ICC World Cup: Can Afghanistan secure their space in the semifinals? Here are the situations and calculations

After defeating Sri Lanka in the ODI no. 30 of the ongoing 2023 World Cup, Team Afghanistan are making experts think whether it can evacuate one of the top teams and make space for itself. Chasing 242, Afghanistan cruised to 242/3 in 45.2 overs, mainly due to the excellent performance of their batsmen. After losing opener Rahmanullah Gurbaz for a four-ball duck to Sri Lankan bowler Dilshan Madushanka, Afghanistan played a cool innings with captain Hashmatullah Shahidi hitting 58 runs off 74 balls. He was supported by Azmatullah Omarzai, who scored 73 runs off 63 balls taking Afghanistan past the finishing line. Rahmat Shah also made an important innings at no. 3, and scored a decisive 62 runs off 74 balls.

Before this, Afghanistan defeated Pakistan by eight wickets in Chennai, and defending champion England in Delhi.

World Cup Semifinals

At present, India tops the list of playing teams with 12 points, followed by South Africa, New Zealand and Australia. With three wins, three losses, Afghanistan are in the fifth spot. Afghanistan will likely need to win all of their remaining three matches if they are to make it to the next round. Afghanistan will face the Netherlands on November 3), Australia on November 7, South Africa on November 10.

At 8 points, Australia are in the fourth spot. If they win all three remaining matches in the ODI World Cup except the one against Afghanistan, they will have 12 points. 

If Afghanistan wins all three matches, their net run rate will improve.  If Afghanistan can win all the remaining games, they will end with 12 points. At this point, the team with the better net run-rate (NRR) will progress further. 

Afghanistan have to surpass Australia's NRR to make it to the semifinal round. Currently, Australia have a NRR of +0.970, while Afghanistan's is -0.718.

If Afghanistan lose one of the three matches lined up, they have to hope Australia or New Zealand lose one or more than one match to qualify further.

Afghanistan top batters, bowlers

Earlier, Afghanistan captain Hashmatullah Shahidi said that their batters need to step up and offer support to their world-class spin-bowling attack. With former England batter Jonathan Trott by their side, Afghanistan have given their best so far by performing under pressure, chasing down 283 against Pakistan and 242 against Sri Lanka after defending 284 by 69 runs against England.

In the first two wins, Afghan opener Rahmanullah Gurbaz played a crucial role. Against England, the batter scored 80 in only 57 balls, which helped Afghanistan set a target of 285. Against Pakistan, he came up with a steady 65 in 53 balls, which gave his team a flying start in the chase.

But against Sri Lanka, he scored zero runs.

Other players who have crucial innings in the three wins are captain Hashmatullah Shahidi (48 in 45 balls vs Pakistan) and 58 off 74 balls vs Sri Lanka. Rahmat Shah scored 77 in 84 balls vs Pakistan, and then hit a decisive 62 runs off 74 balls. Other top run getters are Mujeeb Ur Rahman (3/51 vs England), Rashid Khan (3/37 vs England), Noor Ahmad (3/49 vs Pakistan), and Ibrahim Zadran (87 in 113 deliveries vs Pakistan).

In terms of bowling, Fazalhaq Farooqi, who replaced Noor Ahmed, took 4 wickets against Sri Lanka while Mujeeb UR Rahman picked up 2 wickets.

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