Meet Alap Shah: Man who posed 'AI' question, and with Citrini Research brainstormed the answer - 'scenario, not prediction'
Alap Shah, co-author of the viral report “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” has sparked a global debate with his scenario-driven analysis of technological disruption and economic risk. The report examines how rapid automation and white-collar displacement could reshape markets, housing, and global financial stability by 2028.
- Feb 24, 2026,
- Updated Feb 24, 2026 2:56 PM IST
Alap Shah, a technology entrepreneur and investor, has found himself at the centre of a global debate after co-authoring the viral macro report “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis.” Produced in collaboration with Citrini Research and James van Geelen, the paper explores a provocative question: What happens if artificial intelligence advances faster than the economy can absorb?
Shah is clear that the document is not a forecast. It is framed as a structured scenario — effectively a stress test of the global financial system under rapid technological disruption.
Who is Alap Shah?
Shah is the co-founder of Sentieo, a financial research platform later acquired by AlphaSense. He served as CEO from 2011 to 2020 and subsequently as chairman. His career spans technology, finance and investment strategy.
He is currently Chief Executive Officer of Littlebird and Chief Investment Officer at Lotus Technology Management in New York. He has also served as Managing Partner at Lotus Technology Management in Florida and as Co-Founder & Chairman of Thistle in the San Francisco Bay Area. Shah holds a degree in Economics from Harvard University.
According to Lotus Technology Management, he has spent recent years working with advanced automation systems across organisations — experience that informs the macro thinking in the new report.
Why the viral report
The report begins with a simple but consequential premise: what if new technology does not merely enhance productivity but replaces high-cost white-collar labour at scale?
Shah has observed that tasks once handled by teams of product managers, engineers, designers or financial analysts can now be completed in a fraction of the time. Research workflows that previously required extensive modelling and manpower are increasingly automated.
He describes this shift as a move from the early infrastructure-driven boom to “Phase 2” — operational efficiency, workforce reduction and cost compression.
A scenario, not a prediction
The “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” outlines a hypothetical chain reaction triggered by rapid adoption. Shah explicitly states: “What follows is a scenario, not a prediction.” The intent is to examine underexplored risks, not to trigger alarm.
At the centre of the thesis is the idea of “Ghost GDP.”
In this scenario, productivity gains lift corporate margins and headline growth, supporting equity markets. However, large-scale displacement suppresses wage growth and household income. Economic data appears healthy, but underlying purchasing power erodes.
That divergence, Shah argues, could create structural fragility.
The Intelligence Displacement Spiral
One of the report’s key concepts is the “Intelligence Displacement Spiral.” As companies cut payroll costs to improve margins, aggregate demand weakens. Softer consumption forces further cost reductions and additional automation.
The result is a negative feedback loop.
In its stress-case modelling, the report envisions a potential 38% drawdown in the S&P 500 from October 2026 highs and US unemployment rising to 10.2% by 2028. It characterises the financial system as “one long daisy chain of correlated bets on white-collar productivity growth,” suggesting that a late-2027 market shock could accelerate existing vulnerabilities across housing, private credit and equities.
Housing, credit and contagion
A particular concern is the $13 trillion US mortgage market. If high-income white-collar employment contracts quickly, metropolitan housing markets could face pressure.
Declining incomes would strain mortgage repayments, with spillovers into private credit and structured finance. In the scenario, the very efficiencies that lift corporate margins could undermine the consumer base that supports financial stability.
The report also notes that a sharp market downturn could restrict funding, slowing innovation itself.
Pressure on software and payments
Another theme is the potential erosion of traditional Software-as-a-Service models. If firms can replicate key software functions internally at minimal marginal cost, subscription-based pricing structures may weaken. Global payment intermediaries are also flagged as vulnerable if new digital settlement systems reduce reliance on legacy financial rails.
What about India?
The scenario extends globally, with India receiving specific focus. Sectorally, it flags Indian IT services firms and global payment processors as particularly exposed if AI sharply reduces coding costs and bypasses legacy financial rails. The report argues that India’s IT services sector — historically built on cost competitiveness — could face structural headwinds if coding and software development costs fall sharply. In the hypothetical 2028 timeline, firms such as TCS, Infosys and Wipro see accelerating contract cancellations as clients internalise more development work.
The study also models stress in India’s external accounts if the services surplus weakens. In that scenario, the rupee depreciates sharply, and preliminary discussions with the International Monetary Fund begin in early 2028. The currency is projected to fall 18% against the dollar within months under such strain.
Why the report resonated
The report has circulated widely in business and investment circles because of its systems-level approach. It connects labour markets, corporate margins, housing finance, currency dynamics and equity valuations into a single macro framework.
Shah’s tone, however, remains measured. The paper explicitly rejects sensationalism, stating it is neither “bear porn” nor “doomer fan-fiction.” Its objective is to encourage debate about second-order consequences before they materialise. “What follows is a scenario, not a prediction. This isn’t bear porn or AI doomer fan-fiction. The sole intent of this piece is modeling a scenario that’s been relatively underexplored," the report says.
Shah is not predicting a 2028 collapse. He is questioning whether markets, policymakers and corporations are adequately modelling the downstream effects of rapid labour substitution and cost compression.
Alap Shah, a technology entrepreneur and investor, has found himself at the centre of a global debate after co-authoring the viral macro report “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis.” Produced in collaboration with Citrini Research and James van Geelen, the paper explores a provocative question: What happens if artificial intelligence advances faster than the economy can absorb?
Shah is clear that the document is not a forecast. It is framed as a structured scenario — effectively a stress test of the global financial system under rapid technological disruption.
Who is Alap Shah?
Shah is the co-founder of Sentieo, a financial research platform later acquired by AlphaSense. He served as CEO from 2011 to 2020 and subsequently as chairman. His career spans technology, finance and investment strategy.
He is currently Chief Executive Officer of Littlebird and Chief Investment Officer at Lotus Technology Management in New York. He has also served as Managing Partner at Lotus Technology Management in Florida and as Co-Founder & Chairman of Thistle in the San Francisco Bay Area. Shah holds a degree in Economics from Harvard University.
According to Lotus Technology Management, he has spent recent years working with advanced automation systems across organisations — experience that informs the macro thinking in the new report.
Why the viral report
The report begins with a simple but consequential premise: what if new technology does not merely enhance productivity but replaces high-cost white-collar labour at scale?
Shah has observed that tasks once handled by teams of product managers, engineers, designers or financial analysts can now be completed in a fraction of the time. Research workflows that previously required extensive modelling and manpower are increasingly automated.
He describes this shift as a move from the early infrastructure-driven boom to “Phase 2” — operational efficiency, workforce reduction and cost compression.
A scenario, not a prediction
The “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” outlines a hypothetical chain reaction triggered by rapid adoption. Shah explicitly states: “What follows is a scenario, not a prediction.” The intent is to examine underexplored risks, not to trigger alarm.
At the centre of the thesis is the idea of “Ghost GDP.”
In this scenario, productivity gains lift corporate margins and headline growth, supporting equity markets. However, large-scale displacement suppresses wage growth and household income. Economic data appears healthy, but underlying purchasing power erodes.
That divergence, Shah argues, could create structural fragility.
The Intelligence Displacement Spiral
One of the report’s key concepts is the “Intelligence Displacement Spiral.” As companies cut payroll costs to improve margins, aggregate demand weakens. Softer consumption forces further cost reductions and additional automation.
The result is a negative feedback loop.
In its stress-case modelling, the report envisions a potential 38% drawdown in the S&P 500 from October 2026 highs and US unemployment rising to 10.2% by 2028. It characterises the financial system as “one long daisy chain of correlated bets on white-collar productivity growth,” suggesting that a late-2027 market shock could accelerate existing vulnerabilities across housing, private credit and equities.
Housing, credit and contagion
A particular concern is the $13 trillion US mortgage market. If high-income white-collar employment contracts quickly, metropolitan housing markets could face pressure.
Declining incomes would strain mortgage repayments, with spillovers into private credit and structured finance. In the scenario, the very efficiencies that lift corporate margins could undermine the consumer base that supports financial stability.
The report also notes that a sharp market downturn could restrict funding, slowing innovation itself.
Pressure on software and payments
Another theme is the potential erosion of traditional Software-as-a-Service models. If firms can replicate key software functions internally at minimal marginal cost, subscription-based pricing structures may weaken. Global payment intermediaries are also flagged as vulnerable if new digital settlement systems reduce reliance on legacy financial rails.
What about India?
The scenario extends globally, with India receiving specific focus. Sectorally, it flags Indian IT services firms and global payment processors as particularly exposed if AI sharply reduces coding costs and bypasses legacy financial rails. The report argues that India’s IT services sector — historically built on cost competitiveness — could face structural headwinds if coding and software development costs fall sharply. In the hypothetical 2028 timeline, firms such as TCS, Infosys and Wipro see accelerating contract cancellations as clients internalise more development work.
The study also models stress in India’s external accounts if the services surplus weakens. In that scenario, the rupee depreciates sharply, and preliminary discussions with the International Monetary Fund begin in early 2028. The currency is projected to fall 18% against the dollar within months under such strain.
Why the report resonated
The report has circulated widely in business and investment circles because of its systems-level approach. It connects labour markets, corporate margins, housing finance, currency dynamics and equity valuations into a single macro framework.
Shah’s tone, however, remains measured. The paper explicitly rejects sensationalism, stating it is neither “bear porn” nor “doomer fan-fiction.” Its objective is to encourage debate about second-order consequences before they materialise. “What follows is a scenario, not a prediction. This isn’t bear porn or AI doomer fan-fiction. The sole intent of this piece is modeling a scenario that’s been relatively underexplored," the report says.
Shah is not predicting a 2028 collapse. He is questioning whether markets, policymakers and corporations are adequately modelling the downstream effects of rapid labour substitution and cost compression.