Exit poll twists peak: Bengal remains a nail-biter, Assam goes BJP, Kerala swings UDF

Exit Poll Results 2026 today | India Today-Axis My India has projected a massive win for the BJP in Assam, UDF in Kerala, and Vijay's TVK in Tamil Nadu. If these numbers hold, Tamil Nadu will be a major upset as Vijay's TVK will be party number one in its very first election.     

In Assam, NDA is likely to get 48% of the votes, while Congress may settle for just 38% of the votes.  

So far, four exit polls are showing the BJP victory in West Bengal. 

Axis My India's exit poll numbers for West Bengal will be released tomorrow, Thursday (April 30).    

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In Assam, the BJP-led NDA, under the leadership of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, is hoping to secure a third straight term, while the TMC is facing its toughest battle in West Bengal. In Tamil Nadu, all eyes are on M K Stalin and whether the DMK can hold off a resurgent AIADMK-BJP alliance.

Assam Exit Poll Results 2026 (126 seats)

Assam remains one of the BJP's strongest eastern bastions, and the 2026 election is being viewed as a direct referendum on Sarma's leadership. Sarma has served as Chief Minister since May 2021 and has emerged as one of the BJP's most influential regional leaders. The BJP-led NDA currently holds a dominant position in the 126-member Assembly.

Pollsters	BJP	Congress	AIUDF	Others
India Today-Axis My India	88-100	24-36		0-3
People's Pulse	68-72	22-26
P-MARQ	82-94	30-40		1-5
Matrize	85-95	25-32		6-12
JVC	88-101	22-33		2-5
Poll of Polls	88	27		7

Kerala Exit Poll Results 2026 (140 seats)

IndiaToday-Axis My India has projected a major win for Congress-led UDF in Kerala. 

Pollsters	LDF	UDF	BJP	Others
India Today-Axis My India	49-62	78-90	0-3
People's Pulse	55-65	75-85	0-3
P-MARQ	62-69	71-79	1-4	0-3
Matrize	60-65	70-75	3-5	2-4
JVC	52-61	72-84	3-7	0-0
Poll of Exit Polls	59	77	2	2

Kerala witnessed a three-cornered contest between the ruling Left Democratic Front led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, the opposition United Democratic Front led by the Indian National Congress, and the Bharatiya Janata Party, which is seeking to expand its footprint.

Polling in the southern state took place in a single phase on April 9, with an overall voter turnout of 78.27%.

The LDF is attempting to retain power after its historic 2021 re-election, while the UDF is banking on anti-incumbency and local dissatisfaction. Key contests are expected in Thiruvananthapuram, Thrissur, Palakkad, Kannur, and Ernakulam, where close margins and candidate strength could matter.

In Kerala's 140-seat Assembly, even small vote swings can have an outsized impact, making exit polls especially closely watched.   

Tamil Nadu Exit Poll Results

Tamil Nadu's battle has evolved into one of the closest contests in recent years. Stalin, who became Chief Minister in 2021 after leading the DMK back to power, is seeking a second consecutive term. But unlike the comfortable victory the DMK secured five years ago, several opinion polls have indicated a razor-thin race between the DMK alliance and the AIADMK-BJP combine. 

Pollsters	DMK	AIADMK	TVK	Others
India Today-Axis My India	92-110	22-32	98-120	0-0
P-MARQ	125-145	65-85	16-26	1-6
Matrize	122-132	65-85	16-26	1-6
People's Pulse	125-145	65-80	18-24	2-6
Chankya Strategies	145-160	52-65	0-0	18-26

The BJP, despite remaining a smaller force in Tamil Nadu politics, has attempted to expand its footprint through its alliance with the AIADMK. Actor-turned-politician Vijay and his TVK party have also added unpredictability to the contest, especially among younger and urban voters. 

Polling for all 234 Tamil Nadu Assembly seats took place in a single phase on April 23, with a historic voter turnout of 85.10%. 

Several surveys projected the AIADMK-BJP alliance hovering near the majority mark, while others still gave the DMK alliance a narrow advantage, suggesting that even a small swing in turnout or alliance arithmetic could determine the outcome. 

West Bengal Exit Poll Results 2026

The most closely watched contest of the election season remains West Bengal, where Mamata Banerjee is attempting to secure a fourth consecutive term as Chief Minister. Banerjee has been in office since 2011 and continues to dominate Bengal politics, but the BJP has significantly expanded its organisational presence since the 2021 Assembly polls. 

Pollsters	BJP	TMC	Congress	Left
India Today-Axis My India
JVC	138-159	131-152	0-2	0-0
P-MARQ	150-175	118-138	0-0	0-0
Matrize	146-161	125-140	0-0	0-0
People's Pulse	95-110	177-187	1-3	0-1
Chankya Strategies	150-160	130-140	0-0	0-0
Janmat Polls	80-90	195-205	1-3	0-1
Poll Diary	142-171	99-127	3-5	2-3
Poll of Polls	137	147	2	2

The second and final phase of polling across 142 constituencies saw over 90% voter turnout till 5 pm. 

The BJP has framed the election as an opportunity to break the TMC's long dominance in the state, while Mamata Banerjee has accused central agencies and security forces of attempting to influence the electoral process. 

Opinion polls released before the final phase suggested the TMC still held an advantage, but with the BJP narrowing the gap considerably. Some projections even pointed to a near neck-and-neck race, raising the possibility of one of the most dramatic Bengal results in decades. 

Puducherry Exit Polls Results 2026

Pollsters	BJP-plus	Congres-plus	Others
India Today-Axis My India	16-20	6-8	3-7
People's Pulse	16-19	10-12	1-2
Poll of Exit Polls	17	9	3