Pinarayi in trouble? Kerala exit poll stuns Left! Signals strong comeback for...

Kerala Exit Poll Results 2026: India Today Axis My India has projected a return for Congress in Kerala. If numbers hold on the counting day, this would be a massive blow for the Pinarayi Vijayan-led UDF government and a massive confidence booster for Congress, which has been on a decline in other states.     

Must read: Exit Poll Results 2026: Axis My India predicts BJP sweep in Assam; Tamil Nadu, Kerala numbers shortly

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What are the exit polls saying? 

Pollsters	LDF	UDF	NDA	Others
India Today-Axis My India	49-62	78-90	0-3
C-Voter
Today's Chanakya
Matrize

What is at stake

The central question is straightforward: can the LDF break Kerala's most reliable political pattern? The state has alternated between the Left-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF with near-clockwork regularity.

Vijayan's LDF defied that trend in 2021, winning 99 of 140 seats in a historic result. A second consecutive win would be unprecedented, and would cement Vijayan's standing as the most dominant political figure in the state's modern history.

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The UDF, led by VD Satheesan and Ramesh Chennithala, has campaigned hard on anti-incumbency and alleged governance lapses, hoping the state's instinct for alternation works in their favour this time. The LDF, for its part, has leaned on its welfare record and, in Vijayan's own words, its bond with the electorate. "False propaganda cannot defeat the LDF… We are with the people, and the people are with us," the Chief Minister said after casting his vote.

What exit polls have said before — and how accurate they were

Exit polls in 2021 broadly anticipated an LDF win but underestimated the scale of it. Most projected the LDF would take 104 to 120 seats, the UDF would be reduced to 20 to 36 constituencies, and the BJP would finish with zero to two seats. The actual result — 99 seats for the LDF — fell slightly below those projections, but the direction was correct.

Exit polls offer a directional read rather than a precise count. They survey voters as they leave polling stations, asking who they voted for and what drove their choice. They are indicative, not definitive — and Kerala, with its sharp swings, has a history of confounding predictions.

The numbers to watch

Kerala has 26,953,644 eligible voters — 13,126,048 male, 13,827,319 female and 277 transgender voters. Turnout figures, combined with exit poll data, will offer the clearest early picture of which way the state is leaning.