West Asia tensions cloud India’s economic outlook; govt flags risks to oil supply and remittances
Despite the external uncertainties, the Monthly Economic Review for March 2026 said India’s domestic industrial sector remains resilient. Strong growth in steel and cement production, along with steady expansion in coal and fertiliser output, points to continued momentum in infrastructure and construction activity.
- Mar 28, 2026,
- Updated Mar 28, 2026 9:36 PM IST
India’s economic outlook has turned “more uncertain” amid escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia that have disrupted global energy and logistics channels, the Department of Economic Affairs (DEA) said in its Monthly Economic Review for March 2026.
The report noted that India’s economy remained robust until February 2026, supported by strong demand and industrial activity across sectors. “Prior to the onset of these developments, economic activity in India remained robust up to February 2026, with strong performance across both supply and demand-side indicators,” the review said.
However, the conflict in West Asia has heightened risks to global growth and inflation. According to the report, the tensions have tightened global supply conditions, particularly affecting key energy routes.
One of the major disruptions has occurred around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy corridor. The review said ship transits through the strait have nearly come to a halt, dropping to “one a week, as against 200-300 a week,” significantly tightening global oil and gas supplies and pushing prices higher.
The DEA warned that the conflict’s impact on India could be felt through multiple channels, including supply disruptions of oil, gas and fertilisers, rising import prices, higher logistics costs and a potential decline in remittances from Indians working in Gulf countries.
Despite the external uncertainties, the report said India’s domestic industrial sector remains resilient. Strong growth in steel and cement production, along with steady expansion in coal and fertiliser output, points to continued momentum in infrastructure and construction activity.
The financial sector has also continued to support economic activity. Bank credit growth rose 14.5 per cent year-on-year in February, while the overall flow of financial resources to the commercial sector expanded 33.2 per cent annually, the report said.
On the external front, services exports have remained a key pillar of India’s trade performance. The review noted that services trade surplus covered 85.4 per cent of the merchandise trade deficit, helping cushion the country’s overall trade balance.
Looking ahead, the government emphasised that policy vigilance will be crucial as global risks remain elevated. While India’s macroeconomic buffers and policy support provide stability, the report cautioned that “the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside.”
“Continued vigilance and proactive policy measures will be important to mitigate the impact of evolving global uncertainties,” the review concluded.
India’s economic outlook has turned “more uncertain” amid escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia that have disrupted global energy and logistics channels, the Department of Economic Affairs (DEA) said in its Monthly Economic Review for March 2026.
The report noted that India’s economy remained robust until February 2026, supported by strong demand and industrial activity across sectors. “Prior to the onset of these developments, economic activity in India remained robust up to February 2026, with strong performance across both supply and demand-side indicators,” the review said.
However, the conflict in West Asia has heightened risks to global growth and inflation. According to the report, the tensions have tightened global supply conditions, particularly affecting key energy routes.
One of the major disruptions has occurred around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy corridor. The review said ship transits through the strait have nearly come to a halt, dropping to “one a week, as against 200-300 a week,” significantly tightening global oil and gas supplies and pushing prices higher.
The DEA warned that the conflict’s impact on India could be felt through multiple channels, including supply disruptions of oil, gas and fertilisers, rising import prices, higher logistics costs and a potential decline in remittances from Indians working in Gulf countries.
Despite the external uncertainties, the report said India’s domestic industrial sector remains resilient. Strong growth in steel and cement production, along with steady expansion in coal and fertiliser output, points to continued momentum in infrastructure and construction activity.
The financial sector has also continued to support economic activity. Bank credit growth rose 14.5 per cent year-on-year in February, while the overall flow of financial resources to the commercial sector expanded 33.2 per cent annually, the report said.
On the external front, services exports have remained a key pillar of India’s trade performance. The review noted that services trade surplus covered 85.4 per cent of the merchandise trade deficit, helping cushion the country’s overall trade balance.
Looking ahead, the government emphasised that policy vigilance will be crucial as global risks remain elevated. While India’s macroeconomic buffers and policy support provide stability, the report cautioned that “the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside.”
“Continued vigilance and proactive policy measures will be important to mitigate the impact of evolving global uncertainties,” the review concluded.