Dhanteras 2025: Golden run continues, why analysts feel gold’s rally may not be over yet

Gold’s golden run shows no sign of slowing. Since last Dhanteras, prices have surged from around Rs 78,840 per 10 grams ($2,769/oz) on October 29, 2024, to nearly ₹1.28 lakh ($4,254/oz) in October 2025 — a stunning 63% jump in rupee terms and 53% in dollar terms. The rally marks one of the strongest 12-month performances for the precious metal in recent years, outpacing both equities and other commodities.

According to Ventura Securities, gold’s relentless rise has been driven by a mix of macroeconomic and geopolitical tailwinds — including expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weakening dollar, persistent central bank buying, and renewed trade frictions between the US and China. The brokerage notes that gold has recorded eight consecutive weekly gains, reflecting strong investor confidence even amid brief price corrections.

Exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and continued central bank accumulation have further supported prices. “Global reserves are being diversified away from the US dollar, and central banks — especially in Asia — continue to view gold as a strategic asset,” Ventura said in a recent report.

Festive demand

In India, gold demand around Dhanteras — traditionally one of the most auspicious days for buying the metal — is expected to stay strong despite record-high prices. Last year, 25–30 tonnes of gold were sold during the festive season. While overall volume was lower due to the sharp price rise, the sales value jumped 12–18% as consumers shifted toward lightweight jewellery and smaller denomination gold coins.

Data from the World Gold Council (WGC) showed that jewellery demand in India fell 17% year-on-year in Q2 2025, though investment-led purchases rose during the same period — signalling a shift in consumer behaviour from adornment to asset accumulation.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold traded 1.69% higher at ₹132,052 per 10 grams on Friday after touching a new peak of ₹132,294. ETF inflows in the first half of 2025 were the highest since 2020, while physical demand for bars and coins climbed 11% year-on-year in Q2.

Price outlook

Ventura projects key resistance levels between Rs 1.30 lakh and Rs 1.35 lakh per 10 grams, with support near Rs 1.21 lakh ($4,000/oz). A break below Rs 1.20 lakh ($3,980/oz) could signal short-term weakness, but analysts expect the overall uptrend to remain intact.

N.S. Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities & CRM at Ventura, expects bullish momentum to persist. “Price resistances are seen at Rs 130,000–Rs 135,000, with support at Rs 121,000/$4,000. Weakness could emerge only if prices fall below Rs 120,000/$3,980,” he said.

Ramaswamy added that the next major rally could drive gold to Rs 1.50 lakh per 10 grams ($5,000/oz) by 2026 if macro tailwinds continue.

Axis Securities shares a similar view, projecting targets between Rs 1,45,000 and Rs 1,50,000 per 10 grams by next Diwali, supported by central bank accumulation, de-dollarisation, and sticky inflation. Religare Broking advises accumulating gold on dips around Rs 1,14,000–Rs 1,18,000 levels.

Four years of festive gains

This marks the fourth consecutive year that gold has rallied ahead of Dhanteras, significantly outperforming the Nifty 50, which has remained largely flat. Analysts say the combination of global uncertainty, inflation fears, and monetary easing expectations could keep gold shining bright into 2026.

Technically, gold remains in a strong uptrend, holding above key moving averages. While short-term corrections may occur due to overbought conditions, experts believe the broader bullish structure remains intact. Some analysts even predict that gold could approach Rs 1,50,000 per 10 grams or $5,000 per ounce by 2026.

With festive demand returning and investors viewing gold as a stable hedge, the metal’s lustre this Dhanteras appears far from fading.