Silver delivers 2x gold returns in 2025; what's in store for 2026? Navneet Damani answers

After years of underperformance, silver delivered a solid 145 per cent return in 2025, two times  that of gold's 77 per cent return during the same period. The outperformance came after silver's 7-11 per cent returns over 2023 to 2025 against gold's 14-21 per cent return.  
Navneet Damani, Senior Group Vice President and Head Research at MOFSL said silver was at Rs 1 lakh at the start of 2025 and expectations were it could be at Rs 1.40-1.50 lakh per kg at the end of 2025. Mid-year, it hit Rs 1.50 lakh and Damani's team  revised its target to Rs 2 lakh and later on to Rs 2.45 lakh per kg.

"But it looks like Rs 2.45, what we were anticipating in 2026, could come well within 2025 itself. So, now from where do we find fresh targets, where do we find the courage to go all in again and advise investors, is something that is playing in the mind of a lot of analysts and investors," Damani said in an interview to Business Today. 

Damani said 2025 has been a great year as far as commodities is concerned, with massive value creation seen in gold, silver and copper. To top it up, aluminium also joining the party. Thanks to 17-18 per cent fall crude oil prices, has given negative returns of about 17-18% in a very large way, so that has kind of balanced a lot of economic development or economic geopolitical uncertainty which was hovering around in the global ecosystem.

"If we recall 2007-08, that was the time where subprime crisis happened and prices melted like anything and then probably recouped, gold and silver typically recouped, understanding that these are the only safe haven assets where the investors could park their money," Damani recalled. 

He said there was extreme volatility in the commodity market in 2011-12, where silver prices surged from about $29-30 to $51 and then corrected immediately in the following year. Post that, gold prices from 2012-20 went on to double up from $1,000 dollars to $2000 and eventually corrected.

"So, we have seen pockets and sustained year of bullishness, but this kind of momentum that we are seeing in gold and silver at this point is not we have seen in history in the last 40-50 years also. So, this is one of the best years that we have seen," Damani said.

Damani said when Wright Brothers cornered the silver market in 1980, that is one instance where prices surpassed the prevailing level, but post that 2025 has been the best year so far.

Silver vs gold: 2026 outlook

"Well, ever since 2014, I have tried to divert the attention towards silver as well because we were overtly bullish because that is a market where there was severe acute shortage and the demand side story looks very prominent. And that's what we are seeing that 2025, since day one till now, silver has outperformed gold and is almost giving you about 1.8 per cent return higher than what gold has given you," Damani said.

Damani said silver rallied a little too fast, which is a little difficult for a lot of investors to fathom. He said he wants to bring focus to gold-silver ratio, which is typically the 40-50 on an average.

"So, it is a catch-up rally vis-a-vis gold what we are seeing and historically, we are at about 65 per cent to the gold-silver ratio, which is typically the 40-50 year average. So, in briefly, we went to 110-111 in the middle of 2025, but post that, we have now corrected back to 65-66, which is typically the historical average. So, it looks like both are eventually balanced at this point in time and what from now year in 2026 is somebody's guess," Damani said.

Damani said his team has been working on an annual report for 2026 and it is anticipating gold targets of $4,700, $4,850 in a best-case scenario. He felt the targets can be achieved this year itself.

"Same goes for silver, our target standard is $77 in a best-case scenario for 2026, but it looks like we will have to revise it ahead and maybe a $90 target which looks like a 2027-2028 possibility would be delivered by the end of 2026-2027," Damani said.

He, however, cautioned investors to be very cautious as the momentum has been very ferocious. Investors living in FOMO would want to jump into gold and silver at this point in time, but there could be a price correction or price consolidation anytime soon, he warned.