As India steps into the new calendar year, economists are assessing whether the economy is entering a so-called ‘Goldilocks phase’ — a period marked by steady growth, improving demand and manageable inflation. In this discussion, Saugata Bhattacharya, Senior Fellow at CPR and Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, explains how coordinated policy reforms undertaken in 2025 could begin delivering tangible results in calendar year 2026, even in the absence of major global trade tailwinds. He highlights the revival in private final consumption expenditure (PFCE), which has grown at 7.8%, signalling a reversal of the slowdown seen over the past few years and suggesting a transfer of income strength to households. Siddhartha Sanyal, Chief Economist at Bandhan Bank, adds that private consumption remains the bedrock of India’s growth model, typically contributing a large share to GDP expansion, and its renewed momentum provides a strong foundation for investment-led growth ahead. Together, they outline why the recovery in consumption, combined with reform-driven momentum, could shape India’s economic trajectory in 2026.
With India’s first advance estimates pointing to weaker-than-expected nominal GDP growth, attention now turns to the assumptions the government may make in the forthcoming Union Budget. In this conversation, Saugata Bhattacharya, Senior Fellow at CPR and Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, outlines why policymakers are likely to rely on a broad set of inflation forecasts from the RBI, government think tanks and the Chief Economic Adviser’s office. He suggests that with CPI inflation expected to hover around 3.5–4% and WPI inflation around 2.5–3%, nominal GDP growth assumptions for the next fiscal year could settle in the 9.5–10.5% range. Siddhartha Sanyal, Chief Economist, Bandhan Bank, adds that a partial normalisation of the gap between real and nominal GDP is likely, making a near double-digit nominal growth estimate a realistic working assumption for the upcoming Budget.
India’s nominal GDP growth has come in at around 8%, more than 200 basis points lower than the assumptions made in the Union Budget, raising important questions about fiscal management, banking profitability and growth expectations ahead. In this discussion, Siddhartha Sanyal, Chief Economist, Bandhan Bank, explains why the unusually narrow gap between real and nominal GDP reflects persistently low inflation rather than an economic shock. He highlights the challenges this creates for managing the fiscal deficit, given a lower-than-expected nominal GDP denominator, and the potential implications for credit growth, deposit mobilisation and corporate earnings. Saugata Bhattacharya, Senior Fellow at CPR and Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, shares his outlook on inflation trends, commodity prices and the GDP deflator, suggesting that nominal growth is likely to normalise in FY27 as CPI and WPI pressures gradually pick up. The conversation underscores how high growth with low inflation, while desirable, presents near-term policy and fiscal trade-offs for the government.
India’s economy is expected to grow at a robust 7.4% in FY26, according to the Government of India’s First Advance Estimates, marking a sharp rise from 6.5% in FY25. In this edition of Business Today, Siddharth Zarabi, Group Editor, Business Today, anchors a detailed discussion with Saugata Bhattacharya, Senior Fellow at CPR and Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, and Siddhartha Sanyal, Chief Economist at Bandhan Bank, on the drivers behind India’s growth momentum. The estimates project nominal GDP growth of 8% and real GVA growth of 7.3%, led by strong expansion in the services sector, particularly financial, real estate and professional services, along with steady growth in manufacturing and construction, rising private consumption, and improved gross fixed capital formation. The panel analyses what the FY26 growth outlook means for the Union Budget, inflation trends, investment climate, and the broader Indian economic outlook amid global uncertainties
Shriram Finance expects shareholders to start seeing value accretion from the very first year of its partnership with Japanese major MUFG. Speaking to Business Today, Vice Chairman Umesh Revankar said the company will continue running its business model as before, but with the ability to grow faster, improve efficiency and strengthen profitability. Revankar stressed that while there is no fixed timeline to judge the deal, early performance should give investors confidence that it is a win-win partnership. Drawing parallels with successful Indo-Japanese collaborations, he said the immediate focus will remain India-centric, citing strong domestic growth potential aligned with the government’s Roadmap to 2047. Overseas opportunities may be explored later, but India remains the priority.
Shriram Finance has reiterated that it has no plans to apply for a banking licence, maintaining a clear strategic preference for remaining an NBFC. Speaking to Business Today, Vice Chairman Umesh Revankar said there have been no discussions - formal or informal - with Japanese partner MUFG on becoming a bank. Revankar explained that the NBFC structure allows Shriram Finance to maintain a direct, closer relationship with customers, enabling greater innovation, customization and service flexibility. He added that while banks operate across multiple activities such as deposits and overdrafts, Shriram Finance’s strength lies in its focused lending model. According to him, remaining an NBFC is better aligned with customer needs and the company’s expertise, reinforcing the philosophy that what benefits the customer ultimately benefits the business.
Shriram Finance is aiming for a significant reduction in its cost of capital over the next two to three years, driven by balance-sheet strengthening and a potential credit rating upgrade. Speaking to Business Today, Vice Chairman Umesh Revankar said improved fundamentals will allow lenders to view the company more positively, leading to incremental repricing of liabilities. Revankar expects a 40 basis point benefit initially, expanding to nearly 100 basis points over 24 months as access to diversified funding sources improves. A higher credit rating would enable Shriram Finance to tap lenders that typically work only with top-rated borrowers. Currently, the company’s liability cost stands at around 8.8%, which it aims to bring down meaningfully through better ratings and broader funding access.
In a landmark deal, Japanese lender MUFG Bank is set to invest ₹39,620 crore in Shriram Finance Ltd (SFL) via preferential allotment of equity shares, priced at ₹841 per share. The investment, at a post-money valuation of 1.8 times the price-to-book value, will bolster Shriram Finance’s capital base, enhance balance sheet resilience, and provide long-term growth capital. This marks the largest foreign direct investment (FDI) in India’s banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI) sector. The deal represents approximately 66% of Shriram Finance’s net worth as of September 2025. Following the transaction, the promoter’s stake will reduce to 20.3% from 25.4% in September 2025. Watch Siddharth Zarabi, Group Editor at Business Today, in an exclusive conversation with Umesh Revankar, Executive Vice Chairman of Shriram Finance, as they discuss the MUFG deal and the company’s growth outlook for the future.
Ambassador Dr Mohan Kumar, Former Diplomat, explains why President Putin’s state visit to India is a moment of huge geopolitical significance. With the world shifting from a unipolar to a multipolar order, India is asserting its independent foreign policy despite Western sanctions on Russia and tensions with the United States. Key priorities include de-risking exports by expanding opportunities in Russia—particularly in garments, shrimps, textiles, and pharmaceuticals—while also strengthening defence ties with potential full technology transfer and joint production of cutting-edge systems. All eyes will be on the visit’s outcome document, India’s body language, and the reactions from Washington and Europe, especially on Ukraine’s mention in the joint statement.
Russian President Vladimir Putin begins a landmark two-day visit to India, his first since the Ukraine war began in 2022. Arriving in Delhi for the 23rd India–Russia Annual Summit, Putin will hold crucial talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on trade, defence, energy, healthcare, education, and cultural cooperation. Several major agreements are expected, even as India navigates with the US and the challenge of Trump-era tariffs and sanctions. Following a private dinner hosted by PM Modi, the visit carries significant economic and strategic stakes.Watch Siddharth Zarabi, Group Editor Business Today in conversation with Jayant Krishna, Senior Fellow, CSIS and Ambassador Dr Mohan Kumar, Former Diplomat as they break down the business and economic stakes of this historic visit.
Business Today's special coverage of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India, the India Today Group brings you a world exclusive interview with the Russian leader, offering rare insights into the evolving India–Russia relationship and the shifting global order. In this special broadcast, we decode the key diplomatic signals ahead of the Modi–Putin meeting, assess the strategic, business and geopolitical stakes, and analyse what this high-profile visit means for both nations. Catch Siddharth Zarabi, Group Editor, Business Today in conversation with Divesh Kumar, CEO of SafePharm (based in Moscow), and Manish Kumar, Vice Chairman of the Moscow Chamber of Commerce (Indian Commission), breaking down the implications for trade, defence, energy and global diplomacy.
The Indian Rupee has breached the 90 mark, triggering intense debate across markets and industries. Is this a warning sign or a strategic advantage for India’s economy? In this discussion, experts highlight that a falling rupee cuts both ways — exporters gain competitiveness while import costs rise. However, the movement is largely driven by market forces, and once the US agreement is finalized, a reversal or stabilization may follow. Despite currency pressure, India continues to shine with quarterly GDP growth crossing 8%, a milestone achieved by very few global economies today. Whether you’re an importer, exporter, investor, or market watcher, this breakdown reveals why the narrative isn’t just about decline — it’s about opportunity.
In this insightful discussion, we explore whether the recent GST-driven surge in demand is sustainable and what it means for India’s growth trajectory. With ₹2.4 lakh crore returned to consumers, sectors like automobiles are witnessing record sales and strong momentum. While growth levels may normalize after the festival surge, the overall trend is expected to remain significantly higher than previous years. The conversation also delves into the private capex debate - why corporate India has been slow to invest in new capacity and whether that cycle is about to turn. As capacity utilization rises and demand stabilizes, a new wave of private investment may finally be on the horizon, complementing the government’s capex push and strengthening India’s global competitiveness.
In an exclusive conversation, Anant Goenka, President of FICCI, highlights the significance of President Vladimir Putin’s state visit to India at a critical global geopolitical moment. Goenka underscores that India-Russia relations are time-tested, built on deep defense partnerships and decades of mutual support. While political ties are strong, he believes business potential remains vastly underutilized, with huge opportunities in pharma, IT, heavy engineering, and manufacturing. Goenka reveals that more than 100 Russian CEOs will accompany the delegation, meeting Indian industry leaders to explore new trade possibilities from both sides. He also indicates potential progress in labour and manpower exports to Russia, given Russia’s smaller workforce and large economy- an untapped opportunity that could reshape bilateral economic engagement.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s India visit is set to strengthen longstanding strategic ties between New Delhi and Moscow. Leading a high-level government and business delegation, the agenda focuses on enhancing cooperation in defence, energy and trade, while also advancing a key logistics pact known as ‘RELOS’ aimed at improving military mobility between the two nations. Discussions are expected to include a mobility agreement addressing skilled workforce access and smoother trade movement, alongside several significant defence-sector announcements. To unpack the implications of this crucial diplomatic engagement, Manish Kumar, Vice Chairman of the Moscow Chamber of Commerce and Industry, joins Business Today’s Group Editor, Siddharth Zarabi, for an in-depth conversation.
India’s growth outlook remains strongly positive despite recent volatility, says Anant Goenka, President of RPG Group and FICCI (2023–24). Reflecting on the economic environment, he notes that the first half of the year was marked by high uncertainty, with sectors like gems & jewellery, garments, and marine exports impacted by U.S. tariff pressures. However, he confirms that a U.S.–India trade deal is nearly finalized, and once signed, the rupee may stabilize, offering relief to several industries. Goenka highlights significant progress from recent FTAs and expects the latest U.S. agreement to go beyond tariff matters. He emphasizes strengthening ties with Russia, with vast trade opportunities still unexplored. FICCI has recommended support measures for MSMEs, continued focus on ease of doing business, and further tax & GST relief, which already placed ₹2.4 lakh crore into consumers’ hands, boosting demand. He believes India is on track to become the factory of the world and urges the RBI to prioritize growth with a 25 bps rate cut. Overall, Goenka expects stronger economic expansion ahead.
India posted a stellar macro showing in Q2 FY26, with GDP rising 8.2% vs 7.8% QoQ, smashing estimates, while GVA came in strong at 8.1% versus 5.8% a year ago. Manufacturing surged 9.1% against 2.2% last year, and services expanded 9.2% versus 7.2%. Private consumption grew 7.9%, and gross fixed capital formation rose 7.3%, signalling resilient demand, though government consumption contracted 2.7%. Agriculture grew 3.5% and mining remained flat. For April–September, GDP increased 8.0% and nominal GDP 8.8%. The fiscal deficit touched 52.6% of the FY26 target by October, underscoring strong economic momentum. Watch Siddharth Zarabi, Group Editor, Business Today, break down these blockbuster GDP numbers in conversation with Radhika Rao, ED & Senior Economist, DBS Bank, Singapore; Siddhartha Sanyal, Chief Economist, Bandhan Bank; and Rumki Majumdar, Economist, Deloitte
As one of the world’s most respected business schools, the Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad (IIMA) continues to shape leaders who navigate complexity with clarity. In an era of rapid technological change, global realignments, and shifting student aspirations, Business Today’s Group Editor Siddharth Zarabi speaks exclusively with Prof. Bharat Bhasker, Director of IIM Ahmedabad, on the evolving landscape of management education, technological transformation, and the institute’s global vision for the future.
As Samvat 2081 draws to a close, markets head into Diwali almost flat, With Sensex and Nifty up 0.1% each, while Bank Nifty gained 9%. Midcap and Smallcap indices fell 2% and 7.4%. Nifty Capital Markets surged 29%, Defence 18%, and PSU Banks 14%, while Media, IT, and Realty declined sharply. Top gainers included Eicher Motors, Bajaj Finance, BEL, and Maruti, while Trent, TCS, and Infosys led losers. Gold rose 55%, Silver 64%. Ahead Of Samvat 2082, Business Today TV brings an exclusive Diwali Special Market Masters with Rajeev Thakkar, CIO & Director PPFAS Mutual Fund in discussion with Siddharth Zarabi, Group Editor, Business Today. Tune in for insights on sectors, trends, and festive investment strategies
The landmark India–UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is being hailed as a “hugely important” breakthrough by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who is on his first official visit to India since taking office. The deal slashes tariffs on 90% of UK product lines, with average duties dropping from 15% to 3%, while the UK eliminates tariffs on 99% of Indian exports. Bilateral trade, currently at USD 56 billion, is projected to double by 2030, creating massive opportunities for sectors such as textiles, gems and jewellery, leather goods, agriculture, whisky, gin, aerospace, and luxury cars. Starmer, leading the UK’s largest-ever trade delegation to India, described the FTA as “not just a piece of paper, but a launchpad for growth,” as both nations gear up for a new era of economic partnership under ‘Vision 2035’. In this discussion, we decode what the deal means for businesses, jobs, and future trade ties with Sanjay Nayar (President, ASSOCHAM), Jayant Krishna (Senior Fellow, CSIS; former Group CEO, UKIBC), and Professor K. Vijayraghavan (Tata Institute of Fundamental Research).
Dr. Robyn Klingler-Vidra, co-author of Startup Capitalism, Associate Professor in Political Economy and Entrepreneurship at King’s College London and Vice Dean for Global Engagement in an exclusive chat with Siddharth Zarabi, Group Editor, Business Today, brings her expertise on East Asia’s innovation strategies to the discussion, comparing India’s startup ecosystem with models in Japan, Korea, China, and beyond. The conversation explores how India’s entrepreneurial boom, fueled by Startup India and digital infrastructure, stacks up globally, and whether it can drive long-term economic growth. From Shark Tank India to China’s 996 and 007 work cultures, and from the role of government policy to lessons in AI and semiconductors, Dr. Vidra provides sharp, global perspectives. Joined by senior India Today editors and students of the India Today Media Institute, this engaging dialogue captures the opportunities and challenges shaping India’s future in the world of startups.
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