‘World to warm by nearly 3 degrees by end of century’: UN Gap Report

The latest Emissions Gap Report of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) has noted that despite current pledges under the Paris Agreement, the world would see a 2.5-2.9-degree temperature rise above pre-industrial levels this century if adequate steps are not taken.

Global greenhouse gas emissions rose by 1.2 per cent from 2021 to 2022, reaching a record 57.4 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.

The report noted that until the beginning of October this year, 86 days were recorded with temperatures over 1.5 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels. September was the hottest recorded month ever, with global average temperatures 1.8 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels.     The annual Emissions Gap report, which assesses countries’ promises to tackle climate change compared with what is needed, noted that global low-carbon transformations are needed to deliver cuts to predicted 2030 greenhouse gas emissions of 28 per cent for a 2-degree pathway and 42 per cent for a 1.5-degree pathway.

At 3 degrees Celsius of warming, the report predicted that the world could pass several catastrophic points of no return, from the runaway melting of ice sheets to the Amazon rainforest drying out.

“We know it is still possible to make the 1.5-degree Celsius limit a reality. It requires tearing out the poisoned root of the climate crisis: fossil fuels. And it demands a just, equitable renewables transition,” said Antònio Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations.  

"Present trends are racing our planet down a dead-end 3-degree temperature rise. The emissions gap is more like an emissions canyon,” Guterres added.

The scientists further said that global warming is now more likely to breach the 1.5-degree Celcius threshold by 2027.

GHG emissions

The report further said that current and past greenhouse gas emissions that have led to global warming are unequally distributed globally. It noted that per capita territorial emissions vary significantly across countries since they are more than double the world average of 6.5 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in Russia and the US, while those in India remain under half of that.

The report noted that nearly 80 per cent of historical cumulative emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and land use came from the G20 countries, with the largest contributions from China, the US and the European Union, while the least developed countries contributed just 4 per cent.

India, in contrast, accounts for 18 per cent of the world population, but has contributed just 5 per cent of the warming, the UNEP report noted.

“Inequality in consumption-based emissions is also found among and within countries. Globally, the 10 per cent of the population with the highest income accounted for nearly half (48 per cent) of emissions with two-thirds of this group living in developed countries. The bottom 50 per cent of the world population contributed only 12 per cent of total emissions,” the 2023 emissions gap report released by UNEP.

Net zero targets

As of September 25, 97 nations covering approximately 81 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions had adopted net-zero pledges either in law (27 countries) or in a policy document (54 countries), the report noted. All G20 members except Mexico have set net-zero targets, but overall net-zero goals do not inspire confidence, the report said.

Only nine countries have submitted new or updated nationally determined contributions to reduce emissions since last year’s UN climate summit in Egypt, bringing the total number that have been updated since the 2021 Paris climate pact to 149.

The UNEP said that all nations should deliver economy-wide, low-carbon development. Coal, oil and gas extracted over the lifetime of producing and planned mines and fields would emit over 3.5 times the carbon budget available to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

“The low-carbon development transition poses economic and institutional challenges for low and middle-income countries, but also provides significant opportunities. Transitions in such countries can help to provide universal access to energy, lift millions out of poverty and expand strategic industries,” the UNEP report said. “The associated energy growth can be met efficiently and equitably with low-carbon energy as renewables get cheaper, ensuring green jobs and cleaner air,” the report added.

Countries and prominent world leaders will soon meet in Dubai for the annual COP28 with the aim of keeping the Paris Agreement warming target of 1.5 degree C target.

Also read: Climate crisis is costing countries $391 million a day: Here is what we know so far