20GW; we expect 6-8GW of awarding in coming years underpinning medium-term growth, said ICICI Securities. "We estimate revenue CAGR of 15 per cent over FY25-28E along with improvement in gross margin and profitability," it added with a 'buy' rating and a target price of Rs 370, suggesting nearly 50% upside in the stock.