Gold rates prediction: More glitter after Rs 1.53 lakh mark? Analysts see this price range near term

Gold and silver prices extended their upward momentum across domestic and global markets on Tuesday, with strong gains visible in futures, spot prices, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). On the MCX, gold traded at Rs 1,53,294 per 10 grams, up 1.24%, while silver surged to Rs 2,37,490 per kg, registering a sharp rise of 3.81%. Gold futures continued to hold firm through the session, trading 1.05% higher at Rs 1,53,010 per 10 grams around 11:44 am IST, before easing marginally to Rs 1,52,835 per 10 grams by 2:20 pm, still up 0.94% for the day.

Internationally, price action remained volatile but supportive. Spot gold slipped to an intraday low of $4,869 per ounce in early Wednesday trade before recovering strongly to hover above $4,942.50 per ounce, marking a 0.75% gain from the previous close. COMEX Gold Futures were quoted at $4,956.1 per troy ounce, up $50.2 or 1.02%, while COMEX Silver Futures jumped 3.05% to $75.785 per troy ounce. The rally was mirrored in gold and silver ETFs, most of which closed higher in line with futures prices.

Gold ETFs traded firmly higher, reflecting strength in underlying gold prices and steady investor participation. Among large funds, HDFC Gold ETF saw a marginal gain of 0.09%, with assets of about ₹22,070 crore and one-month returns of 5.88%, while Mirae Asset Gold ETF rose 0.05%, delivering 6.09% returns over one month and over 22% in three months. SBI Gold ETF advanced 0.26%, ICICI Prudential Gold ETF gained 0.25%, and Nippon India Gold ETF, the largest by AUM at over ₹56,000 crore, climbed 0.24%, posting around 22.5% three-month returns.

Smaller ETFs also moved higher, with Edelweiss Gold ETF up 0.20%, UTI Gold ETF up 0.16%, and Quantum Gold ETF gaining 0.14%. In the actively traded segment, 360 ONE Gold ETF rose 0.85%, LIC Gold ETF gained 0.61%, and Groww Gold ETF added 0.41%. Overall, most gold ETFs delivered 5.8–6.6% one-month returns and 22–23% gains over three months, underlining sustained momentum amid elevated gold prices.

Gold outlook

According to the Indian Bullion Jewellers Association (IBJA), the standard price of gold was fixed at Rs 1,51,963 per 10 grams of 999 purity in the 12:30 pm rate session on February 18, up 0.51% from the previous close of Rs 1,51,195. These benchmark rates are used for valuing the Reserve Bank of India’s Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs), based on the previous week’s average closing price. Aksha Kamboj, Vice President of IBJA, said gold continues to trade at elevated levels compared to previous weeks, suggesting the broader uptrend remains intact despite intermittent corrections.

Kamboj noted that gold has seen sharp pullbacks from recent highs due to heavy profit-booking and a stronger US dollar, triggering a broader sell-off across precious metals. However, she stressed that prices remain well above recent averages, indicating a pause rather than a reversal. On silver, she said the correction has been deeper due to the metal’s higher volatility and its dual exposure to investment and industrial demand. While near-term pressure may persist, she added that sharp corrections typically attract buyers once market conditions stabilise.

The Augmont Bullion report dated February 18 highlighted that both gold and silver edged lower recently as safe-haven demand softened. In the near term, gold is expected to consolidate within a wide band of $4,650–$5,100 per ounce, translating to roughly Rs 1,47,000–Rs 1,60,000 per 10 grams in domestic markets. Analysts recommend a buy-on-dips and sell-on-rallies strategy. Silver is expected to trade within the $70–$90 range, or approximately Rs 2,25,000–Rs 2,85,000 per kg, with similar trading strategies advised. A sustained break below $70 could open further downside toward $64, or near Rs 2,00,000.

Gaurav Garg, Research Analyst at Lemonn Markets Desk, said gold and silver stabilised on February 18 after recent sharp declines as bargain buying emerged at lower levels. “MCX gold hovered near the Rs 1.52–1.55 lakh per 10g zone, while silver saw a modest rebound, reflecting short-covering after heavy profit-booking,” he said, adding that sentiment remains cautious amid a firmer dollar and uncertainty around US Federal Reserve policy. Garg said the current phase should be seen as consolidation within a broader corrective structure rather than a breakdown of the long-term bullish trend.

Will gold touch $6,200 by June 2026?

Looking ahead, UBS Wealth Management remains constructive on gold. Dominic Schnider, Head of Commodities and APAC Forex CIO at UBS, said precious metals continue to benefit from political, geopolitical, and economic uncertainty. “We see gold resuming its climb, rising as high as USD 6,200/oz by mid-year,” he said, citing central bank buying, large fiscal deficits, lower real US interest rates, and geopolitical risks as key drivers. Schnider added that commodities are set to play a more prominent role in portfolios in 2026, with gold remaining an attractive hedge and portfolio diversifier.