India's extreme poverty fell to 2.3% from 21.9% in 12 years, says recent paper co-authored by Panagariya
Between 234 million and 421 million people are estimated to have exited poverty, depending on thresholds and methods, also a likely decline in expenditure inequality between 2011-2 and 2023-24.
- Nov 7, 2026,
- Updated Nov 7, 2026 1:12 PM IST
Between 234 million and 421 million people are estimated to have exited poverty, depending on thresholds and methods, said a recent paper co - authored by Arvind Panagariya, Columbia University professor and Chairman, Sixteenth Finance Commission and Vishal More, founder, Intelink Advisors.
“The Gini coefficient falls nationally and across states, suggesting reduced consumption inequality despite widening spatial and top-income disparities,” it said, adding that overall, recent growth appears broadly inclusive, combining falling poverty with declining expenditure inequality.
The paper titled ‘Poverty and Inequality in India, 2011–12 to 2023–24’ was published in the Economic & Political Weekly (EPW) earlier this year. The paper uses unit-level Household Consumption Expenditure Survey data for 2011–12, 2022–23, and 2023–24, to estimate poverty and inequality in India at the Tendulkar poverty line and at higher expenditure thresholds.
“Extreme poverty declined sharply from 21.9% to 2.3%, with similar reductions across states and social groups, though Scheduled Tribes remain relatively disadvantaged. At higher poverty lines, substantial improvements persist, indicating gains beyond subsistence levels,” it said.
It has used two approaches to estimate the number of people out of poverty at different poverty lines between 2011–12 and 2023–24. Under the first approach it has used population size and the corresponding poverty rate to derive the absolute number of poor in 2011–12 and 2023–24. This approach shows at the Tendulkar Poverty Line (TPL), 234 million individuals were pulled out of poverty within a span of 12 years. At higher poverty lines, the corresponding reductions are considerably larger: 394 million at 1.25×TPL and 421 million at 1.75×TPL, it noted.
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Under the second approach, it applies the 2011–12 poverty rates to the 2023–24 population to obtain the counterfactual number of the poor. The observed number of the poor in 2023–24 is then subtracted from this figure to estimate the decline. At the TPL, the estimate rises to 273 million from 234 million—an increase of 16.7%. At higher poverty lines, the absolute reduction in poverty is larger still. It has pointed out that the number of individuals lifted out of poverty is larger at each poverty line under the second method than under the first.
The authors further held that there is also a likely decline in expenditure inequality between 2011-2 and 2023-24 due to proportionately larger reduction in poverty rates at lower poverty lines. The estimates of the Gini coefficient support this inference, they said.
“The all-India Gini coefficient fell from 35.1% in 2011–12 to 31.7% in 2022–23 and further to 29.1% in 2023–24, with a similar pattern observed in both rural and urban areas,” they said in the paper, underlining that the Gini coefficient remains the most widely used summary indicator of distribution, notwithstanding its well-known limitations
“At the all-India level, expenditure inequality has declined steadily in rural and urban areas and in rural and urban areas combined. The same pattern is observed across states, particularly when 2011–12 is compared with 2023–24,” they said, adding that urban inequality, in particular, registers a consistent—and in several instances, sharp reduction. It is useful to note that the principal measure of inequality employed in this paper—the Gini coefficient—remains the most widely used summary indicator of distribution, notwithstanding its well-known limitations.
In a previous paper published in EPW in November 2025, the authors had said that poverty estimates across social, religious, and economic groups using the Tendulkar modified mixed reference period poverty line for 2011–12, 2022–23, and 2023–24 show a substantial and broad-based decline in poverty.
“No state or union territory now reports a poverty rate in double digits,” Panagariya and More had said.
In three states -- Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim, and Goa, and three union territories- Chandigarh, Delhi, and Daman and Diu, the poverty rate has declined to zero up to the first digit after the decimal point,” they had further said.
Noting that India offers a clear example of substantial poverty reduction through growth while maintaining a democratic polity, they had said, “This wide and deep decline in poverty underscores that there is no single antidote to poverty other than sustained economic growth. The common refrain that growth benefits only the already affluent deserves to be firmly set aside.
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Between 234 million and 421 million people are estimated to have exited poverty, depending on thresholds and methods, said a recent paper co - authored by Arvind Panagariya, Columbia University professor and Chairman, Sixteenth Finance Commission and Vishal More, founder, Intelink Advisors.
“The Gini coefficient falls nationally and across states, suggesting reduced consumption inequality despite widening spatial and top-income disparities,” it said, adding that overall, recent growth appears broadly inclusive, combining falling poverty with declining expenditure inequality.
The paper titled ‘Poverty and Inequality in India, 2011–12 to 2023–24’ was published in the Economic & Political Weekly (EPW) earlier this year. The paper uses unit-level Household Consumption Expenditure Survey data for 2011–12, 2022–23, and 2023–24, to estimate poverty and inequality in India at the Tendulkar poverty line and at higher expenditure thresholds.
“Extreme poverty declined sharply from 21.9% to 2.3%, with similar reductions across states and social groups, though Scheduled Tribes remain relatively disadvantaged. At higher poverty lines, substantial improvements persist, indicating gains beyond subsistence levels,” it said.
It has used two approaches to estimate the number of people out of poverty at different poverty lines between 2011–12 and 2023–24. Under the first approach it has used population size and the corresponding poverty rate to derive the absolute number of poor in 2011–12 and 2023–24. This approach shows at the Tendulkar Poverty Line (TPL), 234 million individuals were pulled out of poverty within a span of 12 years. At higher poverty lines, the corresponding reductions are considerably larger: 394 million at 1.25×TPL and 421 million at 1.75×TPL, it noted.
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Under the second approach, it applies the 2011–12 poverty rates to the 2023–24 population to obtain the counterfactual number of the poor. The observed number of the poor in 2023–24 is then subtracted from this figure to estimate the decline. At the TPL, the estimate rises to 273 million from 234 million—an increase of 16.7%. At higher poverty lines, the absolute reduction in poverty is larger still. It has pointed out that the number of individuals lifted out of poverty is larger at each poverty line under the second method than under the first.
The authors further held that there is also a likely decline in expenditure inequality between 2011-2 and 2023-24 due to proportionately larger reduction in poverty rates at lower poverty lines. The estimates of the Gini coefficient support this inference, they said.
“The all-India Gini coefficient fell from 35.1% in 2011–12 to 31.7% in 2022–23 and further to 29.1% in 2023–24, with a similar pattern observed in both rural and urban areas,” they said in the paper, underlining that the Gini coefficient remains the most widely used summary indicator of distribution, notwithstanding its well-known limitations
“At the all-India level, expenditure inequality has declined steadily in rural and urban areas and in rural and urban areas combined. The same pattern is observed across states, particularly when 2011–12 is compared with 2023–24,” they said, adding that urban inequality, in particular, registers a consistent—and in several instances, sharp reduction. It is useful to note that the principal measure of inequality employed in this paper—the Gini coefficient—remains the most widely used summary indicator of distribution, notwithstanding its well-known limitations.
In a previous paper published in EPW in November 2025, the authors had said that poverty estimates across social, religious, and economic groups using the Tendulkar modified mixed reference period poverty line for 2011–12, 2022–23, and 2023–24 show a substantial and broad-based decline in poverty.
“No state or union territory now reports a poverty rate in double digits,” Panagariya and More had said.
In three states -- Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim, and Goa, and three union territories- Chandigarh, Delhi, and Daman and Diu, the poverty rate has declined to zero up to the first digit after the decimal point,” they had further said.
Noting that India offers a clear example of substantial poverty reduction through growth while maintaining a democratic polity, they had said, “This wide and deep decline in poverty underscores that there is no single antidote to poverty other than sustained economic growth. The common refrain that growth benefits only the already affluent deserves to be firmly set aside.
DO READ: Onion prices surge 108% as food inflation bites harder in rural India