Gold price Feb 25: Gold holds above Rs 1.60 lakh in domestic market; $5,300–$5,400 in sight as safe-haven demand strengthens

Gold prices traded marginally higher on February 25 as investors sought safety amid fresh uncertainty over US trade policy and persistent geopolitical tensions.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures opened the Wednesday session at Rs 1,60,794 per 10 grams of 24-carat purity, up 0.52 percent from the previous close. Buying interest strengthened during Asian trading hours after the US Supreme Court struck down several tariff-related measures linked to former President Donald Trump, reviving concerns about fiscal and trade stability.

In international markets, spot gold on Comex was trading at $5,204.40 per ounce as of 3:25 am GMT, marking a 0.54 percent gain over the past 24 hours, underscoring steady safe-haven demand despite a firmer US dollar.

By around 12 pm IST, domestic bullion remained firm. The Indian Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA) pegged 999 purity gold at Rs 1,59,823 per 10 grams. MCX gold futures were trading at Rs 1,61,368 per 10 grams as of 12:09 pm IST, up 0.87 percent from the previous close, indicating sustained intraday momentum.

Technical outlook

From a technical standpoint, Reuters analyst Wang Tao said gold “could find support near $5,140 per ounce and may attempt another test of the $5,244 resistance level.” He added that the nearest resistance lies at $5,205, and a sustained move above that could push prices into the $5,221 to $5,244 range.

According to an Augmont report published on February 25, gold appears to be regaining bullish momentum. The report projects the next resistance zones at $5,300 (around Rs 1,64,000) and $5,400 (around Rs 1,67,000), suggesting further upside if global uncertainties persist.

On the geopolitical front, Iran and the United States are scheduled to hold a third round of nuclear negotiations in Geneva on Thursday, Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said, adding another layer of global risk for markets to monitor.

Structural drivers

Market participants argue that deeper structural forces beyond short-term volatility are supporting the rally.

Harshal Dasani, Business Head, INVasset PMS, said: "Gold’s structural strength is no longer just a macro hedge narrative; it is being driven by a rare convergence of physical tightness, sovereign accumulation, and retail capital rotation. Central banks continue to aggressively add reserves as part of a broader de-dollarization trend, reducing reliance on fiat reserve assets and reinforcing gold’s role as a neutral store of value." 

"At the same time, ETF flow data indicates renewed retail participation into safe-haven assets amid global policy uncertainty and rising geopolitical fragmentation. Physical supply remains constrained due to limited new mine discoveries and slow project pipelines, creating a persistent underlying shortage. With China reopening its markets after the holiday closure, incremental demand from the world’s largest physical consumer could re-accelerate price momentum. The key takeaway is that gold’s rally is not speculative—it is structurally supported by sovereign demand, supply rigidity, and defensive asset allocation trends," he added.

Aksha Kamboj, Vice President, India Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA) and Executive Chairperson, Aspect Global Ventures, said: "Gold is currently edging higher from the previous session as consistent buying support sustains the positive momentum. This is despite traders being cautious about volatility in the near term. As prices continue to strengthen after the recent fluctuations, gold seems to be consolidating its positive."

MCX and COMEX Outlook

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said: "COMEX Gold is trading in the $5,100–$5,300 zone after consolidating in recent sessions. The broader uptrend remains intact, with the current sideways phase reflecting a healthy pause following earlier volatility and profit booking. Prices continue to hold above key moving averages and are gradually edging higher, indicating strengthening momentum. Strong buying interest remains visible in the $4,850–$5,000 support band. A sustained breakout above $5,500–$5,600 could pave the way toward fresh record highs."

On domestic futures, he added: "MCX Gold futures are trading in the 1,55,000–1,62,000 range after consolidating following the sharp correction from lifetime highs near 1,80,000–1,81,000. While short-term price action reflects consolidation with a mild upward bias, the broader structure remains supportive above long-term support zones. Strong demand is visible in the 1,45,000–1,55,000 band. A sustained hold above this base, followed by a breakout above 1,65,000, may revive upside momentum toward 1,70,000–1,75,000, keeping the medium-term outlook constructive."

What investors should note

With safe-haven flows resurfacing amid trade and geopolitical uncertainty, gold continues to hold above key technical and structural support levels. Analysts suggest that sustained strength above immediate resistance zones could determine whether bullion resumes its broader uptrend toward fresh highs.