Cochin Shipyard: Planning to buy post Q4? Kotak Equities outlook might change your call 

Cochin Shipyard shares: Shares of Cochin Shipyard came under intense selling pressure today amid Kotak Institutional Equities 'Sell' rating on the defence stock with a price target of Rs 830 per share. The price target implies a 48% downside from Friday's close of Rs 1595.15. Kotak's views on the stock came after the defence firm announced its Q4 earnings. 

Consolidated net profit fell 31.7% to Rs 175 crore in Q4 compared to Rs 256 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. A fall in revenue contributed to the decline. Revenue from operations of the defence firm slipped 15.6% to Rs 1,484 crore in Q4 against Rs 1757.65 crore in the year ago period. 

The board recommended a final dividend of Rs 1.5 per equity share of face value Rs 5 each, for the financial year 2025-26. The final dividend would be paid within 30 days from the date of its declaration at the AGM.

Reacting to earnings, Cochin Shipyard shares slipped 7.53% to Rs 1475 today against the previous close of Rs 1595.15.  Market cap of the firm fell to Rs 39,873 crore. The stock fell to a 52-week low of Rs 1186.55 on March 30, 2026. Cochin Shipyard has a one-year beta of 1.45, indicating very low volatility during the period. 

Cochin Shipyard shares are trading lower than the 5 day, 20 day, 50 day, 100 day, 200 day moving averages, indicating bearishness in the defence stock.

According to Kotak Equities, Q4 earnings came 9% below its estimates flagging normalization of ship-repair margins after the execution of one-time ship repair orders for INS Vikrant and Vikramaditya. 

For FY27, Kotak reduced its estimates for Cochin Shipyard by 6% to 8% due to weak execution and profitability in 4QFY26. 

Kotak also underscored the progress in tie-ups with HD KSOE, Maersk, and Drydocks World, along with the recently announced expansion of the Vadinar ship-repair facility, which is expected to act as a key catalyst for the stock following the Indian government’s Rs 700 billion shipbuilding package. On the defence side, the landing platform dock order remains a major trigger for the company.

Antique Stock Broking said Cochin Shipyard's consolidated revenue came below its estimate of Rs 1,720 crore. In the ship repair segment, revenues fell sharply by around 61 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 330 crore, with margin pressure in the segment. However, shipbuilding revenues rose 25% Y-o-Y to Rs 1150 crore  , backed by steady execution across key projects.
 
EBITDA margins came at 20.9 per cent, rising 575 bps Y-o-Y and 705 bps Q-o-Q, significantly ahead of expectations. The improvement was led by a 45 per cent Q-o-Q fall in other expenses and a net reversal of provisions during the quarter. 

According to Antique, the defence company’s order pipeline remains strong, driven by the Rs 3,240 crore CMA contract for six LNG-powered container vessels and its L1 position in the Indian Navy’s Next Generation Survey Vessel programme worth Rs 5,000 crore. The long-term shipbuilding outlook is also supported by expected ASW Corvette deliveries from FY28E, which are likely to provide a significant boost to revenues. However, ship repair revenues may stay volatile in the near term due to the lack of large refit orders comparable to INS Vikramaditya.

Antique Stock Broking maintained its 'Hold' rating on Cochin Shipyard, with a revised target price of Rs 1,693, from earlier Rs 1,390. The brokerage noted that current valuations already account for a relatively optimistic execution trajectory and remain at a significant premium to peers such as Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders.