Silver erases 2026 gains as prices crash 45% from peak - what’s behind the wild swing?

Silver rates today: Silver prices witnessed extreme volatility this week, recording some of their sharpest moves in decades as a rapid sell-off erased early-2026 gains and dragged prices deep into correction territory. The white metal has now fallen more than twice as much as gold from its recent peak, underscoring its reputation as one of the most volatile assets in the precious metals complex.

Over the past week, silver prices have swung wildly, with analysts describing the moves as among the most turbulent since the 1980s. Market participants point to a combination of stretched valuations, supply–demand mismatches and a sudden shift in global risk sentiment as key triggers behind the sharp price action.

Silver sell-off

The sell-off intensified in Friday’s session, with investors continuing to aggressively offload silver, pushing prices firmly into the red for the year. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), the March delivery silver futures contract slumped by another Rs 14,628 per kilogram to hit an intraday low of Rs 2,29,187. The contract also tested the week’s low of Rs 2,25,805.

This extended the week-to-date decline to Rs 27,852 per kilogram, or 10.52%, on top of last week’s steep fall of RS 28,453 per kilogram. In just seven trading sessions, silver has corrected nearly 45.6% from its peak, a drop that is more than double gold’s 17.35% decline over the same period.

Silver in January

The sharp reversal marks a dramatic turnaround for a metal that had enjoyed a record-breaking rally until January 2026. Silver prices had surged past ₹4.20 lakh per kilogram on strong optimism around its dual role as a safe-haven asset and a key industrial metal. However, the speed and scale of the rally left the market vulnerable to even modest shifts in global cues, analysts said.

Silver ETF prices

Silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) mirrored the collapse in underlying prices, registering sharp losses in early trade on February 6, 2026. ETF prices tracked the weakness across domestic MCX contracts and global COMEX prices, with profit booking after a strong rally and a broad correction in precious metals weighing heavily on fund performance.

Silver ETFs saw a broad-based sell-off, with most funds declining between 5% and 8% in line with the steep fall in silver prices. Edelweiss Silver ETF plunged 8.05% to Rs 232.57, while SBI Silver ETF slipped 7.43% to Rs 226.13. Aditya Birla Sun Life Silver ETF fell 7.42% to Rs 231.60, and Kotak Silver ETF dropped 7.09% to Rs 223.29. HDFC Silver ETF declined 7.23% to Rs 220.92.

Other funds also traded sharply lower. UTI Silver ETF fell 7.08% to Rs 222.83, Zerodha Silver ETF declined 7.03% to Rs 223.55, and ICICI Prudential Silver ETF slipped 6.63% to Rs 231.02. Motilal Oswal Silver ETF dropped 6.74% to Rs 227.06, while Nippon India Silver ETF fell 6.56% to Rs 220.92. DSP Silver ETF eased 6.20% to Rs 221.90 and Mirae Asset Silver ETF lost 5.68% to Rs 226.00.

What's behind the wild-wild swing

Several macro and market-specific factors have compounded the pressure. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the US Federal Reserve, a strengthening US dollar, and a sharp sell-off in global technology stocks have all contributed to a risk-off environment, amplifying volatility across commodities, including silver.

“Silver, by nature, reacts more sharply than gold. It is a smaller and thinner market, so when selling starts, the fall appears much steeper,” said Akshat Garg, Head of Research & Product at Choice Wealth. He noted that silver prices had risen too quickly over the past year, with a significant amount of optimistic positioning already built into the market.

“When markets are stretched like that, even small changes in global sentiment can trigger a sharp correction. Right now, a stronger dollar and cooling risk appetite are prompting investors to cut exposure to volatile assets,” Garg said. He added that silver ETFs, which closely track spot prices, have also seen sharp corrections, with lower liquidity during sell-offs exaggerating price declines. According to him, the current phase reflects profit-booking and price adjustment rather than a sudden deterioration in silver’s long-term fundamentals.

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said COMEX silver is currently trading in the $65–$80 per ounce range after correcting from record highs above $121. “While the long-term bullish structure remains intact, prices are below key moving averages, indicating short-term bearish pressure and an extended corrective phase,” he said. Strong buying interest, he added, is visible in the $65–$70 zone, which remains a critical long-term demand area.

On the domestic front, Ponmudi said MCX silver futures are trading around Rs 2,30,000–2,50,000 after falling sharply from record highs. “The Rs 2,25,000–Rs 2,60,000 zone continues to act as a strong demand base. A sustained recovery from this region could open the way for a move towards Rs 3,00,000–3,25,000, while a decisive breakdown may extend the correction,” he said.

Adding to the debate, American economist Peter Schiff pointed out that the steep decline in cryptocurrencies has also weighed on silver prices, as speculative money exited riskier assets. He reiterated his preference for physical silver, arguing that physical supply remains limited relative to long-term demand.

Veteran investor Vijay Kedia, meanwhile, attributed the recent price action largely to speculative excess. In a video shared on X, he drew parallels with past episodes, including the Hunt brothers’ silver corner in 1985 and the sharp rally and crash of 2011. He noted that silver again crossed the $50 per ounce mark in 2025 due to aggressive speculation, and the subsequent breakdown was inevitable. While acknowledging short-term pain, Kedia said he remains constructive on silver over the long run.

Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, said silver’s brief rebound earlier in the week failed to sustain as rising volatility triggered broad-based deleveraging across precious metals. “Silver underperformed as dip-buying interest faded quickly,” she said.

Chainani expects silver to trade in a wide range of $70–$90 per ounce (Rs 2.25–2.85 lakh per kilogram) in the near term. A breakdown below $70 per ounce, she warned, could open the door to further downside towards $64 per ounce, or around Rs 2 lakh per kilogram. She added that silver works best as a supporting allocation within a diversified portfolio, rather than as a core holding, especially during phases of extreme volatility.