Gold prices cool from record highs ahead of festive season, should you buy now in dips?
Gold prices slipped from record highs on Friday as investors booked profits, even as global uncertainty and policy signals from the US Federal Reserve kept the long-term outlook positive. The retreat comes after bullion touched an all-time high of $3,896.49 an ounce on Thursday.
- Oct 3, 2025,
- Updated Oct 3, 2025 1:32 PM IST
Gold prices slipped from historic peaks in domestic futures trade on Friday as investors locked in gains amid renewed uncertainty surrounding the US government shutdown and the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. The retreat has raised questions on whether bullion could face a short-term correction, even as broader fundamentals remain supportive.
As of 02:47 GMT, spot gold traded at $3,851.99 per ounce, slightly off Thursday’s (October 2) record of $3,896.49. Despite the pullback, bullion has already risen 2.4% so far this week. US gold futures for December delivery edged higher by 0.2% to $3,874.40 per ounce.
Global factors
The recent rise in the US dollar slowed gold’s rally but did little to alter the broader uptrend. “The dollar’s climb created a minor speed bump, but uncertainty over the US government shutdown and expectations of lower interest rates continue to support gold,” said Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade.
The shutdown, now in its second day, has stalled the release of key economic reports, including the crucial non-farm payrolls data due Friday (October 3). With the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this month — as reflected in CME’s FedWatch tool — gold remains attractive as a safe-haven, non-yielding asset. Prices have already surged 47% in 2025.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan added that while the central bank is cautious on further easing, last month’s rate cut was necessary to safeguard against labour market risks, reinforcing investor bets on a lower-rate environment.
Domestic market steady
Tracking global cues, gold prices in India remained firm, further buoyed by a weaker rupee. According to the Goodreturns website, 24 karat gold was priced at Rs 11,804 per gram, while 22 karat stood at Rs 10,820 per gram. Prices of 18 karat gold hovered around Rs 8,853 per gram.
Currency weakness has consistently underpinned bullion’s domestic rally, cushioning it against global fluctuations.
Analysts weigh in
Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities, noted that international gold witnessed sharp swings due to profit booking ahead of the US jobs report. A fall in crude oil prices also pressured sentiment. “Expectations of a rise in non-farm payrolls led to profit-taking in both gold and silver, but the long-term view remains positive,” he said.
Echoing this view, Darshan Desai, CEO of Aspect Bullion & Refinery, said the yellow metal saw only mild profit-taking after its nearly 50% rally this year. He highlighted that gold remains on track for its seventh consecutive weekly gain despite signs of short-term overbought conditions. “Any correction could draw renewed buying from central banks and ETFs, limiting the downside,” Desai said.
Gold, silver in 2025
Gold and silver have significantly outperformed equities in the first half of FY26, cementing their role as safe-haven assets during global volatility. Gold surged 29.4% in H1FY26 — its best first-half performance in 30 years — while silver soared 41.2%, its strongest since the pandemic year FY21.
In contrast, Indian equities struggled. The Sensex and Nifty managed modest gains of 4.6% and 3.7%, respectively, weighed down by persistent foreign investor selling and a weakening rupee. Both indices posted their weakest H1 showing since FY23.
While short-term corrections are possible, analysts agree that the fundamental drivers for gold — low interest rates, currency weakness, and geopolitical uncertainty — remain firmly in place. Investors may book partial profits, but dips are expected to attract fresh buying, suggesting bullion’s rally is far from over.
Gold prices slipped from historic peaks in domestic futures trade on Friday as investors locked in gains amid renewed uncertainty surrounding the US government shutdown and the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. The retreat has raised questions on whether bullion could face a short-term correction, even as broader fundamentals remain supportive.
As of 02:47 GMT, spot gold traded at $3,851.99 per ounce, slightly off Thursday’s (October 2) record of $3,896.49. Despite the pullback, bullion has already risen 2.4% so far this week. US gold futures for December delivery edged higher by 0.2% to $3,874.40 per ounce.
Global factors
The recent rise in the US dollar slowed gold’s rally but did little to alter the broader uptrend. “The dollar’s climb created a minor speed bump, but uncertainty over the US government shutdown and expectations of lower interest rates continue to support gold,” said Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade.
The shutdown, now in its second day, has stalled the release of key economic reports, including the crucial non-farm payrolls data due Friday (October 3). With the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this month — as reflected in CME’s FedWatch tool — gold remains attractive as a safe-haven, non-yielding asset. Prices have already surged 47% in 2025.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan added that while the central bank is cautious on further easing, last month’s rate cut was necessary to safeguard against labour market risks, reinforcing investor bets on a lower-rate environment.
Domestic market steady
Tracking global cues, gold prices in India remained firm, further buoyed by a weaker rupee. According to the Goodreturns website, 24 karat gold was priced at Rs 11,804 per gram, while 22 karat stood at Rs 10,820 per gram. Prices of 18 karat gold hovered around Rs 8,853 per gram.
Currency weakness has consistently underpinned bullion’s domestic rally, cushioning it against global fluctuations.
Analysts weigh in
Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities, noted that international gold witnessed sharp swings due to profit booking ahead of the US jobs report. A fall in crude oil prices also pressured sentiment. “Expectations of a rise in non-farm payrolls led to profit-taking in both gold and silver, but the long-term view remains positive,” he said.
Echoing this view, Darshan Desai, CEO of Aspect Bullion & Refinery, said the yellow metal saw only mild profit-taking after its nearly 50% rally this year. He highlighted that gold remains on track for its seventh consecutive weekly gain despite signs of short-term overbought conditions. “Any correction could draw renewed buying from central banks and ETFs, limiting the downside,” Desai said.
Gold, silver in 2025
Gold and silver have significantly outperformed equities in the first half of FY26, cementing their role as safe-haven assets during global volatility. Gold surged 29.4% in H1FY26 — its best first-half performance in 30 years — while silver soared 41.2%, its strongest since the pandemic year FY21.
In contrast, Indian equities struggled. The Sensex and Nifty managed modest gains of 4.6% and 3.7%, respectively, weighed down by persistent foreign investor selling and a weakening rupee. Both indices posted their weakest H1 showing since FY23.
While short-term corrections are possible, analysts agree that the fundamental drivers for gold — low interest rates, currency weakness, and geopolitical uncertainty — remain firmly in place. Investors may book partial profits, but dips are expected to attract fresh buying, suggesting bullion’s rally is far from over.