IndiGo shares target price: PAT crashes 78%, what analysts say after a sub-par Q3 results

Brokerage firms continue to remain largely positive on InterGlobe Aviation Ltd, the parent company of IndiGo, even after a muted set of numbers in the December 2025 quarter. Most analysts believe that the numbers were not as disappointing as expected but the outlook remains largely positive, considering its market leadership. It saw some upgrades as well.InterGlobe Aviation reported a 77.6 per cent YoY crash in the net profit at Rs 549.1 crore, while revenue rose 6.2 per cent YoY to Rs 23,471.9 crore for the December 2025 quarter. The budget airline carrier player's Ebitdar came in at Rs 7,043.4 crore, down 5.5 per cent YoY for the quarter, while margins remained flat at 30 per cent for the quarter. The key takeaways from the call are ASK growth guidance for 4QFY26 moderated to 10 per cent in-line with capacity curtailment in winter schedule, guidance of PRASK moderation to the tune of mid single digits YoY in 4QFY26 and CASK ex-fuel ex-forex expected to increase by mid-single digits YoY in FY26 driven by higher FX exposure, higher damp lease costs and moderation in capacity, JM Financial said. "Indigo reported Adjust PAT, lower than estimates driven by higher forex loss of Rs 1,110 crore. It reported PBT/ASK of Rs 0.46 as compared to Rs 0.62. We revise our earnings downwards as we factor in a weaker rupee-sharper cuts in near-term earnings. However, we believe the stock has corrected sharply post the recent operational disruptions," it upgraded it to 'add' with a target price of Rs 5,420. The decline in profit was on account of one-time exceptional costs on the back of flight disruptions in December 2025 at Rs 577 crore, while implementation of new labour codes at Rs 969 crore. According to the company, IndiGo managed to fly 3.2 crore passengers in the October-December quarter and 12.4 crore in 2025, despite the disruptions. Despite near-term challenges in the form of reduced capacity, capped prices, rupee depreciation, and rising damp leases, Indigo remains confident in its growth strategy as India’s domestic network remains the backbone, with expanding international connectivity. Due to capacity moderation, it is expecting a mid-single-digit growth in unit cost for FY26, said Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "We largely retain our FY27/FY28 estimates. The return of grounded aircraft to service, and improved demand are likely to drive performance in the coming quarters over the longer term. We expect its revenue/EBITDAR/Adj. PAT to clock a CAGR of 12 per cent/13 per cent/10 per cent over FY 25-28," it added with a 'buy' and a target price of Rs 6,100. Shares of InterGlobe Aviation dropped nearly 4 per cent to Rs 4723.60 on Friday, commanding a total market capitalization of Rs 1.87 lakh crore. The stock had settled at Rs 4,913.80 on Wednesday. The stock has tumbled nearly 25 per cent from its 52-week hgih at Rs 6,225.05, hit in August 2025. Overseas brokerage firm Goldman Sachs also has a 'buy' rating on IndiGo but trimmed its target price of Rs 5,600 from Rs 6,000. Operations were better despite disruption and management's growth guidance is encouraging though higher costs remain a concern, it said while remaining positive on IndiGo's leadership position. "Costs, ex-forex, came in lower than estimates, led by lower aircraft rentals, while management guided for 10 per cent YoY ASK growth for Q4 signalling improving in capacity outlook. Near-term overhang from higher Q4 costs and lack of clarity on FY27 capacity growth," Goldman added, citing it as a long-term equity story despite elevated near-term costs. Based on stable Airbus delivery, and demand pickup from new airports, Elara Capital expects IndiGo to maintain cost and market leadership. "Based on guidance, earnings trend and rupee weakness, we marginally cut FY26E/27E/28E Ebitda estimates by 2 per cent/3 per cent/5 per cent," it said with a 'buy' rating and a target of Rs 6,020, citing key risks are delay in pilot addition and higher aircraft delivery to competitors. On the other hand, Nuvama believes that IndiGo’s adjusted Q3FY26 ebitdar missed consensus by 22 per cent with reported PAT crashing 78 per cent YoY on one-off costs related to early December 2025 disruption and implementation of new labour codes. It cut FY26–28E ebitdar 1-4 per cent on Q4 guidance and waning CASK, it said with a 'hold' and target price of Rs 4,832.