You loaded up on gold this Diwali but the real winner’s been hiding in plain sight
From 1990 to 2025, the Sensex 30 delivered an average annual return of 11.5%, versus gold’s 9.5%, based on RBI data. Using rolling returns—measuring performance across every possible investment window—the study analyzed over 6,400 one-year and 3,100 ten-year holding periods.
- Oct 21, 2025,
- Updated Oct 21, 2025 8:11 AM IST
Just bought gold this Diwali? You may want to check the math. As bullion hits a record $4,381.52 an ounce, a 35-year analysis from OmniScience Capital throws cold water on the glitter.
In a column for The Economic Times, Ashwini Shami, the firm’s Executive Vice President and Chief Portfolio Manager, makes a data-driven case: gold may shine in the short term, but equities quietly crush it on returns, safety, and long-term wealth creation.
The surge in gold hasn’t gone unnoticed. September 2025 alone saw ₹8,363 crore flow into Indian gold ETFs, with $15 billion globally, as prices hit ₹1,14,761 per 10 grams. But Shami’s research, looks past the hype and digs into 35 years of hard numbers—revealing that investors chasing gold may be missing out on far better outcomes through equities.
From 1990 to 2025, the Sensex 30 delivered an average annual return of 11.5%, versus gold’s 9.5%, based on RBI data. Using rolling returns—measuring performance across every possible investment window—the study analyzed over 6,400 one-year and 3,100 ten-year holding periods.
The result: Nifty50 consistently beat gold for all durations longer than three years.
More surprising is the capital protection data. Equities, often seen as the riskier bet, preserved investor capital 98.1% of the time over any three-year period. Gold? Just 84%. Investors needed to hold gold for seven years to match Nifty’s safety level.
“This flips traditional thinking,” Shami wrote. “Equities offer not just better growth—but greater safety over realistic timeframes.”
The pattern isn’t unique to India. The S&P 500 returned 9.4% annually over the last 40 years, far ahead of gold’s 5%. Even gold’s status as an inflation hedge doesn’t hold up. OmniScience found gold prices had a negative correlation with inflation: –11.5% with U.S. CPI and –1.5% with India’s.
Shami doesn’t dismiss gold entirely. He recommends a 10–20% allocation for diversification during geopolitical shocks. But beyond that, the numbers don’t justify the obsession.
Just bought gold this Diwali? You may want to check the math. As bullion hits a record $4,381.52 an ounce, a 35-year analysis from OmniScience Capital throws cold water on the glitter.
In a column for The Economic Times, Ashwini Shami, the firm’s Executive Vice President and Chief Portfolio Manager, makes a data-driven case: gold may shine in the short term, but equities quietly crush it on returns, safety, and long-term wealth creation.
The surge in gold hasn’t gone unnoticed. September 2025 alone saw ₹8,363 crore flow into Indian gold ETFs, with $15 billion globally, as prices hit ₹1,14,761 per 10 grams. But Shami’s research, looks past the hype and digs into 35 years of hard numbers—revealing that investors chasing gold may be missing out on far better outcomes through equities.
From 1990 to 2025, the Sensex 30 delivered an average annual return of 11.5%, versus gold’s 9.5%, based on RBI data. Using rolling returns—measuring performance across every possible investment window—the study analyzed over 6,400 one-year and 3,100 ten-year holding periods.
The result: Nifty50 consistently beat gold for all durations longer than three years.
More surprising is the capital protection data. Equities, often seen as the riskier bet, preserved investor capital 98.1% of the time over any three-year period. Gold? Just 84%. Investors needed to hold gold for seven years to match Nifty’s safety level.
“This flips traditional thinking,” Shami wrote. “Equities offer not just better growth—but greater safety over realistic timeframes.”
The pattern isn’t unique to India. The S&P 500 returned 9.4% annually over the last 40 years, far ahead of gold’s 5%. Even gold’s status as an inflation hedge doesn’t hold up. OmniScience found gold prices had a negative correlation with inflation: –11.5% with U.S. CPI and –1.5% with India’s.
Shami doesn’t dismiss gold entirely. He recommends a 10–20% allocation for diversification during geopolitical shocks. But beyond that, the numbers don’t justify the obsession.