After silver’s explosive surge, how far can prices go — and what should investors expect now
Fueled by shortages and a powerful technical breakout, silver has surged to unprecedented highs. The question now is whether this momentum can continue in a market known for dramatic swings.
- Dec 3, 2025,
- Updated Dec 3, 2025 9:56 PM IST
Silver has emerged as the standout performer in global commodities this year, doubling in price and outpacing even gold’s robust rally. As investors grapple with geopolitical tensions, currency weakness and fears of inflation, silver has surged to unprecedented levels—fuelled by a rare combination of supply scarcity, technical breakouts and surging industrial demand.
In India, silver futures climbed to Rs 1,79,393 per kg, rising 1.59% in a single session. The contract hit an all-time high of Rs 1,80,748, signalling relentless buying momentum. The move mirrors international markets, where silver has rallied to around $59 per ounce, marking a major breakout above its historic resistance zone.
According to Alok Jain, founder of Weekend Investing, silver has technically “just broken out” after decades of compression. He notes that silver recorded a 5.6% surge in one session—its strongest daily advance in over a year—triggered by an unusual disruption. A data centre failure at CyrusOne caused the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Globex platform to go offline for nearly 10 hours. With derivatives trading halted, physical market demand took control of price discovery “for the first time in many years,” pushing silver sharply upward.
Jain points to a powerful monthly breakout: November closed at the highest monthly close in silver’s recorded history, clearing a 15-year ceiling. “This is a very strong sign,” he said, comparing the move to earlier supercycles. Historically, silver has shown explosive behaviour—rising nearly 10x in the 1970s, and again from 2003 to 2011 before correcting deeply. Today’s breakout surpasses the 50-year double top, indicating a long-term structural shift.
If silver mirrors past supercycles, Jain suggests that using $15 as the base, a traditional 10x move could theoretically project silver towards $150 per ounce over the coming years. While not a prediction, it illustrates the scale of moves silver has produced before.
Several ratios offer further insight. The gold–silver ratio, currently around 72, has historically compressed to 50 or lower during silver bull phases. A similar contraction today would imply significant silver outperformance. Likewise, the S&P 500 to silver ratio shows silver tends to make sharp comebacks whenever equities become overstretched; past cycles saw drops of 90–95% in this ratio, indicating potential for a long, powerful run.
For Indian investors, silver has delivered strong returns even in rupee terms. The recent breakout occurred around ₹1.63 lakh, and prices have since surged to ₹1.80 lakh. Long-term INR returns for silver have averaged 11–12% CAGR, making it a consistent performer just behind gold.
Still, volatility remains part of silver’s DNA. Historically, the metal has endured deep corrections—90% in one cycle and 72% in another. Jain cautions that while the world has changed since those periods, traders should expect sharp swings. Short-term trading, he warns, “will be very difficult,” urging gradual accumulation instead of aggressive timing.
What’s fundamentally transformed silver’s landscape is industrial demand. A global push for solar energy, where silver is essential for photovoltaic cells, along with AI and data centre expansion, has created unprecedented consumption. At the same time, silver has been in a structural supply deficit for four consecutive years, with inventories falling steadily.
Forecasts from various firms—once pegged at $40–$50—have already been surpassed. Some analysts foresee $75–$80 by 2030, though the velocity of the current rally suggests those projections may be conservative.
With silver up 100% this year, compared with gold’s 60% gain, investor behaviour is shifting fast. In a world grappling with inflation, monetary uncertainty and rising interest in hard assets, the question now dominating the metal markets is not whether silver has broken out—but how far this breakout can run.
Silver has emerged as the standout performer in global commodities this year, doubling in price and outpacing even gold’s robust rally. As investors grapple with geopolitical tensions, currency weakness and fears of inflation, silver has surged to unprecedented levels—fuelled by a rare combination of supply scarcity, technical breakouts and surging industrial demand.
In India, silver futures climbed to Rs 1,79,393 per kg, rising 1.59% in a single session. The contract hit an all-time high of Rs 1,80,748, signalling relentless buying momentum. The move mirrors international markets, where silver has rallied to around $59 per ounce, marking a major breakout above its historic resistance zone.
According to Alok Jain, founder of Weekend Investing, silver has technically “just broken out” after decades of compression. He notes that silver recorded a 5.6% surge in one session—its strongest daily advance in over a year—triggered by an unusual disruption. A data centre failure at CyrusOne caused the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Globex platform to go offline for nearly 10 hours. With derivatives trading halted, physical market demand took control of price discovery “for the first time in many years,” pushing silver sharply upward.
Jain points to a powerful monthly breakout: November closed at the highest monthly close in silver’s recorded history, clearing a 15-year ceiling. “This is a very strong sign,” he said, comparing the move to earlier supercycles. Historically, silver has shown explosive behaviour—rising nearly 10x in the 1970s, and again from 2003 to 2011 before correcting deeply. Today’s breakout surpasses the 50-year double top, indicating a long-term structural shift.
If silver mirrors past supercycles, Jain suggests that using $15 as the base, a traditional 10x move could theoretically project silver towards $150 per ounce over the coming years. While not a prediction, it illustrates the scale of moves silver has produced before.
Several ratios offer further insight. The gold–silver ratio, currently around 72, has historically compressed to 50 or lower during silver bull phases. A similar contraction today would imply significant silver outperformance. Likewise, the S&P 500 to silver ratio shows silver tends to make sharp comebacks whenever equities become overstretched; past cycles saw drops of 90–95% in this ratio, indicating potential for a long, powerful run.
For Indian investors, silver has delivered strong returns even in rupee terms. The recent breakout occurred around ₹1.63 lakh, and prices have since surged to ₹1.80 lakh. Long-term INR returns for silver have averaged 11–12% CAGR, making it a consistent performer just behind gold.
Still, volatility remains part of silver’s DNA. Historically, the metal has endured deep corrections—90% in one cycle and 72% in another. Jain cautions that while the world has changed since those periods, traders should expect sharp swings. Short-term trading, he warns, “will be very difficult,” urging gradual accumulation instead of aggressive timing.
What’s fundamentally transformed silver’s landscape is industrial demand. A global push for solar energy, where silver is essential for photovoltaic cells, along with AI and data centre expansion, has created unprecedented consumption. At the same time, silver has been in a structural supply deficit for four consecutive years, with inventories falling steadily.
Forecasts from various firms—once pegged at $40–$50—have already been surpassed. Some analysts foresee $75–$80 by 2030, though the velocity of the current rally suggests those projections may be conservative.
With silver up 100% this year, compared with gold’s 60% gain, investor behaviour is shifting fast. In a world grappling with inflation, monetary uncertainty and rising interest in hard assets, the question now dominating the metal markets is not whether silver has broken out—but how far this breakout can run.