Gold scales fresh record near $5,600 on geopolitics, weak US outlook; what lies ahead

Gold, silver prices: Gold surged to a fresh record near the $5,600-an-ounce mark on Thursday as investors flocked to safe-haven assets amid escalating geopolitical tensions and signs of weakening economic momentum in the United States. Silver also extended its blistering rally, crossing $120 globally and hitting new lifetime highs in India.

Spot gold rose 2.2% to $5,516.71 an ounce by 0947 GMT, after touching an all-time high of $5,594.82 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for February delivery jumped nearly 4% to $5,509.60, having earlier peaked at $5,626.80. Gold has now posted record highs for nine consecutive sessions and is up nearly 28% so far this month.

Gold in 2026

Bullion has gained more than 27% this year, driven by US policy uncertainty, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a sharply weaker dollar and intensifying geopolitical risks. “Gold’s perfect storm continues with U.S.-Iran tensions, a weak dollar and market expectations of more Fed easing driving prices to endless record highs,” said Jamie Dutta, market analyst at Nemo.money, adding that strong inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds have further fuelled the rally.

Reflecting rising investor demand, SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, said its holdings rose to 35.04 million ounces on Wednesday, the highest level since May 2022.

In India, gold futures crossed Rs 1,75,000 per 10 grams for the first time and extended gains beyond Rs 1,80,000. “Despite the Fed keeping rates unchanged, bullion rallied further as policymakers flagged concerns over economic growth, reinforcing global uncertainty,” said Jateen Trivedi, Vice President – Research (Commodity and Currency) at LKP Securities. He added that persistent geopolitical tensions and U.S. trade tariff pressures have strengthened safe-haven flows.

Technically, Trivedi said Rs1,70,000 has emerged as a strong support zone, while Rs 1,85,000 is the next resistance, warning that volatility is likely to remain elevated at current levels.

Offering a global technical view, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said COMEX gold remains firmly in an uptrend, holding well above the 20-day EMA near $5,379. “The earlier resistance around $5,600 has now turned into a strong support. A sustained move above this level could open the way toward $5,700–$5,800,” he said.

Ponmudi noted that the rally is being underpinned by heightened geopolitical risks, including renewed tariff tensions, risks around Iran and Venezuela, strategic concerns linked to Greenland, and the rising probability of a U.S. government shutdown, alongside slowing global growth, elevated US debt and persistent central-bank buying amid de-dollarisation trends.

On the MCX, gold hit a fresh lifetime high of Rs 1,77,939 per 10 grams, supported by a relatively stable rupee in the 91.90–92.10 range. A sustained breakout above Rs 1,80,000 could push prices toward Rs 1,85,000–Rs 1,90,000, with even ₹2,00,000 possible if global momentum persists, analysts said.

Silver prices

Silver continued to outperform gold. In India, silver futures surged to Rs 4.20 lakh per kg on the MCX before easing slightly, while global prices climbed to around $118 an ounce, extending gains of more than 66% this year.

COMEX silver is consolidating in the $116.80–$119 range after marginal profit-taking. Ponmudi attributed silver’s strength to robust industrial demand from AI infrastructure, data centres, solar energy and electric vehicles, combined with persistent supply deficits and safe-haven inflows. A decisive move above $118.50–$120 could open targets of $125–$140.

On the MCX, analysts see dips toward the Rs 3.5–3.6 lakh zone as accumulation opportunities within the ongoing uptrend.

Geopolitics and broader metals

Geopolitical tensions remained a key catalyst after U.S. President Donald Trump pressed Iran to negotiate a nuclear deal, warning of stronger retaliation, while Tehran threatened counter-action against the U.S., Israel and their allies. The U.S. dollar hovered near multi-year lows, boosting demand for dollar-priced bullion.

Other precious metals also rallied, with platinum rising to $2,879 an ounce and palladium jumping to $2,165, as investors continued rotating into hard assets amid fading confidence in currencies.

Economic Survey warning

The Economic Survey 2025 flags the surge in gold and silver prices as a signal of mounting global financial and geopolitical uncertainty. It notes that precious metals rallied amid a weakening dollar, expectations of negative real interest rates and elevated tail risks.

While recognising gold as a barometer of risk sentiment, the Survey excludes gold and silver from core inflation, underlining that their price movements are driven by global financial conditions rather than domestic demand. Subdued core inflation excluding these metals points to improving supply-side conditions at home, even as global fragility intensifies.

(With agency inputs)