IndiGo Q3 result preview: Profit may fall YoY over Dec disruptions; margins under pressure

IndiGo Q3 results preview: InterGlobe Aviation, the parent company of budget carrier IndiGo, is set to announce its results for the quarter and nine-months ended on December 31, 2025 on Thursday, January 22. This will be IndiGo's first earnings after massive flight disruptions, cancellations and delays that crippled India's largest airline in December 2025.

Shares of InterGlobe Aviation Ltd rose 1.5 per cent to Rs 4,932.75 in the early trade on Thursday, commanding a total market capitalization of more than 1.9 lakh crore. The stock is down 21 per cent from its 52-week high at Rs 6,225.05, hit in August 2025. The  stock has is down 5 per cent in the last one month.

According to the brokerages tracking the stocks, IndiGo is likely to return to black on a sequential (QoQ) basis, but the bottomline may fall on a year-on-year (YoY) comparison. IndiGo is likely to post modest revenue growth of around 3-7 per cent YoY in the December 2025 quarter, supported by strong sequential recovery.

However, profitability may weaken, with net profit seen declining YoY due to operational disruptions, higher costs from flight cancellations, and softer yields. EBITDAR is likely to improve sharply QoQ, aided by better capacity utilisation and international expansion, said the analysts.

Nuvama Institutional Equities expects IndiGo's revenue at Rs 23,245 crore, up 5 per cent YoY and 25 per cent QoQ for the quarter. EBITDAR may come in at Rs 4,430.3 crore, down 25 per cent YoY but up 393 per cent QoQ. Net profit may crash 65 per cent YoY to Rs 865.6 crore.

"We expect a 25 per cent YoY decrease in EBITDAR due to muted available seat kilometer (ASKM) growth on account of FDTL-related operational disruptions leading to a 4 per cent fall in PRASKs. Further, opex shall be inflated during the quarter on account of compensation to affected passengers due to flight cancellations," Nuvama added.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services is expecting IndiGo's revenue to come in at Rs 23,618.8 crore, up 6.8 per cent YoY and 27.29 per cent QoQ. Ebitdar is seen at Rs 5,981.7 crore, flat on a yearly basis and up 591 per cent QoQ, with margins coming in at 25.3 per cent. Net profit may come in at Rs 2,189.5 crore, down 10.3 per cent YoY.

It expects ASK at Rs 4,480 crore, PLF at 86.5 per cent, and RPK at Rs 3,880 crore. "According to our database, IndiGo's average fare remained flat QoQ at Rs 6,110 on one-month forward bookings in Q3, while it rose 26 per cent QoQ to Rs 7,194 on 15-day forward bookings. Management is focused on international expansion, with the addition of new networks and code-share agreements," Motilal added.

Kotak Institutional Equities is pencilling in revenue at Rs 22,694.5 crore, up 2.6 per cent YoY and 22.3 per cent QoQ. Ebitda is seen at Rs 5,255.1 crore, up 1.5 per cent YoY and 806.8 per cent QoQ, with margins rising more than 2,000 bps sequentially to 23.2 per cent. Net profit may come in at Rs 1,870.6 crore, down 23.7 per cent YoY.

"We expect a 8 per cent YoY increase in ASK on the back of mass flight cancellations in December, with 150 bps lower YoY load factor at 85.5 per cent. We build in 3 per cent lower YoY yield at the lower-end of 3QFY26 guidance. We expect RASK less CASK at Rs 0.38 per ASK, against Rs 0.76 per ASK in Q3FY26. The same reflects the effect of lower yield and slightly inferior cost structure," it said.