Gold outlook 2026: World Gold Council sees sideways trade but flags strong upside triggers
After a year of record-breaking gains, gold is entering 2026 on a more balanced footing. The World Gold Council says the metal could move sideways unless economic or geopolitical shocks tilt the outlook.
- Dec 4, 2025,
- Updated Dec 4, 2025 3:41 PM IST
Gold could spend most of 2026 trading within a relatively narrow band unless the global economic environment deteriorates significantly, according to the World Gold Council’s annual outlook. After an extraordinary run in 2025—when the metal repeatedly hit record levels and delivered returns of more than 60%—the Council believes the coming year may lack the same one-way momentum.
The report notes that the current price reflects broadly accepted expectations for economic growth, inflation patterns, and the trajectory of global interest rates. With markets anticipating steady worldwide expansion of around 2.7–2.8% and further rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve, the Council says gold could stabilise rather than surge if these assumptions hold. A mildly stronger dollar, already factored into market models, also supports the view of a flatter price path.
However, the Council emphasises that economic cycles rarely move in straight lines, and even modest shifts could swing gold sharply. In a scenario where US growth cools but avoids recession, the metal could gain between 5% and 15%, helped by lower yields, softer risk sentiment, and renewed appeal as a hedge. Additional demand from central banks and new institutional investors—such as insurance firms in China or pension funds in India—could add to the momentum.
A more severe global downturn would have a far bigger impact. The Council believes a combination of deeper economic stress, falling bond yields, and escalating geopolitical tension could push gold higher by 15–30% as investors seek refuge from volatility. Large inflows into global gold ETFs through 2025, amounting to over $77 billion, suggest that investors are already positioning cautiously.
The outlook also highlights the risk of a reversal. Should the US adopt aggressive pro-growth measures that stoke inflation, bond yields could climb and the dollar might strengthen. Under such conditions, gold could correct by 5–20% as investors shift toward equities and higher-yielding assets, potentially triggering ETF outflows.
Unpredictable factors such as central bank purchase patterns and shifts in recycled supply add another layer of uncertainty. In India, rising pledges of gold jewellery through formal channels point to the possibility of increased secondary supply if economic conditions weaken.
Even so, the Council concludes that gold’s role as a stabiliser in turbulent markets remains intact, noting that frequent global shocks continue to reinforce its importance as a diversifier and risk-management asset.
Gold rates
Gold prices in India edged lower on 4 December 2025, with 24K gold trading at Rs 129,560 per 10 grams, a drop of Rs 630 from the previous close. The price of 22K gold stood at Rs 118,763 per 10 grams. Despite the dip, domestic prices remain elevated compared to major global markets due to factors such as international spot rates, movements in the US dollar, and India’s import duties.
A stark price gap continues between India and Dubai. On the same day, 24K gold in India cost Rs 129,560 per 10 grams, while in Dubai, it is priced at Rs 112,816. This reflects a difference of Rs 16,744, or roughly 14.84%. Similar variations were observed in 22K and 18K categories as well, excluding additional charges, making India one of the pricier markets for purchasing physical gold.
Aksha Kamboj said investors are turning to gold amid global economic uncertainty and shifting interest-rate expectations, reinforcing its role as a traditional safe haven. Strong domestic demand, combined with global cues such as anticipated Fed rate cuts, has revived buying interest and pushed prices higher in recent sessions. According to her, the near-term outlook remains optimistic, with this week’s trend supported by multiple favourable factors.
Gold could spend most of 2026 trading within a relatively narrow band unless the global economic environment deteriorates significantly, according to the World Gold Council’s annual outlook. After an extraordinary run in 2025—when the metal repeatedly hit record levels and delivered returns of more than 60%—the Council believes the coming year may lack the same one-way momentum.
The report notes that the current price reflects broadly accepted expectations for economic growth, inflation patterns, and the trajectory of global interest rates. With markets anticipating steady worldwide expansion of around 2.7–2.8% and further rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve, the Council says gold could stabilise rather than surge if these assumptions hold. A mildly stronger dollar, already factored into market models, also supports the view of a flatter price path.
However, the Council emphasises that economic cycles rarely move in straight lines, and even modest shifts could swing gold sharply. In a scenario where US growth cools but avoids recession, the metal could gain between 5% and 15%, helped by lower yields, softer risk sentiment, and renewed appeal as a hedge. Additional demand from central banks and new institutional investors—such as insurance firms in China or pension funds in India—could add to the momentum.
A more severe global downturn would have a far bigger impact. The Council believes a combination of deeper economic stress, falling bond yields, and escalating geopolitical tension could push gold higher by 15–30% as investors seek refuge from volatility. Large inflows into global gold ETFs through 2025, amounting to over $77 billion, suggest that investors are already positioning cautiously.
The outlook also highlights the risk of a reversal. Should the US adopt aggressive pro-growth measures that stoke inflation, bond yields could climb and the dollar might strengthen. Under such conditions, gold could correct by 5–20% as investors shift toward equities and higher-yielding assets, potentially triggering ETF outflows.
Unpredictable factors such as central bank purchase patterns and shifts in recycled supply add another layer of uncertainty. In India, rising pledges of gold jewellery through formal channels point to the possibility of increased secondary supply if economic conditions weaken.
Even so, the Council concludes that gold’s role as a stabiliser in turbulent markets remains intact, noting that frequent global shocks continue to reinforce its importance as a diversifier and risk-management asset.
Gold rates
Gold prices in India edged lower on 4 December 2025, with 24K gold trading at Rs 129,560 per 10 grams, a drop of Rs 630 from the previous close. The price of 22K gold stood at Rs 118,763 per 10 grams. Despite the dip, domestic prices remain elevated compared to major global markets due to factors such as international spot rates, movements in the US dollar, and India’s import duties.
A stark price gap continues between India and Dubai. On the same day, 24K gold in India cost Rs 129,560 per 10 grams, while in Dubai, it is priced at Rs 112,816. This reflects a difference of Rs 16,744, or roughly 14.84%. Similar variations were observed in 22K and 18K categories as well, excluding additional charges, making India one of the pricier markets for purchasing physical gold.
Aksha Kamboj said investors are turning to gold amid global economic uncertainty and shifting interest-rate expectations, reinforcing its role as a traditional safe haven. Strong domestic demand, combined with global cues such as anticipated Fed rate cuts, has revived buying interest and pushed prices higher in recent sessions. According to her, the near-term outlook remains optimistic, with this week’s trend supported by multiple favourable factors.