Stalin again in Tamil Nadu? Vijay set for blockbuster debut, AIADMK struggles

Tamil Nadu exit poll results | After the voting for the Tamil Nadu assembly elections 2026 concluded, it has become evident that the contest went from a traditional DMK vs AIADMK contest to a multi-pronged fight, mainly due to the blockbuster entry of Tamil superstar Thalapathy Vijay and his Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). 

Elections took place across 234 assembly seats in Tamil Nadu in a single phase on April 23. The southern state logged an overall voter turnout of 85.10%, as per the figures given by the Election Commission.  

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What are the exit polls saying? 

According to India Today-Axis MyIndia poll, Thalapathy Vijay's TVK is likely to have a blockbuster debut, much like the superstar's movies at the box office. The TVK is likely to bag 98-120 seats, whereas the DMK is expected to be a close second with 92-110 seats. 

It predicted that the AIADMK-BJP combine would get only 22-32 seats. AxisMyIndia, however, is the only poll to predict such a massive victory for Vijay.

AxisMyIndia's Pradeep Gupta predicted that both the DMK and the TVK would likely get a vote share of 35 per cent. AIADMK, on the other hand, is likely to secure a vote share of 23 per cent.

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It mentioned that the newly formed political party has found massive support among the youth, with 68% of them being first-time voters and 59% being those aged between 20 and 29. Around 45% of those backing Vijay are in the 30-39 age bracket.

Gupta suggested that Vijay could well be the "next MGR", adding that the TVK is doing extraordinarily well in the Chennai region. Furthermore, the exit poll stated that Thalapathy Vijay (37%) is the most preferred CM face, followed by MK Stalin (35%) and Edappadi K Palanisami (22%).

Besides this, five exit polls have predicted a clear majority for the Chief Minister MK Stalin-led DMK and a decent start for the TVK. According to these exit polls, the AIADMK-BJP combine is likely to remain the second-largest political force in Tamil Nadu. 

Barring these, the Times Now-JVC Exit Poll predicted a landslide majority for the NDA in the southern state, with 128-147 seats likely in its kitty.

Pollsters	DMK	AIADMK	TVK	Others
India Today-Axis My India	92-110	22-32	98-120	--
Vote Vibe	103-113	114-124	4-10	--
Chanakya Strategies	145-160	50-65	--	18-26
Matrize	122-132	87-110	10-12	2-6
Times Now-JVC Exit Poll	75-95	128-147	8-10	--
Peoples Pulse	125-145	65-80	18-24	2-6
Poll of Exit Polls	130	65	31	8
P-MARQ	125-145	65-85	16-26	1-6
Peoples Insight	120-140	60-70	30-40	--

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What works for DMK? 

As per the latest trends, DMK is seen to be slightly ahead due to its governance record and welfare schemes. The reason why Stalin still seems to have an edge is due to the DMK's strong core voter base of around 20 per cent, which includes other backward classes, Dalits, Muslims, Christians, urban lower and lower-middle classes, and women voters, combined with legacy voters. 

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Minority consolidation, particularly Muslim voters, is tilting towards the DMK. Any split in the votes of AIADMK and TVK could indirectly benefit the ruling party in Tamil Nadu. 

Why is Vijay considered influential?

Even though Vijay is not yet seen as a clear winner, he is highly influential as the TVK is targeting the youth and first-time voters and positioning itself as an alternative. 

After the recent SIR exercise, nearly 40 per cent of the total voters in Tamil Nadu are under the age of 39. A little over 17 per cent are in the 20-29 bracket, and some 20 per cent are in the 30-39 age group.

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If he ends up doing well, Vijay might not hurt DMK as much as he could dent the AIADMK's prospects. TVK may cause a dent in anti-DMK votes, particularly those that would go to AIADMK in a traditional two-way contest, making DMK's path to power easier despite anti-incumbency. 

While young voters in the state are gravitating towards the TVK's change narrative, older voters still prefer DMK/AIADMK stability. 

What does it mean for DMK, AIADMK, and TVK?

The stakes are very high for the DMK as well as the AIADMK. For the DMK, it means trying to retain power consecutively and ensuring a smooth leadership transition to Udhayanidhi Stalin.

In the case of AIADMK, it is a make-or-break election as poor performance could trigger an internal crisis. For Vijay, this is the first electoral test ever since he launched his political outfit.