ITC shares: Zero-debt stock with losses in 2025 leaves investors in a fix; what lies ahead?

Shares of ITC are set to end the year 2025 on a negative note. The zero debt stock has fallen 11% this year, leaving investors guessing about the outlook of their investment next year. The FMCG stock has seen selling pressure falling 5% over two years. Falling 9% in a year, ITC shares have been trading in a range for the last 6 months. It has moved between Rs 396.80 and Rs 421 during the period.     

ITC shares stand near their 52 week-low of Rs 391.50 reached on March 3, 2025. However, the FMCG stock has more than doubled investor wealth clocking 108% returns in five years. ITC shares closed 1.27% higher at Rs 407.65 in the current session. Market cap of the firm stood at Rs 5.10 lakh crore. 

Amid the ongoing correction on the ITC counter, here's a look at the outlook of the stock. 

Jigar S Patel from Anand Rathi said, "ITC is expected to trade in a defined range in the short term, with strong support placed at Rs 398 and immediate resistance at Rs 412. The stock has been consolidating near these levels, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum. A decisive and sustained move above the Rs 412 resistance could act as a trigger for further upside, opening the path towards the Rs 418 level. On the downside, the Rs 398 zone is likely to act as a crucial demand area and may limit any corrective move. Overall, the anticipated short-term trading range for ITC is Rs 398–Rs 418, and traders should watch for a breakout for clearer directional cues."

Global brokerage Macquarie has an outperform call on the stock with a price target of Rs 500. The brokerage believes that concerns on high per-stick taxes shared in draft excise document are misplaced, as such rates represent cap and not applicable rates.

It expects a potential moderation in discounting post move to GST as percentage of retail price and moderation in leaf tobacco costs driving 10% plus FY27E cigarette EBIT growth.

The brokerage has raised EPS/TP 2%/4% to factor these tailwinds. It believes that re-rating needs clarity that cigarette tax will not increase materially post levy of new cess.

AR Ramachandran, part time SEBI registered Research Analyst, Tips2trades said, "ITC stock price is bullish on the daily charts with strong support at Rs 400. A Daily close above the resistance of Rs 408 could lead to a target of Rs 426 in the near term."

Deven Choksey Research has a price target of Rs 486 on the FMCG stock. 

The brokerage said the management continued to step up brand investments and cost efficiencies to reinforce long-term profitability in the FMCG portfolio. 

The management expects softer leaf and input procurement costs in H2FY26E to support profitability recovery and sustain competitive trade interventions in the cigarette business, according to Deven Choksey Research.