India loses $13 billion worth of food annually: How climate change is worsening the crisis

India is losing an estimated $13 billion annually due to inadequate cold-chain infrastructure, even as extreme weather and rising food prices put pressure on household budgets. A new Climate Trends report warns that up to 40% of fruits and vegetables are lost before reaching consumers, while food inflation is expected to climb to 8.20% in October.

The findings come from a Climate Trends white paper titled From Risk to Resilience: Climate Change, Ecology and the Future of Indian Agriculture, released on November 4. The report highlights how extreme heat, erratic rainfall and inadequate storage infrastructure are exposing India's food supply chains to growing risks.

Why is India losing $13 billion worth of food?

According to the report, inadequate cold-chain infrastructure contributes to an estimated $13 billion in annual losses. Only 4% of India's fresh produce is covered by cold-chain facilities, leaving perishable commodities vulnerable to spoilage during transportation and storage.

The report estimates that up to 40% of fruits and vegetables and 5–6% of grains are lost before reaching consumers.

Dr Palak Balyan, Research Lead at Climate Trends, said, "What this paper clarifies is that India's food losses are not just a farming problem. They are a systems problem. Close to a third of fruits and vegetables are lost before they even reach a consumer."

She added, "Climate change-caused extreme weather events including extreme heat and erratic rainfall are only compounding post-harvest losses."

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Food inflation adds to household pressure

The findings come as India's consumer inflation is expected to accelerate to 5.93% in October from 5.54% in September, according to a November 2–6 Reuters poll of 36 economists.

Food inflation, which accounts for nearly 40% of the consumer price index, is projected to rise to 8.20% from 7.74% in September.

An uneven and deficient southwest monsoon has reduced supplies of essential commodities, while rising global food prices have increased the cost of imported edible oils.

Onion prices have nearly doubled since the beginning of 2026, while meat, milk and eggs have also become more expensive.

How is climate change worsening the crisis?

Rising temperatures accelerate the deterioration of perishable produce, particularly where refrigeration facilities are inadequate.

The Climate Trends report cites a fruit seller at Delhi's Azadpur Mandi who reportedly lost more than ₹1 lakh in a single day during the extreme summer of 2024, as mangoes spoiled faster than usual.

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More than 20 million hectares of agricultural land, representing over 14% of India's total sown area, have been affected by extreme weather events. Additionally, 45% of crop-producing land faces significant flood exposure.

Aarti Khosla, Director of Climate Trends, warned that agricultural shocks extend beyond farms.

"These shocks are evidently going beyond the farm to markets, food prices, household budgets and inflationary pressures across the country," she said.

Dairy production also under pressure

Heat stress is estimated to reduce India's annual milk production by 1.8 million tonnes, resulting in economic losses of approximately ₹2,661 crore.

The report estimates that around 40% of India's livestock population is vulnerable to extreme weather, potentially affecting dairy farmers' incomes and milk availability.

What needs to change?

Climate Trends recommends expanding cold-chain infrastructure, strengthening early-warning systems, improving market access and promoting climate-resilient farming.

Balyan said, "Fixing this requires more than improved weather forecasts. It needs sustained investment in storage, extension services and market access, so farmers aren't left absorbing these losses alone."

Meanwhile, persistent food inflation is complicating monetary policy. The RBI has raised its FY27 inflation forecast to 5.2%, while economists expect another 25-basis-point repo rate increase in December.

The findings underline a wider economic challenge: India must protect agricultural production from increasingly extreme weather while reducing avoidable food losses that can aggravate supply shortages and price pressures.

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