Adani Power vs Tata Power: Price targets, outlook, key financials post Q3 earnings 

Adani Power vs Tata Power: Shares of Adani Power and Tata Power have reacted differently to their earnings for the quarter ended December 2025. While Adani Power shares have gained 13% post Q3 earnings, Tata Power shares are largely unchanged since February 4 (earnings date). In terms of stock price movement, Adani Power shares are in an uptrend, rising 65% from the 52-week low of Rs 93.23 reached on February 25, 2025. The Adani Group stock also trades higher than all the short-term and long-term moving averages. 

In terms of financials, Adani Power has clocked delivered strong profit CAGR of 65.7% and a revenue CAGR of 93.9% over the last 5 years. 

On the other hand, Tata Power shares have not clocked positive returns since two years except for a 5.31% return in two weeks. 

The Tata Group stock trades lower than the 30 day, 50 day, 100 day, 150 day and 200 day but higher than the 5 day, 10 day and 20 day simple moving averages. 

In terms of financials, Tata Power has clocked delivered strong profit CAGR of 84% and a revenue CAGR of 24.5% over the last five years. 

In the current session, shares of Adani Power were tradign on a flat note at Rs 152.75. Market cap of the firm stood at Rs 2.94 lakh crore. Total 8.92 lakh shares of the firm changed hands amounting to a turnover of Rs 13.58 crore. 

Tata Power stock rose 0.15% to Rs 364.85 today against the previous close of Rs 364.30 on BSE. Market cap of the firm rose to Rs 1.16 lakh crore. Total 1.13 lakh shares of the firm changed hands amounting to a turnover of Rs 4.08 crore

Adani Power 

JM Financial has a price target of Rs 177 on the Adani Group stock. 

"With key enablers in place (land, EC, PPAs, and equipment) and management’s assurance of timely commissioning of projects, we expect operational capacity to reach 39.5 GW by FY32 and EBITDA/MW to increase from Rs 1.3 crore /MW in FY25 to Rs 1.8 crore/MW by FY32. We maintain a BUY rating on the stock with TP of Rs 177 per share, valuing the company at 13x FY28 EV/EBITDA," said Adani Power. 

Morgan Stanley has maintained its overweight stance with a target price of Rs 185 on the Adani Group stock. Operational performance was largely in line, said the global brokerage mentioning that adjusted PAT beat was due to lower interest and tax. 

The Adani Group firm has received 3,200MW LoAs and has large capacity additions plans over F26-29. 

ICICI Securities has a price target of Rs 187 on the stock. 

The domestic brokerage said Adani has resolved its disputes, reduced the leverage and improved the profits of its operating assets. It is using its balance sheet to acquire assets at attractive prices. It is also setting up new assets to meet renewed demand for coal. It is ahead of competition in new build. 

"As a result, it is able to tie up its existing assets under new long-term arrangements at attractive tariffs. Given the lower growth in power demand across the country in 9MFY26, resulting in lower realisation in merchant sale, which formed 20% of its power sales and lower PLFs, we revise our FY26E earnings. Our long-term outlook remains intact. We maintain BUY, with an unchanged target price of Rs 187," said the brokerage. 

However, the assumptions face likely challenges such as delays in construction of assets; merchant price risk; fuel risk; and counterparty risks. 

Tata Power

Nuvama has a Hold call on Tata Power with a target price of Rs 388 (earlier Rs 385). 

The brokerage said profit after tax was affected due to Coastal Gujarat Power Ltd losses amid plant shutdown awaiting SPPA resolution. Profit after tax was adjusted for one-off regulatory gains of Rs 340 crore in Delhi discom.  

Nuvama said standalone PAT was negative due to Mundra plant shutdown. 

However, the performance of Odisha discoms improved sharply with profits up 2.6 times YoY on better billing efficiency. According to Nuvama, solar module manufacturing profitability may dip in Q4FY26 as captive consumption rises. 

The brokerage said the management continues to target Rs 10,000 crore profit by FY30E as RE and PSP projects scale up. However, losses at CGPL are expected to continue. 

Brokerage Elara said Tata Power stands to benefit from power transmission capex, power distribution reforms and green investments. The brokerage aims to raise its RE capacity  to 20GW by FY30 and has capex plans of Rs 1.25 lakh crore for FY26-30. The firm is implementing 2.8GW of PSP projects and has a sizeable opportunity in solar EPC. 

"We maintain BUY with an unchanged SoTP-target price of Rs 504. We have retained our earnings estimate," said Elara. 

JM Financial has a buy call on the Tata Power stock with a price target of Rs 429 against the earlier Rs 475. 

"We estimate the company to report FY25-28 CAGR of 7%/11%/14% in Revenue/ EBITDA/ PAT. We maintain BUY, with an SOTP-based revised target price of Rs 429 (a 15% upside) implying 12.6 times EV/EBITDA and 2.8x P/B on FY28," said JM Financial.