Markets Turn Bullish On Trade Deal Signals And SBI’s Credit Growth Outlook

Indian equity markets opened strongly on February 9, 2026, with the Nifty around 25,800-25,888 and Sensex ~84,000, riding optimism from the India-US interim trade deal framework announced over the weekend. The pact reduces US tariffs on Indian goods to 18% (from 50%, scrapping extra 25% tied to Russian oil buys), boosts bilateral trade toward $500 billion, and includes tariff cuts/eliminations on key exports like textiles, pharma, gems, and agri products. Kshitiz Mahajan, CEO of Complete Circle PMS, described the mood as constructively positive, with negatives already priced in and positives (US/EU deals, potential Ukraine-Russia pause) ahead. He urged reasonable expectations (11–12% compounded returns amid 7% GDP + low inflation), disciplined asset allocation, and staggered equity deployment over 8-10 weeks. Banking remains robust (e.g., SBI strong results; holdings like Federal Bank, RBL Bank); favors financial value chain plays. Wary of IT disruptions, high-competition consumption, and heavy govt-dependent sectors; limited PSU exposure. Advocates 5-7% gold allocation for hedging, cautious on commodities/silver amid volatility.