Gold price today: Rs 1.56 lakh on MCX; Fed cues awaited - What investors should do

Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday, February 19, as domestic and global bullion markets found support from easing margin norms and renewed safe-haven demand, even as investors remained cautious ahead of key US Federal Reserve signals. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures were trading 0.28 per cent higher at Rs 1,56,204 per 10 grams around midday, while silver gained 0.52 per cent to Rs 2,48,832 per kg.

In the international market, Comex gold rose 0.17 per cent to trade above the psychologically important $5,000 per ounce mark at $5,018.20, while silver advanced 0.38 per cent to $78 per ounce. Market participants are now closely tracking the minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting for clearer guidance on the future trajectory of interest rates.

A key domestic trigger for bullion sentiment came from Indian exchanges. Effective Thursday, both MCX and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) withdrew the additional margins imposed earlier this month to curb volatility. MCX removed the extra 3 per cent margin on all gold futures contracts and the 7 per cent additional margin on silver futures. Analysts say the rollback is likely to ease capital requirements for traders, improve liquidity, and support near-term price stability, particularly after the recent sharp correction in precious metals.

Globally, gold prices have remained volatile. Spot gold slipped to around $4,960 per ounce in early Asian trade after pulling back from record highs seen in late January. A firmer US dollar, which climbed to a one-week high, weighed on bullion as it made dollar-denominated assets more expensive for overseas buyers. US gold futures for April delivery also edged lower in overnight trade before rebounding later in the session.

Investor focus remains firmly on US monetary policy. The January Fed minutes revealed a divergence of views among policymakers, with some officials favouring a pause in rate cuts while others indicated easing could resume if inflation cools further. A few members even flagged the possibility of rate hikes, prompting traders to scale back expectations of aggressive monetary easing. Markets are currently pricing in a high probability of a 350–375 basis-point policy outcome at the next Fed meeting.

Commenting on the price action, Aksha Kamboj, Vice President at the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), said gold appears to be stabilising after its recent decline. “Gold is steady with a mild downward bias as markets digest the sharp correction. Buyers are gradually stepping in at lower levels, and underlying safe-haven demand continues to provide support, pointing to a consolidation phase,” she said.

Kaynat Chainwala, AVP – Commodity Research at Kotak Securities, noted that both gold and silver rebounded after two consecutive losing sessions as investors await Fed cues, US core PCE inflation data, and comments from central bank officials. Mixed signals from Fed members have kept volatility elevated in the near term, she added.

From a technical perspective, analysts continue to advocate a buy-on-dips strategy. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said MCX gold is consolidating in the Rs 1,50,000–Rs 1,60,000 range after correcting from all-time highs near Rs 1,80,000. Strong support is seen in the Rs 1,45,000–Rs 1,50,000 zone, while a sustained breakout above Rs 1,60,800 could revive upside momentum toward Rs 1,65,000–Rs 1,75,000.

On Comex, gold is consolidating within the $4,850–$5,100 band after profit booking from record levels. A decisive move above $5,100–$5,200 could open the door for a fresh retest of highs, keeping the medium-term outlook constructive despite near-term volatility.